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Who will finish the year as number 1?

  • Novak

    Votes: 42 70.0%
  • Rafael

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  • Dominic

    Votes: 10 16.7%
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Discussion Starter #1
I was wondering with Thiem probably winning the US Open since Novak got kicked out and having only reached R1 last year (should then jump from currently 7k points to around 9k points), and the remaining tournaments that probably most players will play the upcoming few months being
  • Rome/Madrid (Nadal won last year, Djoko reached the final, Thiem reached last 32)
  • French Open (Nadal won last year, Djoko reached the semis, Thiem reached the final)
  • Shanghai (Nadal did not participate, Djoko and Thiem both reached the last 8)
  • Paris (Nadal withdrew in the semis, Djoko won and Thiem reached the last 8)
  • London O2 (Nadal won 2 matches, Djoko won 1 match and Thiem reached the final)
There is potential, especially for Dominic, for the players to grab couple more points till the end of the season.
--> For Thiem especially: Rome/Madrid, Shanghai and Paris
--> For Nadal especially: Shanghai and London
--> For Djoko especially: French Open, Shanghai but particularly London

Is Djoko going to play Rome?
Who of them has the best chances of finishing the year as number 1?
What are the most likely outcomes for the tournaments starting from next week onwards?
 

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There is potential, especially for Dominic, for the players to grab couple more points till the end of the season.
--> For Thiem especially: Rome/Madrid, Shanghai and Paris
--> For Nadal especially: Shanghai and London
--> For Djoko especially: French Open, Shanghai but particularly London
Shanghai is suspended
 

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After US Open, only Rome, RG, Paris Masters and WTF will be played. If Thiem wins USO I think it's highly unlikely he'll play Rome... WTF will decide Year End No1, I don't think Djokovic can improve his 2019 points tally in Rome and RG, and since he won Paris last year he can't earn any points there at all.

Only 5 days ago it looked like Djokovic is a lock for YE No1, but now we suddenly have a fight between three players. I do think that Djokovic will be YE No 1 though, London is one of his strongest tournaments.
 

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I dou
After US Open, only Rome, RG, Paris Masters and WTF will be played. If Thiem wins USO I think it's highly unlikely he'll play Rome... WTF will decide Year End No1, I don't think Djokovic can improve his 2019 points tally in Rome and RG, and since he won Paris last year he can't earn any points there at all.

Only 5 days ago it looked like Djokovic is a lock for YE No1, but now we suddenly have a fight between three players. I do think that Djokovic will be YE No 1 though, London is one of his strongest tournaments.
I doubt if there will be a YE #1 title award this year. I am just saying it might not be awarded.
 

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[QUOTE = "Borkob90, message: 41546853, membre: 140710"]
Londres est l'un de ses tournois les plus forts.
[/QUOTE]

As for Indian Wells-Miami, it was true before 2017, WTF has almost become the least predictable tournament since.

Even without Federer, Murray ... or Carreno Busta :), the potential players to tire him if not to beat him are numerous, Thiem, Medvedev, Zverev, Tsitsipas.
Even RBA can still qualify.


Despite this, I think the YE1 will be for Djoko.
 

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Why make this thread 2 rounds before the USO ends genius? When Thiem doesn't win the US Open (spoiler alert: he won't) the Nr.1 race is already decided in favour of Novak. Nadal or anyone else has no chance.
 

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THIEM:

If he wins USO he will have 9125 and will reduce the deficit from Novak to 1735 points. However, when WTF 2019 points are removed, he will lag another 600 points which comes to 2335. I doubt he will earn much points in Rome (to close to USO), but if he wins RG s well, he can re-join the race by winning Paris Masters. Bottom line, he needs to win two slams :), Paris Masters to be 500 points behind Nole before start of WTF

RAFA:
In similar position, If he wins Paris Masters, he will be 500-600 points behind NOle before start of WTF

I both scenarios Novak doesn't gain any points
 

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If Novak ends the year at #1, then they might not award the number one ranking. Anyone else, especially Nadal would get it.
 

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Djokovic may play Vienna this year since he has not played a lot of tennis,weeks as number 1 are important to him, in Paris he can neither lose nor gain points (he will play Paris as well,in my opinion), everything of course depends on covid situation
 

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Only 5 days ago it looked like Djokovic is a lock for YE No1, but now we suddenly have a fight between three players. I do think that Djokovic will be YE No 1 though, London is one of his strongest tournaments.
Especially as Federer won't participate there, his major threat indoors.
 

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Djokovic may play Vienna this year since he has not played a lot of tennis,weeks as number 1 are important to him, in Paris he can neither lose nor gain points (he will play Paris as well,in my opinion), everything of course depends on covid situation
Excellent point. He can play Vienna and skip Paris. Another Paris title only means one more masters in the race for most masters in history.
But extra 500 points could be huge in YE No1 and in weeks at No 1.

The only question is, having in mind he has ZERO from last year (due to lack of ATP 500s played), would Vienna 2020 points count for him ? Probably @Slasher1985 can answer that
 

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It would count, its best 18 tournaments from march 2019 to december 2020, no tournament would count twice, so for Djokovic it would be 4 GS,9 masters, Tokyo, Atp tournament,Dubai, WTF so that is 17 so he has a chance to add one more atp 500s, i hope im correct here...
 

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It Will Be A Tight Race Between Rafa, Novak and Dominic. Hopefully Rafa Will Finish Again Year End No.1 For 6th Time
 

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It would count, its best 18 tournaments from march 2019 to december 2020, no tournament would count twice, so for Djokovic it would be 4 GS,9 masters, Tokyo, Atp tournament,Dubai, WTF so that is 17 so he has a chance to add one more atp 500s, i hope im correct here...
I hope you are correct here. But not sure how ATP calculates zero point penalties from 2019 in 2020. Zero point penalty was awarded precisely for Vienna 2019 🤷
 

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Djokovic may play Vienna this year since he has not played a lot of tennis,weeks as number 1 are important to him, in Paris he can neither lose nor gain points (he will play Paris as well,in my opinion), everything of course depends on covid situation
You're not looking at everything. Just because he can't gain any points, doesn't mean he can't prevent his rivals from gaining points, which can mean just as much for year-end #1. If Nadal makes the final and Novak beats him, he prevented Nadal from gaining 400 points and winning his first ever Paris masters title.
 

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After US Open, only Rome, RG, Paris Masters and WTF will be played. If Thiem wins USO I think it's highly unlikely he'll play Rome... WTF will decide Year End No1, I don't think Djokovic can improve his 2019 points tally in Rome and RG, and since he won Paris last year he can't earn any points there at all.

Only 5 days ago it looked like Djokovic is a lock for YE No1, but now we suddenly have a fight between three players. I do think that Djokovic will be YE No 1 though, London is one of his strongest tournaments.
You make it sound like Novak is in true danger of losing YE #1, when in reality Nadal and Thiem would need to do things they've never done before to have any chance, and Novak would need to not add any points at Rome, FO and ATP Finals. When Medvedev beats Thiem soon, his chances are almost gone.

Also, saying Novak can't improve on a semifinal from RG or a final from Rome is really stupid. He's a 5-time champion combined at these events, and hasn't lost a match all year (I'm not counting the DQ).
 
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