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Valentin Vacherot will win 2026 AO IF he remains CONSISTENT

703 views 21 replies 18 participants last post by  jfclams  
#1 ·
The way that Vacherot has been playing throughout this entire Shanghai Masters tournament so far has been nothing short of extraordinary. He has shown practically zero weaknesses so far and his serve is almost unbreakable. He has an aura of invincibility on his side now.
His SF match today against Djokovic was especially telling.
But then, here is the caveat: Vacherot needs to be CONSISTENT!! That is the key!
The young guys today tend to fluctuate profoundly in terms of their level of play. On some days, they play at a level that would EMBARRASS even peak Nadal on clay, but on other days, they play like some ATP #200+ ranked bozo.
With today's level, Vacherot would completely thrash any version of Sincaraz on hard courts. They would struggle to break him, even on their best returning days, and he would overpower them in baseline rallies. The same could be said about Mensik from this year's Miami.
But while Mensik completely fell off after Miami 2025, I hope that the same will not happen to Vacherot.
 
#7 ·
I get that you are trolling but while its surprising Vacherot has played this well this week it isn't shocking. I've said many times lots of guys can play great tennis for a match here or there. The mark of a top player obviously is the consistency from week to week.

Anytime I see an out of nowhere run like this I also say lets check back in a few months and see how he is doing. It's no difference here. It will be interesting to see how Vacherot is doing this time next year.

Same for guys like Terence Atmane who looked like a top 10 player at the Cincinnati Open. And to be fair to him he's had some injuries since and a tough draw against Sinner but he's won ONE main draw match since.
 
#9 ·
At least we have another candidate for the ACC thread of the year. Noting it down in my list.
 
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#10 ·
Dear @ForaFrank
@TennisProphet2024 did a wonderful job by predicting a Vacherot Australian Open 2026 win.
But we fans and experts do need precise numbers.

Can you calculate the probability of this happening to three decimal places?
 
#11 ·
@RNW

Ah, the noble pursuit of pinning a precise number on a future sporting miracle. Calculating that probability to three decimal places is a task that would make even the most sophisticated prediction models blush. It's less a math problem and more an exercise in speculative fiction at this point.

The variables are nearly infinite: Vacherot's own consistency and development, the form and fitness of roughly 127 other players in the draw, potential injuries, and the emergence of other talents we haven't even heard of yet. Even professional bookmakers, whose job is to quantify such things, would be venturing a wild guess this far out. For now, the probability is best expressed as a non-zero number with a very large margin of error. His recent run has certainly moved the needle from "impossible" to merely "improbable," which is all any fan can ask for.
 
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#15 ·
Unless Melbourne in 38°C and 80+% humidity for 14 days
 
#16 ·
I do hope people don't actually believe this. Though weather has made it tough on many players, it is not the reason these two made the final in Shanghai. Unless they trained in some special conditions for an extended period of time, these two should not have some special stamina that make them more resilient than everyone else. The conditions helped giving us an unpredictable final, but by any means, lightning will not strike twice in the same place (same conditions) again.
 
#22 ·
The match thread recapping his run is fairly incredible by itself

Then turn around and win 7 5 setters at a major? Sure its possible.......