This is going to be the third Grand Slam final for both players. Zverev lost his previous two, Sinner won both he has played so far. Will Zverev win his first Grand Slam title or will Sinner win his third?
Given Sinner's record in finals since the second half of 2023, he has to be considered the heavy favourite to win this match. He also produced a higher level of ball striking than Zverev, though the margins are rather small.
The matches between these players tend to be extremely competitive, no one-sided beatdowns. Zverev beat Sinner at the 2023 US Open in a grueling 5-set match that lasted 4 hours and 41 minutes; Sinner won at the 2024 Cincinnati masters via deciding-set tiebreaker, in a match that went past the 3-hour mark. I'm expecting a rather close match here as well, whether a 4-setter or a 5-setter.
Considering Zverev's slightly superior fitness (still as we saw today), winning the 1st set will be crucial for Sinner in this match. As long as he can keep a high 1st serve percentage in his service games he should be favoured to win the set. A lower 1st serve percentage means more baseline points where Sinner will have to find a way through Zverev's defense from neutral, as Zverev is doing a better job on the 2nd serve return than he did last year.
Another key is who is going to take the initiative first in a rally - both players showed they can make more winners when the go for their shots, but weren't willing to do so on a regular basis. Sinner has a slight advantage here, as the gap between the forehands in favour of Sinner is bigger than the one between the backhands (where Zverev's advantage is unclear).
How Zverev serves when break point down is also going to have a massive effect. Tiebreakers will give Sinner a slight advatnage due to his superior mental strength in high pressure matches.
I foresee this match being the best one in the second week by far and I predict Sinner to win it in 4 tight sets.
Given Sinner's record in finals since the second half of 2023, he has to be considered the heavy favourite to win this match. He also produced a higher level of ball striking than Zverev, though the margins are rather small.
The matches between these players tend to be extremely competitive, no one-sided beatdowns. Zverev beat Sinner at the 2023 US Open in a grueling 5-set match that lasted 4 hours and 41 minutes; Sinner won at the 2024 Cincinnati masters via deciding-set tiebreaker, in a match that went past the 3-hour mark. I'm expecting a rather close match here as well, whether a 4-setter or a 5-setter.
Considering Zverev's slightly superior fitness (still as we saw today), winning the 1st set will be crucial for Sinner in this match. As long as he can keep a high 1st serve percentage in his service games he should be favoured to win the set. A lower 1st serve percentage means more baseline points where Sinner will have to find a way through Zverev's defense from neutral, as Zverev is doing a better job on the 2nd serve return than he did last year.
Another key is who is going to take the initiative first in a rally - both players showed they can make more winners when the go for their shots, but weren't willing to do so on a regular basis. Sinner has a slight advantage here, as the gap between the forehands in favour of Sinner is bigger than the one between the backhands (where Zverev's advantage is unclear).
How Zverev serves when break point down is also going to have a massive effect. Tiebreakers will give Sinner a slight advatnage due to his superior mental strength in high pressure matches.
I foresee this match being the best one in the second week by far and I predict Sinner to win it in 4 tight sets.
