If Nadal plays like the last few days it`s all in Tsonga`s racket really.If he can avoid the stupid errors and play his aggressive game he should come through.Nadal`s confidence is not at this event and is certainly thinking of beeing fit for Davis Cup.
Tsonga has a great chance to advance here, but as bad as Nadal was today, he always seems to step it up in the matches that really matter. Think he's gonna make it in three sets, with Tsongas nerves costing him at least one set. Something like 3-6, 7-5, 6-2 Nadal.
Tsonga is on balance a better indoor player (I know that sounds ungenerous, but even though he is far less effective indoors than out, Nadal's record in big indoor tournaments is arguably better than Tsonga's) & there are question marks about Nadal's form, so I'd expect Tsonga to win, but his tendency to brainfart tends to cost him against this opponent.