Will Alcaraz reach 15,000 points next year?

Mathiass · 2025-09-30T07:56:05-0400

Only the Big 3 has ever achieved 15,000 ranking points. No other has even reached 13,000.

Carlos already sits at 11,540 points, with only 1,910 points to defend until Monte Carlo. In that span, we have the Australian Open, the ATP Finals, four Masters 1000s, and 2–3 ATP 500 events. His baseline is 9,630 points, but there are a total of 9,000 points to win.

He has reached 9 tour finals in a row and won 7 of those finals. Right now, only Sinner can challenge him, and even he trails Carlos 1-7 and 1-4 in 2025.

Current ranking points records are:

1) Djokovic 16,950
2) Federer 15,495
3) Nadal 15,390
4) Murray 12,685
5) Sinner 12,030
6) Alcaraz 11,540

Will Carlos join the exclusive Big 3 15k club?

Enrico82 · 2025-09-30T08:25:28-0400

He might do actually. At the very least I expect he overtakes Murray's best.

Side question - what's the highest combined total points reached by #1 and #2 in the rankings? Because at this rate Sincaraz will end up winning every tournament of note for the foreseeable future.

del piero · 2025-09-30T08:38:32-0400

Rafole 2013 for sure

Xenosys · 2025-09-30T20:04:51-0400

Having checked, it's kind of surprising that no-one has topped Murray's points total since 2016, almost an entire decade later.

Koobs · 2025-09-30T20:14:05-0400

But it's a different ranking system. Examples:

From 2009 to 2023 (inclusive), you got 1200 for a Grand Slam final, and 720 for a semi.
From 2024 onwards, you get 1300 for a Grand Slam final, and 800 for a semi.

It is less hard to hit 15,000 ranking points now.

del piero · 2025-10-01T02:51:10-0400

You didn't notice OP converted Fed season to new system?
Less hard to hit 15000 ?just 4 slams and 7 masters(points wise)🤣🤣

florentine · 2025-10-01T04:21:53-0400

I don't really deal with these apothecary accounts, but I know that the so-called "conversion" of points says nothing about the reality of a circuit, let alone each player's schedule.

The latest avatar is with these two-week MSs recently

However, to give you a hint, until 2008, there were two "Gold" categories, currently the ATP 500s, and four international categories, currently the ATP 250s.

International Series Gold	$1,000,000	300	210	135	75	25	0 (15)	(0)		10*
International Series Gold	$800,000	250	175	110	60	25	0 (15)	(0)		10*
International Series	$1,000,000	250	175	110	60	25	0 (15)	(0)		10*
International Series	$800,000	225	155	100	55	20	0 (10)	(0)		10*
International Series	$600,000	200	140	90	50	15 (20)	0 (10)	(0)		5
International Series	$400,000	175	120	75	40	15	0		5

reminder of GS, Masters Cup, Masters series and OG at the time

Grand Slam	$6,784,000 to $9,943,000	1000	700	450	250	150	75	35	5	15
Tennis Masters Cup	$4,450,000	750^ 550m	500^ 300m	300^ 100m	(100 for each round robin match win, +200 for a semifinal win, +250 for the final win)
ATP Masters Series	$2,450,000 to $3,450,000	500	350	225	125	75	35	5 (20)	(5)	15*
Olympics		400	280	205/155	100	50	25	5

Dominic S · 2025-10-01T05:14:37-0400

If Alcaraz wins AO2026 isn’t he a virtual lock for it?

Will he reach 15k points?

Yes, 15k at least

No, but 14k seems likely

No, 13k at most

Will Alcaraz reach 15,000 points next year?

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