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Discussion Starter #1 (Edited)
By coming in with massive physical disadvantage, it has to fulfill at least one the following requirements:
1. one of the finalists wins their SF in straight sets while another has a 5-set SF, OR
2. one of the finalists wins their SF in 4 sets and has one extra day-off while another has a 5-set SF

The Nadal-Thiem upcoming encounter fulfill BOTH of these, making Thiem a lot more handicapped.

When was the last time that winning GS final despite coming in with massive physical disadvantage happened?

1. As far as I am concerned, it was 2015 AO. Murray beat Berdych in a 4 setter SF and got two day-off while Djokovic beat Wawrinka in 5-set and got only 1 day-off. Djokovic showed visible sign of fatigue in the final but he still somehow went on to win it, making Murray very furious and bitter at the handshake.
2. And there's 2013 RG. But Nadal would beat Ferrer in the final even if he is on a wheelchair anyway.
3. The most impressive one is 2012 AO when Djokovic beat Nadal in the longest GS final ever.
Nadal had two day-off after beating Federer in SF and Djokovic only got one after the marathon with Murray.
4. Similar scenario in 2009 AO when Nadal had a 5-hour war of attrition against Verdasco with only one day rest thereafter, but he still beat Federer in that epic GS final.

So here are the examples:
2015 AO Djokovic def Murray
2013 RG Nadal def Ferrer
2012 AO Djokovic def Nadal
2009 AO Nadal def Federer


Meanwhile I could list a lot more examples of the other way round. (losing GS final after coming in with massive physical disadvantage):
2017 RG Nadal def Wawrinka
2016 Wimbledon Murray def Raonic
2016 AO Djokovic def Murray
2015 RG Wawrinka def Djokovic
2013 USO Nadal def Djokovic
2013 AO Djokovic def Murray
2010 USO Nadal def Djokovic
2010 RG Nadal def Soderling

(I traced no further back than 2005AO)


So 4 out of 12 times did the handicapped guy overcome the disadvantage. That's 1/3 so the stats isn't as bad as it seems.
(assuming in absolute ideal condition it should be 50-50 or 1/2)
But if you weigh in the fact that out of those 4 times Djokovic and Nadal are almost unbeatable in AO and RG final respectively regardless of fatigue, it still says a lot about the importance of coming in GS final fresh.
 

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Nadal and Djoker could do it in their physical prime, but not these days. These guys can't even recover well from brutal three set matches. Thiem is in his physical prime and is fit, but mentally it's tough. That was an emotional match. I think we all want him to make the score respectable. Last year, Nadal humiliated him a little, it could be worse this year.
 

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By coming in with massive physical disadvantage, it has to fulfill at least one the following requirements:
1. one of the finalists wins their SF in straight sets while another has a 5-set SF, OR
2. one of the finalists wins their SF in 4 sets and has one extra day-off while another has a 5-set SF

The Nadal-Thiem upcoming encounter fulfill BOTH of these, making Thiem a lot more handicapped.

When was the last time that winning GS final despite coming in with massive physical disadvantage happened?

1. As far as I am concerned, it was 2015 AO. Murray beat Berdych in a 4 setter SF and got two day-off while Djokovic beat Wawrinka in 5-set and got only 1 day-off. Djokovic showed visible sign of fatigue in the final but he still somehow went on to win it, making Murray very furious and bitter at the handshake.
2. And there's 2013 RG. But Nadal would beat Ferrer in the final even if he is on a wheelchair anyway.
3. The most impressive one is 2012 AO when Djokovic beat Nadal in the longest GS final ever.
Nadal had two day-off after beating Federer in SF and Djokovic only got one after the marathon with Murray.
4. Similar scenario in 2009 AO when Nadal had a 5-hour war of attrition against Verdasco with only one day rest thereafter, but he still beat Federer in that epic GS final.

So here are the examples:
2015 AO Djokovic def Murray
2013 RG Nadal def Ferrer
2012 AO Djokovic def Nadal
2009 AO Nadal def Federer



Meanwhile I could list a lot more examples of the other way round. (losing GS final after coming in with massive physical disadvantage):
2017 RG Nadal def Wawrinka
2016 Wimbledon Murray def Raonic
2016 AO Djokovic def Murray
2015 RG Wawrinka def Djokovic
2013 USO Nadal def Djokovic
2013 AO Djokovic def Murray
2010 USO Nadal def Djokovic
2010 RG Nadal def Soderling

(I traced no further back than 2005AO)


So 4 out of 12 times did the handicapped guy overcome the disadvantage. That's 1/3 so the stats isn't as bad as it seems.
(assuming in absolute ideal condition it should be 50-50 or 1/2)
But if you weigh in the fact that out of those 4 times Djokovic and Nadal are almost unbeatable in AO and RG final respectively regardless of fatigue, it still says a lot about the importance of coming in GS final fresh.
In all those examples the winner still had a full day of rest before the final.

Has it ever happened that someone won the final after playing a day before and not having a full day of rest vs someone who had it? This is the case for today's final.
 

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The big 4 would win slams playing 5 setters throughout the tournament. Generation useless cannot sustain it. Thiem will pathetically tire and Dull will win comfortably in 3 or 4 max.
 

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Dominic is at double massive physical disadvantage cause he not only played a 5-setter in the SF but also plays 4 consecutive days and played the day before the final.

So stop bashing him.

He was the underdog even without this handicap but now he's a huge one.
 

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Discussion Starter #6
In all those examples the winner still had a full day of rest before the final.

Has it ever happened that someone won the final after playing a day before and not having a full day of rest vs someone who had it? This is the case for today's final.
Although it doesn't fulfill the criteria I list out, a very comparable example would certainly be the windy/hurricane 2012 USO.
Murray Vs Berdych was scheduled to go first and Murray won a pretty tight contest in 4.
Then Djokovic Vs Ferrer came right after, but it was suspended for unplayable weather condition after Ferrer was up 5-2.
The next day Djokovic came out rejuvenated and beat Ferrer easily in 2-6 6-1 6-4 6-2.
With no day-off Djokovic lost to Murray in a windy 5-setter that was decided probably by a few key points in the tiebreak.
 

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Dominic is at double massive physical disadvantage cause he not only played a 5-setter in the SF but also plays 4 consecutive days and played the day before the final.

So stop bashing him.

He was the underdog even without this handicap but now he's a huge one.

No one is bashing Thiem, the guy got screwed. People actually feel for him. I would have just not turned up for the final. Nadal was always going to win anyway, but Thiem would have at least pushed him this time, maybe get a set. With the disadvantage he has now, it's all about getting as many games as possible. We might get a repeat of that 2008 final. That was torture to watch.
 

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The organizers should be ashamed of themselves always cheating for Roger. Why don’t they just open their mouths and serve as his toilet too?
 

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Why do you complain when Thiem doesn't ??

I think the only person who should have the right to raise this complain is him.

He's young and trains by lifting trees in the woods. He's strong enough to play 4 days in a row. It's not like he played for 4 hours 4 days in a row.

Nothing that different with going into the Rome final for example.
 

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Look the other way around, Dominic got a good hitting for two and a half sets, each day, on two days immediately prior to the final, from the best clay court player available, Djokovic, other than the man awaiting in the final, Rafa, who is not going to be available to Dominic for the hitting, anyway. Khachanov in the quarterfinal was an easy and quick affair.

Dominic is going into the final with perfect preparation. Weather gods and Djokovic are a blessing in disguise.
 

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Discussion Starter #11 (Edited)
Look the other way around, Dominic got a good hitting for two and a half sets, each day, on two days immediately prior to the final, from the best clay court player available, Djokovic, other than the man awaiting in the final, Rafa, who is not going to be available to Dominic for the hitting, anyway. Khachanov in the quarterfinal was an easy and quick affair.

Dominic is going into the final with perfect preparation. Weather gods and Djokovic are a blessing in disguise.
The point of this thread is to look at the statistics of win/loss percentage of coming in with massive physical disadvantage.
and it suggests it does jeopardize your chance.

If Thiem is given the chance to swap his draws and schedule for Nadal's, I'm sure he would take it without hesitation.
 

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Although it doesn't fulfill the criteria I list out, a very comparable example would certainly be the windy/hurricane 2012 USO.
Murray Vs Berdych was scheduled to go first and Murray won a pretty tight contest in 4.
Then Djokovic Vs Ferrer came right after, but it was suspended for unplayable weather condition after Ferrer was up 5-2.
The next day Djokovic came out rejuvenated and beat Ferrer easily in 2-6 6-1 6-4 6-2.
With no day-off Djokovic lost to Murray in a windy 5-setter that was decided probably by a few key points in the tiebreak.
Wimb'13 Murray-Djokovic 3:0

With two weeks between RG and Wimb.

Murray has skipped RG whereas Djokovic lost RG SF in the virtual sixth set to Nadal and had a tough 5-setter vs Delpo in Wimb SF.

Both Lendl and Becker knew very well who was going to be the winner if it went the distance.
 

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Discussion Starter #13
Wimb'13 Murray-Djokovic 3:0

With two weeks between RG and Wimb.

Murray has skipped RG whereas Djokovic lost RG SF in the virtual sixth set to Nadal and had a tough 5-setter vs Delpo in Wimb SF.
There are many similar cases, but I don't consider some of them as "massive disadvantage".
Did what happened in a tournament 3 weeks ago impact so much?
Also, Murray dropped a set in the SF and was the second of the two SF.
It didn't fulfill my criteria.
 

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The point of this thread is to look at the statistics of win/loss percentage of coming in with massive physical disadvantage.
and it suggests it does jeopardize your chance.

If Thiem is given the chance to swap his draws and schedule for Nadal's, I'm sure he would take it without hesitation.
Great point. What do you want us to do?

Do you allow us to watch the final with a peace of mind? Or do you continue to bother us with your unsolicited complaining and whining until the time of the final?

Send a message to Dominic on his Facebook or Twitter. Maybe, he was not smart enough earlier. And maybe, he will do something about it, now.
 

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Discussion Starter #15
Great point. What do you want us to do?

Do you allow us to watch the final with a peace of mind? Or do you continue to bother us with your unsolicited complaining and whining until the time of the final?

Send a message to Dominic on his Facebook or Twitter. Maybe, he was not smart enough earlier. And maybe, he will do something about it, now.
What whining? I am analyzing with past evidence.
 

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There are many similar cases, but I don't consider some of them as "massive disadvantage".
Did what happened in a tournament 3 weeks ago impact so much?
Also, Murray dropped a set in the SF and was the second of the two SF.
It didn't fulfill my criteria.
Still, it was a huge disadvantage as with Federer after his tough SF win vs Delpo at London'12 Olympics.

It was not the same Federer anymore who beat Murray in Wimb final the previous month.
 

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People need to understand there's a lot more to just the tennis. There's the warm ups, stretches, jogs, warm downs, interviews, press conferences and a ton of media commitments.

Thiem finish around 3:45pm but wouldn't have got back to his hotel till something like 6:00 at the earliest.

As a Djokovic fan I feel disgusted by his attitude the last fortnight, it's the very first time he hasn't used the scheduling bias and tough conditions to his own good. In the end I don't care if people hate him for it, but I do care about him losing.

Thiem is young and fit, he should in theory be much fitter than Nadal but Nadal is smart, he'll pull Thiem from pillar to post from the get go.
 
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