Djokovic >>(>>>>>?) Nadal >> Nishikori/Federer/Murray/Wawrinka/Berdych/Monfils
Nadal is difficult to judge, if he plays like last months place him with the rest of 3rd tier.
3rd tier is pretty broad, don't think any of them have a legit shot but if anyone is gonna make an upset I think it'll be one of these (they can also burn out in the first rounds though).
I don't agree. Fanboys are gonna be fanboys no matter what. Like this, some people might at least go with somebody they wouldn't go in a public poll, due to some MTF trolls blaming them for their choice.
85% Djokovic - could lose only due to outside factors, like sickness or another Pascal Maria's robbery, ...
5% Federer - Remote chance really, but if Novak is stopped by non tennis factors, he has as good chance as anyone else
5% Clayray - hope this will not happen. The hype would be unbelievable.
5% the rest of the field (excluding Nadal)
Very easy to judge, because if Nadal plays Roland Garros the same way he played Monte Carlo then he'll win Roland Garros.
In Monte Carlo, the key game in the 1st set was at 3-3, it took Djokovic more than 10 minutes to hold serve.
In the 2nd set at 3-3 Nadal was up 40-0 and got broken.
If both those crucial games were played at Roland Garros, Nadal wins them both (because of the extra bounce and also the bigger court).
So Nadal doesn't have to improve at all.