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Will humans walk on Mars before the end of the next decade?

  • Yes

    Votes: 1 12.5%
  • No, but will happen before the end of this century

    Votes: 5 62.5%
  • No, and it will never happen

    Votes: 2 25.0%
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Discussion Starter #1
Do you think will we ever travel there? Optimistically, I can see SpaceX pulling it off before the end of next decade. If that happens then that opens a lot of possibilities. A Mars settlement within our lifetimes? The first Martian (baby born in Mars)?

I guess a lot of people wouldn't care about this (waste of tax dollars and what not) but it is always good to aim high (and the rewards will likely outweigh how cost many times over). What says you?

 

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I'm sure some billionaires like Musk or Bezos will pull this off (sending someone to Mars), just because they can afford it and they want to enter history.

But I don't see any real benefit for humanity.

We already know that there is not much to find on Mars. A human settlement on Mars will be small (a bunch of scientists). Living on Mars is like living in the Sahara with Siberian temperatures, minus oxygen, plus deadly storms.

Robots will be much more useful on Mars than humans.
 

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Have Musk and Bezos travelled around and seen every beautiful place on Earth?

If it is not to show power, what else it is for? Their women can't bear these two divorcee idiots and left them. There are people on Earth who are dying due to lack of food, shelter, and basic necessities of life. Forget all of that and prioritize launching expensive rockets into Mars.
 

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I think it will happen next decade.
Realistically, permanent, Antarctica-style Moon base should be this decade's target.

I believe we will have the delivery system working for Mars by mid-decade, but that's not enough.
Need:
- to make delivery system comfortable, preferably with elements of artificial gravity
- deploy a constellation of Mars satellites for communication, weather, observation
- build a full cycle of infrastructure short of production of food. Fuel production, water mining, construction.
That all needs to happen before first humans arrive.
A lot of things that are needed to make it real first step, not a one off, like Apollo

We are making progress, but I don't think all of the above to happen before end of winter 2029 window, it's a longshot.
Elon though gives very high odds even for fall 2026 window.
I am rooting for that to happen.
 

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But I don't see any real benefit for humanity.

We already know that there is not much to find on Mars. A human settlement on Mars will be small (a bunch of scientists). Living on Mars is like living in the Sahara with Siberian temperatures, minus oxygen, plus deadly storms.

Robots will be much more useful on Mars than humans.
There is one very clear benefit. Many scientific fields, such as fundamental physics, physics of particles, nuclear physics, engineering of things based on those technologies.
We are pretty much at dead end with that on Earth. Would anyone allow build and test nuclear-based engines, some sophisticated energy technology here on Earth? With our population density and brittle ecology, it's out of question, we are tied, stuck.
Even Moon is too close to home and too small for that. Mars is perfect. The only livable place in Solar system where risks of many crucial scientific researches would be acceptable.
 

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too soon i think, getting back to the moon should be the priority and establishing a base, which I believe is in the planning stage.
 

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The fact we haven't built a base on the moon already is shocking based on how much progress was made during the cold war.

Basically it all went south when snowflakes started to get a say in matters and they were too busy wanting to frolic in the flower fields instead of blazing into space.

Trump establishing the USSF (Space Force) last year as an independent branch will go down as one of the best things in history.

Meanwhile, weirdo hippies will continue to ride their bikes to go sniff the asses of cows.
 

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Great question.
To be quite frank I really doubt we humans mange to do it until Dec 31st 2030.
The thing is this date has already been postponed a few times and will probably be pushed again.
I read a great article (can't find the link now) about this subject where they listed the main obstacles to overcome before such trip is not a suicide mission and has a relatively high chance for success. IIRC the two main issues were:
  • how to get rid of the wastage when on board the spaceship
  • how to avoid the deadly influence of cosmic radiation on human body
 

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Do we want to?
 

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Discussion Starter #12
But I don't see any real benefit for humanity.
What about all the technology that will need to be invented or improved to get us there? That kind of technology eventually trickle down to things we normal people use. What about the inspiration to a new generation of kids to become a scientist and push the boundaries of humankind knowledge. What about the answer to the fundamental question of how rare is life? I mean this would be the real thing.

We already know that there is not much to find on Mars.
I mean, we barely know Mars. There is the possibility that there is life still there close to geothermally heated water sources. That by itself is a huge deal.

A human settlement on Mars will be small (a bunch of scientists). Living on Mars is like living in the Sahara with Siberian temperatures, minus oxygen, plus deadly storms.
I don't get the thing about storms. That is what occurs in "The Martian" but it is not how it operates in reality. There is comparatively very little atmosphere there, so even 200km/h winds won't do much.
 

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What about all the technology that will need to be invented or improved to get us there? That kind of technology eventually trickle down to things we normal people use. What about the inspiration to a new generation of kids to become a scientist and push the boundaries of humankind knowledge. What about the answer to the fundamental question of how rare is life? I mean this would be the real thing.

I mean, we barely know Mars. There is the possibility that there is life still there close to geothermally heated water sources. That by itself is a huge deal.
Mars should definitely continue to be explored. Many missions were sent there already.

I don't see the benefit in sending humans, because the trip is so long (for a human) and the human body is so badly adapted to life away from Earth.


The same reason why nobody bothered to send a human on the moon for the past 48 years
 

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We are pretty much at dead end with that on Earth. Would anyone allow build and test nuclear-based engines, some sophisticated energy technology here on Earth? With our population density and brittle ecology, it's out of question, we are tied, stuck.
Even Moon is too close to home and too small for that. Mars is perfect. The only livable place in Solar system where risks of many crucial scientific researches would be acceptable.
But Earth, even in the worst scenario concerning climate change, pollution, overpopulation, etc, is still 1000 times better suited for human life than Mars.


Apart from the exploration aspect, who would want to live on Mars?
 

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We should definitely colonize Mars. Let's send the climate cult first, to solve the 96% CO2 atmosphere situation.

In other news, World Economic Forum discovers life on Venus:
 

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Humans are too weak and frail and most who go will get cancer very shortly. The radiation levels in space are beyond the repair mechanisms of the human body and cause permanent dna changes and cancers. We are too frail. It will be robots that will explore space for us.
 

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What's the problem with Earth, the way it is, and the way we are living on Earth? Why do we need Mars and Moon, now?

Too much pollution on Earth? Too much population? Too many problems? Is it impossible to regulate and control pollution increase, population increase, or to reduce problems, to make Earth a better place?

Or is it relatively cheaper to live or do we live longer on Mars and Moon?

There is one very clear benefit. Many scientific fields, such as fundamental physics, physics of particles, nuclear physics, engineering of things based on those technologies.
We are pretty much at dead end with that on Earth. Would anyone allow build and test nuclear-based engines, some sophisticated energy technology here on Earth? With our population density and brittle ecology, it's out of question, we are tied, stuck.
Even Moon is too close to home and too small for that. Mars is perfect. The only livable place in Solar system where risks of many crucial scientific researches would be acceptable.
Dead end? Really, Professor?
 

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What's the problem with Earth, the way it is, and the way we are living on Earth? Why do we need Mars and Moon, now?

Too much pollution on Earth? Too much population? Too many problems? Is it impossible to regulate and control pollution increase, population increase, or to reduce problems, to make Earth a better place?
The problem is that as the way things are right now, the Earth is under great stress due to the pressures placed on it from humans that include overpopulation, overharvesting of natural habitats and resources, environmental degradation including from climate change, and pollution that is bioaccumulating in the food supply, all of which is a great threat to the world's biodiversity, and with the Earth's biodiversity threatened, food webs could destabilize or unravel, which will increase the cost of many different types of food that are commonly eaten in the world today. That would be a very undesirable result as a world with reduced access to food security and not as much habitable land (due to climate change) could be a very unstable and more violent environment to live in even assuming that the world population stays the same as it is now or even decreases slightly, but current estimates suggest the world population will continue to grow for decades to come, so this will continue to be a serious issue. That is why popular figures such as Elon Musk are trying to get humans off the Earth because they expect that the Earth will be ruined in due time because of the incompetence and/or greed of humans.
 

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Discussion Starter #20
Have Musk and Bezos travelled around and seen every beautiful place on Earth?
There is an argument for that, the Earth oceans are barely explored. However, you can chew gum and walk at the same time. I see both Earth exploration and Mars exploration as investments (as science and technology tend to have good returns historically), so there is no reason to not do both.

If it is not to show power, what else it is for?
Exploration, science, pushing the boundaries of humankind, answer fundamental questions about what is life

There are people on Earth who are dying due to lack of food, shelter, and basic necessities of life. Forget all of that and prioritize launching expensive rockets into Mars.
I don't know about Bezos, I don't think he's doing anything Mars related. But Elon Musk is a private citizen, he can do with his money as he pleases.
 
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