We are looking at a Global Mortality rate of about 4%. The Global cases and deaths are skyrocketing at an alarming rate.
Yet in China, where it all began, we have seen a leveling off:
One might use China as a baseline. It appears that after a month or so, the rate started declining and after another month has fallen toward 0. But perhaps condtions there are different to elsewhere.
One has to be careful using China as the baseline for the virus outcome. More data points are necessary.
However, in Italy, the next region hit hard, we see something different:
Italy is still rising after a month, and at a higher rate. Rome Masters and other tournaments in Europe cancelled.
Now, onto the UK and northern Europe for the grass season:
The rise is more recent, and at a rather alarming steep rate.
Now onto the USA where the tour will be in July-Aug-Sept:
Again the rise here is more recent, and at a rather alarming rate.
Conclusions: It might be a bit early to say for sure, we need some more data points in Europe when we will see some decline.
With the UK on the recent rise, it might be at least 2 months before we see a leveling off and another month before the # of new cases decline toward 0. Wimbledon could be in peril.
The North American events have the advantage of time. Again, we need another month of data to see a reliable trend.
Then it's back to Europe and East Asia for the fall events. Though East Asia might be out of the woods as far as new Coronavirus cases go, the fear and economic situation might alone prevent tournaments from being held.
I'm afraid the situation might be the same for the other earlier events in North America. The fears and economic situation might have longer lasting effects.
The good news is that the virus might play itself out globally by the end of summer or fall barring rebound effects. Unfortunately, I believe that a bulk if not all of the 2020 tennis season is in peril.
It's very difficult to say but I think in the middle of May we will have a decline of the cases in the most of the European countries. China is a very good example and they numbers there are a very good sign.
It's possible. Not a long time ago I was hoping that there would be tennis in the summer but now it seems less likely to me. It's clear that strict measures will be applied even well after the pandemy peak and we still don't know when the peak will happen and how fast it will decline afterwards. Hopefully at least the USO and RG still have some chances.
Nobody knows but my best guess would be that the ATP organizes on big tournament for charity in November. Indoors in an area that is relatively healthy. Just to generate some goodwill ahead of 2021
^ If its okay to play tennis in November I doubt they'll waste it on a charity event, when the players are missing out on prize money all year.....I think they'll try to squeeze in a slam or 2 (and a couple of lead-up events) whenever possible.
That was back in 2017-2018 in California. I am back in Florida since Jan 2019 and work at a restaurant on the beach. We went to half capacity last week, now we are takeout only. I still have some shifts but I'm waiting with bated breath what's going on with that Congressional stimulus package
i really want to be optimistic and say we'll have tennis again this year. maybe by september we'll be in a place where it's possible. though if im being honest it just doesnt seem very likely right now . definitely not by june
keeop in mind that these guys can train and stay in shape all they want but events will need a timeline to work with to get organized, volunteers will need to be assembled. it will probably need another 3-4 weeks after it all calms down before tennis is ready to go again . its cant just pop right back up
my optimistic guess,like i said is that by late july, early august the lockdown could be lifted and then events will start getting played again by mid-late september
one thing's for sure. the asian events arent gonna happen
Im optimistic we will see some more tennis this season. The number of new cases is already droping in Italy. Things should stabilize in 2-3 months, speaking for Europe. I dont know about USA though.
i agree. september seems like the most realistic return date if tennis is to resume at all at this point. something people arnt considering either is that the olympic committee is determined to go forth this year . if they do that might also be something for players to think about. though i can imagine that even the most nationalistic of players will choose money and points of the tour over the olympics. just imagine what an olympic tennis event will look like if it happens this year.
september would give them 3 months to get tennis in..they might even creep into december a week or 2 in an effort to get events in. you know they'll try hard to get the 3 slams in but thats just not realistic i dont think. that'd be 6 weeks of time in a 8-10 week window of play.
When European countries finally get cases down close to zero, following thousands upon thousands of deaths, and with huge personal sacrifice from the whole population, the last thing the government is going to allow is an international event of any kind. All it takes is one or two fresh cases and the whole thing will start again, although perhaps with a slower spread if there is a measure of immunity.
International support will resume once there's a reliable vaccine, not before.
Mark my words!
Given that MTF is all about outrageous predictions (that either do or do not come true), this is mine.
Reasoning, this is how the curve has gone for South Korea and for China. Why would Italy, and the rest of the world be different. We are discovering new methods for treating...
Wilander in French L'Équipe :
The Serb hadn't lost a single game this season, and only the corona virus was able to slow his momentum down.
In addition to Djokovic, the young players in particular would have a major disadvantage due to the interruption: "They faced the great chance of...
Hello,
The question is simple: Who do you think will come back stronger after this stop in the competition?
We can target several players: Federer, Nadal, Djokovic, Thiem and the NextGeneration.
I can take the problem in all directions, but I can't see who will benefit from it IF the...
I thought it would be a cool idea for MTF to simulate many of the tournaments that are cancelled due to the Coronavirus outbreak. We will start with Miami to see how this goes. The draw is completely randomized for each event.
How to Play:
As in past MTF draw games, each vote will cast as...
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