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The stark reality is this as of March 22nd, 2020:
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We are looking at a Global Mortality rate of about 4%. The Global cases and deaths are skyrocketing at an alarming rate.
Yet in China, where it all began, we have seen a leveling off:
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One might use China as a baseline. It appears that after a month or so, the rate started declining and after another month has fallen toward 0. But perhaps condtions there are different to elsewhere.
One has to be careful using China as the baseline for the virus outcome. More data points are necessary.
However, in Italy, the next region hit hard, we see something different:
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Italy is still rising after a month, and at a higher rate. Rome Masters and other tournaments in Europe cancelled.
Now, onto the UK and northern Europe for the grass season:
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The rise is more recent, and at a rather alarming steep rate.
Now onto the USA where the tour will be in July-Aug-Sept:
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Again the rise here is more recent, and at a rather alarming rate.
Conclusions: It might be a bit early to say for sure, we need some more data points in Europe when we will see some decline.
With the UK on the recent rise, it might be at least 2 months before we see a leveling off and another month before the # of new cases decline toward 0. Wimbledon could be in peril.
The North American events have the advantage of time. Again, we need another month of data to see a reliable trend.
Then it's back to Europe and East Asia for the fall events. Though East Asia might be out of the woods as far as new Coronavirus cases go, the fear and economic situation might alone prevent tournaments from being held.
I'm afraid the situation might be the same for the other earlier events in North America. The fears and economic situation might have longer lasting effects.
The good news is that the virus might play itself out globally by the end of summer or fall barring rebound effects. Unfortunately, I believe that a bulk if not all of the 2020 tennis season is in peril.
Respectfully,
masterclass
We are looking at a Global Mortality rate of about 4%. The Global cases and deaths are skyrocketing at an alarming rate.
Yet in China, where it all began, we have seen a leveling off:
One might use China as a baseline. It appears that after a month or so, the rate started declining and after another month has fallen toward 0. But perhaps condtions there are different to elsewhere.
One has to be careful using China as the baseline for the virus outcome. More data points are necessary.
However, in Italy, the next region hit hard, we see something different:
Italy is still rising after a month, and at a higher rate. Rome Masters and other tournaments in Europe cancelled.
Now, onto the UK and northern Europe for the grass season:
The rise is more recent, and at a rather alarming steep rate.
Now onto the USA where the tour will be in July-Aug-Sept:
Again the rise here is more recent, and at a rather alarming rate.
Conclusions: It might be a bit early to say for sure, we need some more data points in Europe when we will see some decline.
With the UK on the recent rise, it might be at least 2 months before we see a leveling off and another month before the # of new cases decline toward 0. Wimbledon could be in peril.
The North American events have the advantage of time. Again, we need another month of data to see a reliable trend.
Then it's back to Europe and East Asia for the fall events. Though East Asia might be out of the woods as far as new Coronavirus cases go, the fear and economic situation might alone prevent tournaments from being held.
I'm afraid the situation might be the same for the other earlier events in North America. The fears and economic situation might have longer lasting effects.
The good news is that the virus might play itself out globally by the end of summer or fall barring rebound effects. Unfortunately, I believe that a bulk if not all of the 2020 tennis season is in peril.
Respectfully,
masterclass
