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This is Novak Djokovic's last chance to win a Masters title

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1.6K views 57 replies 38 participants last post by  Greco  
#1 ·
Novak Djokovic might have one last chance to win an ATP Masters 1000 title at the 2025 Shanghai Masters.

Djokovic is 38. He won't get any younger, any quicker, or any healthier. Athletes who compete into their 40s are more prone to injuries, and those injuries also take longer to heal. That's just the reality of biology.

Throughout his tennis career, Djokovic has done an exceptional job of taking care of his body. However, playing at such a high level at 38 is also something we have never seen before. In fact, no man older than 37 years, 1 month, and 24 days has ever won a Grand Slam title. Ken Rosewall, who won the 1972 Australian Open, is the oldest man to win a major.

The only other players who managed to be competitive at a similar age were Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, and, obviously, Djokovic. Federer is the second-oldest major champion, achieving his last Grand Slam triumph at the 2018 Australian Open when he was 36 years, 5 months, and 7 days old.

Djokovic's last Grand Slam title came at the 2023 US Open. He was 36 years, 3 months, and 6 days old at the time. When it comes to the ATP Masters 1000 champions, the list is very similar.

Federer won the 2019 Miami Open at 37 years and 235 days, while Djokovic triumphed at the 2023 Paris Masters when he was 36 years and 167 days old. Today, Djokovic is more than a year older than the oldest male Grand Slam champion and almost a year older than the oldest Masters winner. He is also nearly two years older than he was when he last won a Masters title.

Of course, records are meant to be broken, but there are also reasons why no one older than 37 ever managed to win a big title (Djokovic was also 37 when he won the 2024 Paris Olympics). The previously mentioned higher risk of injuries and longer recovery times are just two of the reasons, but one of the main reasons is that there is nowhere to hide on a tennis court.

Why Novak Djokovic has his last chance to win a Masters title in Shanghai
 
#2 ·
All of this wall of text just to say that his chances of having the top 4 players in the world out by the 4th round (Alcaraz o/c withdrew ahead of time) and only two players left from the top ten are almost zero in the future?
 
#4 ·
He's got a few years left in him
making 4 SFs and only losing to the top 2 is a great achievement

even if he could just make one SF at a slam a year, i would encourage him to keep going
all it takes is for one of the top 2 to get injured and a shock early exit for the other

no one, male or female ever got to 25. That needs to be the focus, that needs to be the goal

25 slams

they can bad mouth you, they can hate the fact you overcame fedal, they can resent you for beating fedal in the h2h
they can resent you for not coming from a "preferable" country or not saying the right things.
They hate Margaret court, she's definitely a bigot, but none of that should ever matter
all that matters is the result
 
#6 ·
It's actually easier for him to lose as it's best of 3 & as Federer once said all it takes is a player to serve well in a set,nab it and then put the pressure on in the 2nd.

If Rune makes it a possible semi-final meeting with him he really might fancy himself against him too and try to make up for his other horrible Masters finals chokes.
 
#8 ·
He peaked this year USO QF against Taylor Fritz. I have the grainy workout cell pics to prove it:

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#9 ·
Put his all in that match (I mean look at this outfit, black shades and all) after that its downhill descent
 
#11 ·
If Djokovic wins this year's Shanghai masters, can his 2025 season be considered better than Federer's 2019 or at least equal to it?
If it does happen, Djokovic will have the stand-alone record for most hard court titles and will surpass Federer in the total number of titles. They are currently on 108 each.
 
#13 ·
If Djokovic wins this year's Shanghai masters, can his 2025 season be considered better than Federer's 2019 or at least equal to it?
If it does happen, Djokovic will have the stand-alone record for most hard court titles and will surpass Federer in the total number of titles. They are currently on 108 each.
No since he got destroyed in every slam SF
 
#17 ·
No Alcaraz, Sinner and Zverev. Rune and Medvedev are probable opponents in the Semis and Finals.
And he has one day rest between match days in a three-setter tournament. So yeah, this is his best chance if he really wants it. Chinese support might just be enough to make hime want it.
 
#18 · (Edited)
Of course, records are meant to be broken, but there are also reasons why no one older than 37 ever managed to win a big title (Djokovic was also 37 when he won the 2024 Paris Olympics).
Yes, the main reason is the decline in performance with age.

But there are cycles that are difficult to predict.

For example, for the YEC, Federer was the oldest winner in 2010-2011 at ages 29 and 30.

The previous winner was... Nastase 1975 at age 29.

Djokovic won his last in 2015, at age 28, and then 7 and 8 years later, he won two in a row at ages 35 and 36.


In a favorable context, depending on the participants and the player's form, anything is possible as long as the player is active.

As a reminder, I'm posting this.

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#22 ·
Def won't be his "last" chance, he will have more chances in the future and will like his chances in a B03 format. Nonetheless, this is a great opportunity for him to win another M1000 and his 5th Shanghai, which will be very hard to surpass in the future for anyone
 
#23 ·
I get the argument, but we’ve heard this story before. "Last chance" sounds too definitive at this point. All these twenties people have been saying Djokovic has hit his physical ceiling, and every season he finds a way to move it again. After his deportation and ban, he'd be done winning Australian Opens, yet the next year he was allowed to come back and did it again.

Yes, he’s 38, and it does get harder to win Masters events at that age. But the truth is that only two players, Alcaraz and Sinner, go into a match against him as clear favourites. Everyone else still starts as the underdog. That's been the status quo for quite some time now.

We’re also talking about the player who holds the record for records held - among those most Masters titles. Along with Federer he's redefined what the end of a prime looks like. The window may be smaller now, but it isn’t closed. People have been calling time on his career for years, and somehow he’s still rewriting history, albeit at a slower pace.
 
#24 ·
Looking at the draw, he won't get a better chance than this. Literally no one of note in the bottom half left bar Rune. In the top half there's a washed up Medvedev who will probably lose to Tien again. I suspect one of De Minaur or Musetti makes the final, and both have a chance in Bo3 against Djokovic, probably De Minaur a better chance on hard and in gruelling physical conditions.
 
#40 ·
Not the last but definitely a great one.
Nothing is given though and he could still lose.
He's already played B2B long 3 setters.