Will Wawrinka crack top 3 before Roland Garros?
So,answering the question, I can't see it coming. Federer won't have many points to defend, I think he will finish 2012 in top 4 considering the clown field.
Federer is way better than those two to get his ranking snatched by them. Ferrer is a clay courter and average on hard courts, while Tsonga is very inconsistent and still clowning around. For one, Federer doesn't lose to mugs like Nieminen, Bogomolov or Nishikori. This already shows why he is above them in the rankings and it will stay that way.
I'd like to point out that if Ferrer actually wins Shanghai, he'd be 485 points behind Roger in the YTD rankings. He's not as far away from Federer as you'd think from the gap in the 12-month version. Ferrer did little at the end of last year but racked up the points from Jan-March. It wouldn't be a long stay at #4 but the potential for that seeding at the Australian Open is there (recall that del Potro and Soderling pulled it off at that exact point in the year).
That said, Ferrer will be turning 30 next year and he's had a very fortunate draw at some hard court events. While it's possible to maybe snatch #4 for a week or so, I don't see that lasting.
Tsonga has a shot. He's got no points to defend in Paris, could win a match or two at WTF, did poorly at AO last year where he's had runs in the past. More likely del Potro can make a lasting run. He has nothing to defend until February - and they're 250s - so good Paris and AO runs could cause serious problems.
Hopefully it happens. Big difference between being #5 vs 4 in the draws. Regardless of seeding though the "doha champ" is not winning anything that actually matters, master series/slams unless the top 3 are not playing or injured.
Don't really see it coming tbh. Could be #4 for a long time, but if Murray/Nadal/Djokovic have a bad start next year and Roger plays very well he can get back to #3. We'll see. Would be disheartening to see Roger to 5 though :sad: