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Last time in Davis Cup Federer was struggling with the back injury and afraid to screw it up again. Although to be honest Monfils played like a beast in that match, he is a mental headcase and can either show up as Clownfils or Monpère. So I think Fed in 3, worst case scenario.
H2H 8-3: Fed> Monfils
H2H 8-3: Fed> Monfils