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I was just checking historical betting odds for a bunch of slams... anyway for 2011 US Open nadal was pretty much a 2-1 dog for the semi-final against Murray (2.94 odds Nadal, 1.47 odds Murray). The odds for the later final were similar: 3.00 for Nadal and 1.43 for Djokovic. Did the public seriously think that Murray was as good as Djokovic in 2011??? I for the life of my can't understand why Murray was such a big favorite, since Nadal already beat him at French and Wimbledon that year. Nadal lost to Dodig and Fish earlier that year in warm-ups, but surely that doesn't explain everything. Even Federer was less of an underdog (2.76-1.52) against Djokovic in the SF than Nadal was against Murray. Did the public just super overrate Murray, maybe from their 2008 SF?

I would have expected Nadal to be the slight favorite or at least pretty much a toss-up, not a 2-1 dog.
 

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Yup, strange one. Murray had won their 2 previous HC slam meetings but had gone into that one playing pretty average stuff and had capitulated in the Wimbledon SF. This was arguably his most disappointing performance of his Nadal slam losses though, this one he absolutely ought to have done better.
 
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