I would say 10-15%. Until there is a serious threat on grass then there is always a chance. Djoko can run into a hot server and lose his nerve at a moments notice. I like Stefanos and Zverev behind Feds, but Feds has a great chance. As wide a tourney as USO 2020 post Djoko debacle.
P.S. I admit that, at around 2015-2016, 2012 Wimbledon would be his last grand slam title and I thought he would never win a grand slam. He proved me wrong. Not this time. It's over. He still can make tons of money though.
You just can’t write these guys off... The probability may be smaller every year, but it won’t be zero until they retire for good.
There are really few people who can be considered as favorite against him in Wimbledon, so all it takes is 2 weeks of good physical shape and a few things going his way.
I would say it depends which Grand Slam and also the draw is a huge factor:
AO: second best chances for him after Wimbledon. Draw has to be good for him (easy first week etc.)
RG: Never forget he was in the semifinals in 2019. Still his chances are almost zero because he is older now.
WIM: I still like his chances at Wimbledon. He doesn't have to play long matches and there aren't a lot good grass players at the moment. He is for me in 2021 still the second favourite after Djokovic at Wimbledon 2021 with obviously a lot of questions mark.
USO: A little bit better chances at the US Open than at Roland Garros but still low chances. I think he has to play to many "longer" matches there to be fit enough for the last rounds. But if the draw opens and maybe 1 walkover his chances increases.
With Federer a lot depends of the draw and his form in this 2 weeks. If the luck is with him as it was very often you never know with him.
No, it's over for him.
Someone Federer's age cannot and will not win 7 matches anymore.
The desire is there, the motivation is there, the will is there, but it is physically impossible for this to happen.
Fred dominated a Djoker that didn’t try hard but still lost. Imagine if Fred didn’t dominate.
Didn’t Fred need severe luck twice in 2004 and 2009 Wimbledons against the slow returner Roddick? He laughed at Roddick but admitted that he needed luck and bad weather to win.