Honestly don't see how Murray can lose this. Tomic, while a great player, has a very similar style to Murray: patient groundstrokes, random injections of pace, great placement, adequate first serve and good hands. Only difference is that Murray does all these things at least a little bit better at the moment and he has the experience plus mental strength.
Tomic certainly can take a set, but I don't see how he can finish the match against Murray. Tomic's game matches up much better against the top 3.