The top 2 seem pretty much locked with Alcaraz and Sinner. But the #3 spot is up for grabs.
The way I see it, the race is between 3 players: Zverev, Djokovic and Fritz. Let's see the case for each one of them.
Zverev currently leads the race to the #3 spot, but he has been in poor form after the Australian Open with the exception of few tournaments (Munich, Canada masters, Cincinnati masters before he got hurt in his back). He hasn't been impressive at the Asian swing either, with no titles above 250 level and only one final in Shanghai masters, back in 2019. But he tends to perform better indoors, bringing even his A- game indoors can get him some good deep runs and potentially a title above 250 level (he'll do very well to win more than 1 such title considering his competition). The question is, can he avoid bizarre losses like he had in Shanghai masters and Swiss indoors last year?
Djokovic is the one who has the highest ceiling this season among the three. But he's also the one who played the least. Assuming he only plays one Masters tournament and his participation in the YEC is also in doubt, he'll probably need a good combination of results to get the #3 spot against two players who play a full calendar - something like a combo of Masters final+250 title+YEC SF. Can Djokovic find the motivation and the level to go far in this part of the season, when there are no longer Grand Slam tournaments?
Fritz might be the biggest question mark - his current A game usually beats every player outside of Djokovic and the current top 2 on hard courts, but the question is whether he can bring it when it matters most. He'll probably need good results (SF or better) in 2 of the remaining 3 Big Tournaments. Paris masters hasn't been kind to him (maybe the new venue will be friendlier though), while the conditions in Turin are pretty much Taylor-made. I think he'll also need a final or a title in a tournament above 250 level to get the year-end #3 ranking.
So which of these three players will end 2025 as the #3? Is there anyother player who can go on a tear and pull a surprise?
Discuss.
The way I see it, the race is between 3 players: Zverev, Djokovic and Fritz. Let's see the case for each one of them.
Zverev currently leads the race to the #3 spot, but he has been in poor form after the Australian Open with the exception of few tournaments (Munich, Canada masters, Cincinnati masters before he got hurt in his back). He hasn't been impressive at the Asian swing either, with no titles above 250 level and only one final in Shanghai masters, back in 2019. But he tends to perform better indoors, bringing even his A- game indoors can get him some good deep runs and potentially a title above 250 level (he'll do very well to win more than 1 such title considering his competition). The question is, can he avoid bizarre losses like he had in Shanghai masters and Swiss indoors last year?
Djokovic is the one who has the highest ceiling this season among the three. But he's also the one who played the least. Assuming he only plays one Masters tournament and his participation in the YEC is also in doubt, he'll probably need a good combination of results to get the #3 spot against two players who play a full calendar - something like a combo of Masters final+250 title+YEC SF. Can Djokovic find the motivation and the level to go far in this part of the season, when there are no longer Grand Slam tournaments?
Fritz might be the biggest question mark - his current A game usually beats every player outside of Djokovic and the current top 2 on hard courts, but the question is whether he can bring it when it matters most. He'll probably need good results (SF or better) in 2 of the remaining 3 Big Tournaments. Paris masters hasn't been kind to him (maybe the new venue will be friendlier though), while the conditions in Turin are pretty much Taylor-made. I think he'll also need a final or a title in a tournament above 250 level to get the year-end #3 ranking.
So which of these three players will end 2025 as the #3? Is there anyother player who can go on a tear and pull a surprise?
Discuss.
