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Daniil's points in the end of the year are almost at max (Washington F (300), Canada F (600), Cincinnati W (1000), USO F (1200), St.Petersburg W (250), Shanghai W (1000), Paris W (1000), Finals W (1500).

He is not far from Thiem and Nadal, 3500 points to Djokovic.
He has only 280 points from 3 slams: AO+RG+WIM.
He has only 110 points from 3 Masters: Miami+Madrid+Rome.
His countable ATP250\500 points can become better too.

So at the week before Washington he can be at his peak in points.

Meanwhile Djokovic has to defend: RG F + WIM W (3200 points), Madrid W + Rome W (2000).

If quarantine situation is ok and we don't freeze the rankings since March, what do you think about Medvedev's chances to add points and become the world №1 in July?
 

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Well he definitely has a chance

Defends only 435 from ATP Cup and AO total. Needs to have a strong result, like SF or F in AO to really be talking about it, otherwise he has to improve his abilities on clay and grass because he scored only 100 points in RG and Wimbledon combined
 

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It’s not impossible. But he’d need not only a very good result at AO but also much better results on clay (we all know his dire RG record) and a good/ very good showing at WM (where he never went past R3).
 

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It's not beyond the realm of possibility, but he either has to blow everyone away on hard or learn to play on clay.
 

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I doubt it considering how useless Medvedev is on clay. I'd give it a 1% chance of happening with him requiring a lot of luck with draws and other top players getting upset in tournaments they are favoured in.
 

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Season is likely to be very disrupted between now and July with potential for tournaments to be delayed so things have a chance to improve
 

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Great chance if he just wins the Aussie to be honest. And before July too. Big, big, if of course, but the numbers are there even with a modest improvement elsewhere.
 

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Needs to improve massively on clay, both at the clay Masters (at least MC + Rome, Madrid may be an exception) and most importantly at RG.
Another R1 exit won't put his chances for getting #1 in the best position...
 

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More likely Thiem becomes the next new #1 before Medvedev??
Thiem is done. He wont do anything this year if the schedule is back to normal.

Its will be Djokovic AO/WIM

Nadal FO

MED USO

No you guys cant see it yet. But Thiem is ALREADY in decline.
 

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He has the game and he is able to go far on all surfaces (except maybe grass)....

Problem for him is mental consistency.... even if being fit and having all skills he can have a focuse lapse as we can have seen from USO 2020 to Paris 2020.
Not talking about when he is not playing at the top of his level as we could see in Early 2020. He has not that ability to win ugly which means winning when not playing well as Federer Nadal Murray or Djokovic could.
Cervara made an excellent work in buiding his confidence back but so far Daniil is not able to build it by himself which is a big problem.
 

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More likely Thiem becomes the next new #1 before Medvedev??
Well problem for Thiem is consistency.

OK Medvedev can have lapses and long periods of doubts....

But Thiem made a 2020 with some awfull repetitive results : ATP Cup, Western and Southern, Roma, FO, Vienna...

Of course some of those defeats in Pre Event kept him fresh for bigger Events like AO USO and WTF but :
1) He went deep in those 3 but not big enough to make the difference.
2) Points lost in Pre Events are not a big deal for his legacy but would kill a run to #1 in a normal year with no ranking frozen (and no Nole and Rafa around).
 

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Thiem is done. He wont do anything this year if the schedule is back to normal.

No you guys cant see it yet. But Thiem is ALREADY in decline.
I do not properly agree with you even if I do not have very different conclusions.


Thiem is not on the decline IMO, he was a good athletic clay player who managed to improve his game to medium slow high bounce HC and lately to medium fast high bounce HC and Indoor low bounce HC...

Of course his 2020 lacked of consistency with some embarrassing results like I said in previous post but other players did not do better...

Then he is 27+ and we can expect his younger opponents Medvedev Zverev Tsitsipas Rublev Sinner can improve more than him.

This is not written in stone as we have seen in the past promising players suddenly disappearing, and later birds like Wawrinka suddenly improving in their primes BUT normally younger players are improving and recovering faster.
 

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I don't like the idea of a number 1 who is very bad on two historic surfaces, grass and clay, and doesn't show great motivation to improve on them, as yet at any rate.
 

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It depends on how long ATP decides to keep protecting events (taking best result of past x years), and not dropping anything.
He has a bigger chance if Clay events are cancelled in Europe due to corona virus, and then it could be said that Medvedev will be #1 sometime after the US Open if he can win it.

So I don't think by July, but by September, yes.

Respectfully,
masterclass
 

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I don't like the idea of a number 1 who is very bad on two historic surfaces, grass and clay, and doesn't show great motivation to improve on them, as yet at any rate.
He is not "very bad" on grass, people like you are overreacting about his grass level when the sample size is very small, and we know Medvedev peaked from 2019, was robbed by the umpire otherwise would have beaten Goffin
 
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