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Mercedes Cup. Stuttgart Germany
International Series Gold Outdoor
Clay $757,000 :D Sgl 32 Dbl 16


Mercedez-Benz Cup, Los Angeles
International Series Outdoor
Hard $525,000 Sgl 32 Dbl 16


Dutch Open, Amersfoort
International Series Outdoor
Clay $416,000 Sgl 32 Dbl 16


 

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ATP Mercedes Stuttgart
1st round

Jiri Vanek vs Navarro Pastor


Pick: Vanek 1,62 @ Betfair

Stake: 5/10


Vanek seems to be back on track after a back injury later in 2006. His record since April 2007 is 19-11 and 15-7 since his Prague Ch final later in May. He made some good clay wins, against Starace, Roger Vasselin and Serra. He's confident and motivated by the possibility of re-enter in the Top-100 if he reaches 2nd round. He cruised through the Qualies, winning in the final round at the young gun Fognini in straight sets.
Navarro Pastor is having some troubles in finding his way. It's true that he made a 1/2 final @ ATP Valencia, but seriously, that draw was't that strong. After that he made a couple of good results in challengers and make it through the 2nd round in RG, loosing to Nalbas.
I'm backing Vanek's confidence and motivation against a an opponent that can make it to a 3rd set ;)
Vanek is 2-0 on h2h, both of them in clay.


ATP Amersfoot
1st round

Dominic Hrbaty vs Evgueny Korolev


Pick: Korolev 1.57 @ Betfair

Stake: 5/10

Hrbaty is no longer The Dominator. He's having a terrible season with 9-19. In the last 10 he only achieve one win against Jan Mertl :eek: :eek: Not even on the challengers series he's capable of winning.
The young Korolev made an impressive start of season, reaching 1/4 in Sydney and 1/2 in Las Vegas. In the claycourt season reached the 1/4 finals in Valencia before quiting in Estoril due to injury. Fail the main clay season, returning only in Queens where he won to Wawrinka, loosing in the 2nd to Blake. Lost in the 1st round of Bastad to Massu, but made it difficult: 4-6 6-3 6-4



ATP Amersfoot
1st round

Gilles Simon vs Ramirez Hidalgo


Pick: Simon 1.60 @ Betfair

Stake: 5/10

The talented young frenchman made a good run in Gstaad loosing only to tournament champion Ferrer. He moved well, he was reaching early to the balls and his forehand made some damage on Monaco and Troicki. He will bring that momentum to this match against Ramirez Hidalgo, who keeps dealing with some problems when playing on ATP. He grabbed a 1/2 final in Casablanca ATP, loosing to Montanes, but that was a oasis in the middle of the desert.
They already meet this year in Casablanca and Ramirez Hidalho won 6-4 6-4. Simon has improved his game since than and Hidalgo is playing a lot worst.
 

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ATP Mercedes Stuttgart
1st round


Gael Monfils vs Tommy Robredo

Pick: Monfils 2.60 @ Betfair

Stake: 3/10


Robredo lost to Horna in Bastad and played really bad!! He lost a lot of points in the back court an serve look like crappy. He's confidence must have dropped a lot, since Bastad ih his favourite tournament and loosing in the 1st round like that must be really disapointed. I expect Monfils to hold his serve and to attack some weak 2nd serves from Robredo.
In h2h Robredo leads 2-0, in games played in 2005.

Fernando Verdasco vs Florian Mayer

Pick: Mayer 2.20 @ Betfair


Stake: 3/10

Mayer deserves a shot in here. He had some trouble in the claycourt Spring season loosing in 1st round in 3 straight tournaments. He played 2 challengers in between and reached final in both. Reached 1/4 finals in Queens and lost in 2nd round of Wimbledon in a thrilling 5 sets game against Nieminen.
Verdasco isn't that bad in clay. He made a good run in Roland Garros, reaching 4th round, but he's having problems in taking back-to-back victories. Only won 2 games in Queens, Las vegas and Roland Garros.
Besides h2h is 3-0 por Mayer (7-0 in sets) and Mayer have home support.
 

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Record This Week: 0-0 (+$0.00)



ATP Amersfoot - 1st Round


Dominik Hrbaty 2.81 over Evgeny Korolev ($200 to win $362)

Call me the Texas fuckin crazy horse for making this wager but before you go chomping at my nuts, please hear me out. Fading the Dominator has become one of the most popular trends over the last few weeks and well throughout the clay court season leading up to Roland Garros but this trend is also one of the most dangerous trends for oddsmakers because Hrbaty is not going to lose forever. This is a classic case of a guy like Korolove who is getting ridiculous odds against a player who is still very much capable of winning matches at this level and competing regardless of what many of you think. You absolutely cannot forget that Korolev is only 19 years old and his biggest win over the last 12 months on clay courts was against Tobias Clemens last September in a Dusseldorf Challenger event. Yeah that's right...his biggest win ever on this surface was against a guy ranked #295 in the world at the time (#210 now) and that doesn't explain to me why he is getting such odds on this kind of surface. The Dominator is 0-5 in his last five ATP level clay court matches which has most definitely inflated the odds even more and given us a better price to play this at. Those five losses were against Juan Carlos Ferrero (18-10 on clay the last 12 months), Juan Monaco (29-13 on clay the last 12 months), Vincent Spadea (7-7 on clay the last 12 months), Bohdan Ulirach (26-13 on clay the last 12 months) and Albert Montanes (29-21 on clay the last 12 months). As you can see, most of these guys are proven and good clay courters while Korolev is not proven on clay and has played only 12 matches on this surface over the last 12 months. These odds are crazy. Neither one of these two players has much of a first serve return which is why I think Hrbaty is going to have some kind of edge of his first and second serves in this match. He has been better than Korolev on clay when it comes to grabbing points on his second serve and I think he'll have some kind of motivation to get things going before heading over to North America for some hardcourt action. Ideally the indoor hard and carpet season would be right now for Dominator and he could show what he is all about but for now he has to settle for these tournaments and hope the best comes out of them. I have to admit that Korolev has quite the upside potential and he will one day be beating some very good players but the spot is not right in my opinion and like I was talking about before, Korolev's shape on clay courts has not been good enough, his second serve has been deceiving and he has at times had problems with his return game. As much as Dominator has struggled with his first serve in recent clay court events, I don't think the first serve is going to be all that important in this match and I have a lot of confidence that Hrbaty is going to bounce back from some weird challenger event appearances that he did not need to make. Also keep in mind guys that Korolev has somewhat been overvalued by the linesmakers here because of his 15-5 challenger tour record this year. Well he is 15-15 in ATP events this season and if he comes out a little bit sluggish (off the big loss against Massu last week), I think Hrbaty is going to utilize his weakness to defend the first serve and to grab some point soff that second serve...something he has been doing quite well in his five losses. I know it sucks to lose and as I mentioned when I kicked things off a bit earlier, Dominator can't continue to lose the way he has been losing. He is a guy that no matter how poorly he is currently playing, is very dangerous to regain his touch at any given time and there is no reason for linesmakers to make such a big deal out of this and put out the odds they did. Korolev in no way shape or form deserves this kind of respect and I think Hrbaty is a very good candidate to take him to shool and teach this young kid a few lessons here and there. Not much else can be said about this match other than the underdog is barking very loud and I think its time to make some fuckin money!




:eek:
 

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Vanek x Cilic
Both qualificants have little advantage and playing rivals they can beat . But nothing sure so no big stake . Only to begin this week ;)
 

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and his biggest win over the last 12 months on clay courts was against Tobias Clemens last September in a Dusseldorf Challenger event.
Actually he beated:

Tomas Behrend - number 158 of the world - ch Dusseldorf - 6:3 6:4
Albert Portas - number 131 of the world - ch Dusseldorf - 6:3 7:5
Andreas Vinciguerra - number 155 of the world - ch Dusseldorf - 7:6 6:3

Guillermo Garcia-Lopez - number 64 of the world - ATP Valencia - 6:3 1:6 6:3
Sergio Roitman - number 78 of the world - ATP Valencia - 1:6 7:5 6:0
 

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Vliegen tb Zabaleta @1.60

I can't help thinking these odds must be based on Zabaleta's name rather than any recent achievements because there are none. Zabaleta's April form is gone, he hasn't won a match since Roland Garros, even in a challenger. Not trying to talk Vliegen into a champion here, but anything above 1.50 for him has value imo.
 

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Robredo to beat Monfils @ 1.6

If Monfils stands 10 feet behind the baseline like he has for most of his career, then Robredo will simply grind him into the ground.
Robredo hasn't been on the best of form recently and lost in the first round last week, so will be looking to get back on form. H2H is 2-0 in favour of Robredo and just reckon he is the more reliable and better clay court player. Monfils will have his moments but just backing the consistency of Boredo over 3 sets.

Pashanski to beat Garica Lopez @ 2.76

Garcia Lopez is very capable on clay but I reckon he is more suited to hard courts. Apart from his win against Berdych at Roland Garos, his clay court season has been a bit of a dissapointment. Pashanski, despite dominating the challenger scene, has never really made an impact on the main tour. However, he is coming off a final appearance in the Turin challenger which featured some pretty good players and comfortably qualified here. He won 2 rounds in Barcelona earlier in the year so he is not totally incapable of winning on the main tour level.

Mantilla to beat Haase @ 1.48

Mantilla has made a solid comeback after suffering skin cancer. He won a round in Barcelona and gave Moya a tough match in one of his first tournaments after comeback and he recently got to the final of a clay challenger event in Italy before losing a very close final. He qualified very impressively here, winning his final round 6-0 6-0 so he will be confident. Haase is a hot young talent but at this stage of his career, he is probably better on the faster surfaces. Think Mantilla will have too much clay court nous for the youngster.

Cilic to beat Becker @ 1.5

Not the biggest fan of Cilic but he is a much better clay courter than Becker who stinks on this surface and I'm really suprised he is playing here instead of on the hardcourts in America.
Cilic is an all surface player but his best results have come on clay which includes 2 challenger wins and a atp semi final win on this surface.
Becker on the otherhand is a poor claycourter. His only wins on the clay have come against fellow clay court clowns - Johansson, Kunitsyn and Zimonjic.
 

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Hrbaty to defeat Korolev
Simply because he is seeded and if he plays near his best he will defeat Korolev in 2 sets. Worth a shot here.
 

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Hrbaty to defeat Korolev
Simply because he is seeded and if he plays near his best he will defeat Korolev in 2 sets. Worth a shot here.
Are you backing someone because he is seeded?

And Hrbaty doesn't play near his best since Paris last year. The guy lost last week against Raemon Sluiter on clay in straight sets. Ouch.
 

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Hrbaty to defeat Korolev
Simply because he is seeded and if he plays near his best he will defeat Korolev in 2 sets. Worth a shot here.
Mate, you made this mistake with Gicquel last week. Just because a player is seeded doesn't mean that they are better than the other one...how do you think upsets happen and underdogs win?

You seem to be new to betting (and tennis, even) - remember that the match-up is what counts more than anything (about 80% important).
 

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Robredo to beat Monfils @ 1.6

If Monfils stands 10 feet behind the baseline like he has for most of his career, then Robredo will simply grind him into the ground.
Robredo hasn't been on the best of form recently and lost in the first round last week, so will be looking to get back on form. H2H is 2-0 in favour of Robredo and just reckon he is the more reliable and better clay court player. Monfils will have his moments but just backing the consistency of Boredo over 3 sets.

Pashanski to beat Garica Lopez @ 2.76

Garcia Lopez is very capable on clay but I reckon he is more suited to hard courts. Apart from his win against Berdych at Roland Garos, his clay court season has been a bit of a dissapointment. Pashanski, despite dominating the challenger scene, has never really made an impact on the main tour. However, he is coming off a final appearance in the Turin challenger which featured some pretty good players and comfortably qualified here. He won 2 rounds in Barcelona earlier in the year so he is not totally incapable of winning on the main tour level.

Mantilla to beat Haase @ 1.7

Mantilla has made a solid comeback after suffering skin cancer. He won a round in Barcelona and gave Moya a tough match in one of his first tournaments after comeback and he recently got to the final of a clay challenger event in Italy before losing a very close final. He qualified very impressively here, winning his final round 6-0 6-0 so he will be confident. Haase is a hot young talent but at this stage of his career, he is probably better on the faster surfaces. Think Mantilla will have too much clay court nous for the youngster.

Cilic to beat Becker @ 1.5

Not the biggest fan of Cilic but he is a much better clay courter than Becker who stinks on this surface and I'm really suprised he is playing here instead of on the hardcourts in America.
Cilic is an all surface player but his best results have come on clay which includes 2 challenger wins and a atp semi final win on this surface.
Becker on the otherhand is a poor claycourter. His only wins on the clay have come against fellow clay court clowns - Johansson, Kunitsyn and Zimonjic.
Nice stuff there mate. I wanted to take Mantilla but could only find 1.48 (Betfair). Where did you get that price? Thanks.
 

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Nice stuff there mate. I wanted to take Mantilla but could only find 1.48 (Betfair). Where did you get that price? Thanks.
Actually, I left 1.7 overnight to be matched, however it seems no one has taken it and now the is 1.48-1.5 so going to have to take that.
 

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season: 176-167; +2,20 units

Vanek -3,0 @1,80 5 units
Cilic -3,0 @1,75 8 units
Lee -2,5 @1,75 6 units
Simon -3,0 @1,80 5 units
Massu -4,5 @1,80 10 units
 

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Hrbaty for me.

Hrbaty is in a slump and is certainly due a win.
Korolev is being overrated here. He isn't playing well at the moment either
And he hasn't beaten anyone ranked as high as Hrbaty before.

If the Dominator can find some form, he should win.

Ridiculous odds on Korolev. Hrbaty worth taking.

GL
 
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