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Def won't be his "last" chance, he will have more chances in the future and will like his chances in a B03 format. Nonetheless, this is a great opportunity for him to win another M1000 and his 5th Shanghai, which will be very hard to surpass in the future for anyone
 
I get the argument, but we’ve heard this story before. "Last chance" sounds too definitive at this point. All these twenties people have been saying Djokovic has hit his physical ceiling, and every season he finds a way to move it again. After his deportation and ban, he'd be done winning Australian Opens, yet the next year he was allowed to come back and did it again.

Yes, he’s 38, and it does get harder to win Masters events at that age. But the truth is that only two players, Alcaraz and Sinner, go into a match against him as clear favourites. Everyone else still starts as the underdog. That's been the status quo for quite some time now.

We’re also talking about the player who holds the record for records held - among those most Masters titles. Along with Federer he's redefined what the end of a prime looks like. The window may be smaller now, but it isn’t closed. People have been calling time on his career for years, and somehow he’s still rewriting history, albeit at a slower pace.
 
Looking at the draw, he won't get a better chance than this. Literally no one of note in the bottom half left bar Rune. In the top half there's a washed up Medvedev who will probably lose to Tien again. I suspect one of De Minaur or Musetti makes the final, and both have a chance in Bo3 against Djokovic, probably De Minaur a better chance on hard and in gruelling physical conditions.
 
LOL you're such a Djokovic hater, didn't even bother replying to my last comment cuz you knew you lost the argument.

What you don't realize is that it's even easier for him to win BECAUSE it's best of 3 and he only needs to win 2 sets instead of 3

Some ppl never change...
Beyond clueless... and wonders why I didn't respond.

Every Federer,Nadal & Djokovic fan with a brain knows it's easier to beat them in best of 3 than the other because of many factors.

Yeah... I'm sure Tabilo,Botic,Arnaldi & co would've beaten Djokovic in a best of 5 slam match instead.That's what I'm referring to.. That it's easier for lower ranked players to take them out in THAT environment so he has to be even more wary of players of losing as opposed to slams... eg Mensik in Miami.

Djokovic hater? .. LOL! Clueless.

Yeah,I'll keep replying to the person who thinks he's going to keep racking up those titles towards 110 when he's barely won anything in the last 2 years & hasn't changed his schedule... nor intended to.
 
He was though. He was competitive at age 35 & 36 y/o old. Obviously Novak being competitive at age 38 y/o certainly wins there. But it not like Nadal stopped being competitive at 29 y/o or something.
Agreed. All Big 3 members won their last slams at age 36.

The difference is that Nadal fell off a cliff after his last slam win, whereas the decline was more gradual for Federer and Djokovic.
 
Beyond clueless... and wonders why I didn't respond.

Every Federer,Nadal & Djokovic fan with a brain knows it's easier to beat them in best of 3 than the other because of many factors.

Yeah... I'm sure Tabilo,Botic,Arnaldi & co would've beaten Djokovic in a best of 5 slam match instead.That's what I'm referring to.. That it's easier for lower ranked players to take them out in THAT environment so he has to be even more wary of players of losing as opposed to slams... eg Mensik in Miami.

Djokovic hater? .. LOL! Clueless.

Yeah,I'll keep replying to the person who thinks he's going to keep racking up those titles towards 110 when he's barely won anything in the last 2 years & hasn't changed his schedule... nor intended to.
In the past and in their 20s/early 30s obv it was harder to beat them in Bo5 than Bo3, but nowadays the younger guys are physically much stronger and in better shape than Novak so obv the longer the match goes the more likely and the bigger advantage they will have over him from a pure endurance standpoint.

Sorry but if you don't realize that then you're a complete fool
 
In the past and in their 20s/early 30s obv it was harder to beat them in Bo5 than Bo3, but nowadays the younger guys are physically much stronger and in better shape than Novak so obv the longer the match goes the more likely and the bigger advantage they will have over him from a pure endurance standpoint.

Sorry but if you don't realize that then you're a complete fool
Really? Last I checked, Djokovic just beat Hanfmann, a player five years younger, in a nearly three-hour test of attrition. Conditions were brutal, yet he handled them better than most - even Sinner couldn’t continue in this heat. Sure, on average the younger player will cope better physically, but it’s not as black and white as you make it seem.
 
Agreed. All Big 3 members won their last slams at age 36.

The difference is that Nadal fell off a cliff after his last slam win, whereas the decline was more gradual for Federer and Djokovic.
I'd say the decline was rather steep in Federer's case as well, following the 2020 Australian Open. After shutting down his season and coming back in 2021, his level in 2021 was nowhere near his 2019 level or even his 2020 Australian Open level.
I was really surprised he managed to reach the QF stage at Wimbledon in his last participation.
 
I'd say the decline was rather steep in Federer's case as well, following the 2020 Australian Open. After shutting down his season and coming back in 2021, his level in 2021 was nowhere near his 2019 level or even his 2020 Australian Open level.
I was really surprised he managed to reach the QF stage at Wimbledon in his last participation.
After the 2020 AO, for sure, but I meant decline after their last slam win.

Federer won his last slam at the 2018 AO and was still a top 5 player for almost two more full seasons (rest of 2018 and 2019).

Djokovic won his last slam at the 2023 USO and was still competitive in 2024 and 2025.

In contrast, Nadal fell off a cliff quickly after his 2022 FO win.
 
After the 2020 AO, for sure, but I meant decline after their last slam win.

Federer won his last slam at the 2018 AO and was still a top 5 player for almost two more full seasons (rest of 2018 and 2019).

Djokovic won his last slam at the 2023 USO and was still competitive in 2024 and 2025.

In contrast, Nadal fell off a cliff quickly after his 2022 FO win.
There might've been a slight dip in level for Federer between the 2018 Australian Open and 2019, but it can't be called a decline. Outside of the Australian Open, Federer did better in most of the other tournaments he played in 2019 compared to 2018. This is not the case with Djokovic between 2023 and 2024.
I do agree about your main point about Djokovic's decline being mild while Nadal fell off a cliff.
 
There might've been a slight dip in level for Federer between the 2018 Australian Open and 2019, but it can't be called a decline. Outside of the Australian Open, Federer did better in most of the other tournaments he played in 2019 compared to 2018. This is not the case with Djokovic between 2023 and 2024.
I do agree about your main point about Djokovic's decline being mild while Nadal fell off a cliff.
Fair point that 2018 and 2019 were similar for Fed. I guess it depends on where you draw the line.

Post-AO 2018 until 2020 AO was definitely a step down for Fed. He was still a top 5 player and managed to win a Masters, but between 2017 AO and 2018 AO, he was just absolutely dominant (along with Nadal), winning 3/5 slams, 3 Masters, and having a >90% win rate.

In my mind, after his last slam win, Fed's level declined such that he was still a very good player for two years, but just not quite good enough to win another slam.

Similarly, after his last slam win, Djokovic's level declined such that he was still a very good player for two years, but just not quite good enough to win another slam.

Of course, Djokovic's story is not done yet, but I would be surprised if he can win another slam.
 
I'd say the decline was rather steep in Federer's case as well, following the 2020 Australian Open. After shutting down his season and coming back in 2021, his level in 2021 was nowhere near his 2019 level or even his 2020 Australian Open level.
Obviously, Federer's decline was "brutal," even very abrupt, after the 2020 AO... during which he was already injured, by the way.

And what was even more abrupt was his double knee surgery during the year, which prevented him from returning to the court until ...
March 2021, in Doha, one year later with the results we know...
After a hard-won first match against Evans 7-6(8) 3-6 7-5
and this

08-03-2021DohaHardQFL
Image
Nikoloz Basilashvili
Rank 42
d.
Image
Roger Federer (2)
Rank 6
3-6 6-1 7-5

so a year without playing... the year he turned 40. :rolleyes:

And he doesn't play until... Geneva on clay... just before RG...
These two additional months without playing didn't indicate anything good, and this was confirmed.
this is immediately evident on the court from the first match
16-05-2021GenevaClayR16L
Image
Pablo Andujar
Rank 76
d.
Image
Roger Federer (1)
Rank 8
6-4 4-6 6-4


Coming from Federer, that's certainly not a tank...

In this context, it's almost miraculous that he reached R16 (he w/o vs Berrettini) in RG after a very laborious R32...
30-05-2021Roland GarrosClayR32W
Image
Roger Federer (8)
Rank 8
d.
Image
Dominik Koepfer
Rank 57
7-6(5) 6-7(3) 7-6(4) 7-5


and especially QF at Wimbledon (he also benefited from Mannarino's injury in 1st round).
28-06-2021WimbledonGrassR128WR
Image
Roger Federer (6)
Rank 8
d.
Image
Adrian Mannarino
Rank 41
6-4 6-7(3) 3-6 6-2 RET

Previously, his "journey" in Halle was like his first tournament in Doha: 1 match won, 1 match lost. (FAA 4-6 6-3 6-2 )

8 won 5 lost, Federer knew enough about his level and his body to play the last match of his career against Hubert.


Nadal's last 2 seasons in 2023-2024 at 37-38 were of a different order, for different reasons, and as it is different from Djoko's in 2024-25 at 37-38 now.. so I don't know what the point is in trying to compare the "speed" of decline in such different cases..

The only common point is that they maintained a high level near or after 35 years, much higher than expected at that age, compared to the younger generations who had little to oppose them concretely. :dunno:

Murray's career was much more "brutally" impacted when he turned 30 in mid-2017.
 
Not the last but definitely a great one.
Nothing is given though and he could still lose.
He's already played B2B long 3 setters.
 
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