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Who would have the better chance vs Nadal?

  • Zverev

    Votes: 22 27.2%
  • Tsitsipas

    Votes: 59 72.8%
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Zverev has the backhand and serve edge. But not sure he has it mentally.

Tsitsipas seems less likely to go missing mentally, but the backhand is going to be a problem. I do think that he has a good chance of making it a long physical match, which may be the best way of beating Nadal. Sinner and Norrie had patches where they played well, but not when it really mattered. If Stef can nick one of the first two sets and not get overrun in the other - Nadal is looking at going long at a high intensity - not sure he can do that any longer.
 

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I wouldn't be that concerned about Tsitsi if I were you.

Judging by the overwhelming historical evidence, Rafa always handles his opponents from the lead up clay tournaments significantly better at RG. And as good as Stefs current form is, there is one thing that bothers me about him. He seems to carry this extremely high level of tension inside of him, which is naturally not a bad thing per se, but in big matches/tounaments it can be dangerously close to the breaking point. You could totally sense it last night against Med. And if there is one guy who can take him over the edge it's Rafa.
To close to the verge of implosion/collapse for my taste he is....

Zverev otoh, is a completely different animal. Apart from certain match-up advantages he might hold over Tsits vs. Nadal, I trust he would enter a potenital final as something of a carefree fool, which could lead to him playing surprisingly well at least for stretches of the match. Of couse if he actually miraculously manages to play up a lead vs. Rafa he will most probably then collaps back again into Mugrev like he did against Thiem at USO.

So if the question is who will make it more exciting/competitive, my gut says Zverev. But when it comes to winning, I don't think the NextGen can come through. Only scenario is if something dramatic and insanely exhausting happens in the Djokodal SF and the victor of this match comes into the final physically/emotionally compromised.
LOL thanks for the re-assurance, maybe you notice I am one of the least jittery of the Rafa fans, so many nervous about Diego.
After watching tsitsi's 1rst set lastnight, I got concerned. But Rafa is such a diff opponent than Med of course.

Yes AZ should implode if close to a win. That USO final was a disgrace at the end.
The thought of an exhausting Djokal is disturbing! Thanks to med's stupid ranking for that as semi.

As for the more exciting final, no, I have to differ. I find AZ a bore, and tsitsi very interesting, so much more variety.
Also consider this: took Rafa 3 sets and a close final set in Barc to beat Tsitsi, only two straightforward sets against Zverev in Rome.
 

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It's a 2 pronged attack which would likely b needed for either to defeat Claydal in final. First, he would need to b taken to 5 sets in SF which i'm not sure ever done to him at RG & Novak would b the likely opponent for this to occur. The next prerequisite would b for either Tsitsi (hopefully) or Bratrev to take care of their business in SF of no more than 4 short to medium length sets.
 

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It's a 2 pronged attack which would likely b needed for either to defeat Claydal in final. First, he would need to b taken to 5 sets in SF which i'm not sure ever done to him at RG & Novak would b the likely opponent for this to occur. The next prerequisite would b for either Tsitsi (hopefully) or Bratrev to take care of their business in no more than 4 short to medium length sets.
What a shame being a Nole fan 😀
 

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Also consider this: took Rafa 3 sets and a close final set in Barc to beat Tsitsi, only two straightforward sets against Zverev in Rome.
That's a way to put it, but Zverev beat Rafa straightforwardly in Madrid and even if you say Madrid is different clay, Zverev was tired from the previous week and the Nishikori match the last day in Rome, and Zverev still wasted a lot of BP chances and took the match to about 2 hours at Rome while Rafa wasted MP to potentially beat Tsitsipas in straights...So it's still arguable who did better against Rafa this clay season. I'd also add that IMO Rafa played at a higher level in the Rome QF than Barcelona F.
 

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Zverev recovers more easily after a bad serve game. Tsit is too slow and his backhand isn’t that great when he is tested.
 

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That's a way to put it, but Zverev beat Rafa straightforwardly in Madrid and even if you say Madrid is different clay, Zverev was tired from the previous week and the Nishikori match the last day in Rome, and Zverev still wasted a lot of BP chances and took the match to about 2 hours at Rome while Rafa wasted MP to potentially beat Tsitsipas in straights...So it's still arguable who did better against Rafa this clay season. I'd also add that IMO Rafa played at a higher level in the Rome QF than Barcelona F.
Madrid is so different it doesn't pertain here.
But yes, Rafa was better in Rome than Barca I would say that.

In truth all these factors will be irrelevant.
Every day each player is a somewhat different player, different conditions, BO5 etc.

Rafa's record in BO5 clay finals. Has he lost even one? Of course there is always a first.
 

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What a shame being a Nole fan 😀
Why? Novak’s not the one who quit after uncharacteristically losing 2 TB’s to go down by 2 sets in 4th R vs Musetti or forfeit from FO after getting enough ‘practice’ time on courts to prepare for a Grass major that suits him better. He’s right where he should b & no shame at all about it.
 

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Why? Novak’s not the one who quit after uncharacteristically losing 2 TB’s in 4th R to win next 3 sets or forfeit from FO after getting enough ‘practice’ time on courts to prepare for a Grass major that suits him better. He’s right where he should b & no shame at all about it.
😂I think the post was referring to the 2013 SF where Nole took Rafa to 5.
 

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Why? Novak’s not the one who quit after uncharacteristically losing 2 TB’s in 4th R to win next 3 sets or forfeit from FO after getting enough ‘practice’ time on courts to prepare for a Grass major that suits him better. He’s right where he should b & no shame at all about it.
I was not able all referring to that. You are discrediting Novak for something that he already did. See the bolded part in my previous reply.
 

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Ok, i obviously haven’t followed past Clay seasons as closely. Tbh, in recent times, it has been Tsitsi who has piqued my interest on the surface & kind of reminds me of a young Borg the most.
 

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Discussion Starter · #52 ·
but tsitsi's H2hH with Zverev tells you nothing about how either them stack up against Nadal.
I meant the H2H vs Nadal, from 2019. This is recent (since end of 2019). See below. If you go one match further back, Rafa won in 3 sets on clay in spring 2018 (and from memory that involved a rain break after which Nadal turned it round). Even a very young Zverev was not a straightforward opponent for Nadal.

2021ATP Masters 1000 Rome
Italy
Outdoor ClayQFRafael Nadal63 64
2021ATP Masters 1000 Madrid
Spain
Outdoor ClayQFAlexander Zverev64 64
2020ATP Masters 1000 Paris
France
Indoor HardSFAlexander Zverev64 75
2019Nitto ATP Finals
Great Britain
Indoor HardRRAlexander Zverev62 64
2018ATP Masters 1000 Rome
Italy
Outdoor ClayFRafael Nadal61 16 63
 

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If Djokovic were in the final, Tsitsipas has a MUCH higher chance of beating him.

If it's Nadal, the odds are virtually equal for different reasons. Zverev does have the tools to trouble Nadal more over a long match, but as most have pointed out, he's a headcase in big slam matches(will probably be the reason he won't even make it). Tsitsipas will struggle in the BH battles, but his FH has been impressive this tournament....he should be able to go toe to toe FH to FH. His return is weak though. The biggest thing though is Stef has beaten Nadal in big slam matches so mentally he's much more likely to score the big win.

I still expect Tsitsipas to win on Friday anyways. I always said if he maintains the level he's been playing this clay season, he will make his first slam final.
 

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I fear Zverev more than I do Tsitsipas but I'm confident in Nadal.
 

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I think Tsitsipas is the better player than Zverev on clay at the moment, but it seems that Zverev is more tricky for Nadal.
 
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