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Who will be #1 after the USO 2012?

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Points since the end of USO 2011:

Federer- 4,810
Murray- 3,200
Djokovic- 2,740
Nadal- 2,170

Federer just has to tread water from IW to RG, I think. If he is even or within striking distance of Rafa/Nole from Halle to USO, Roger's got a great shot to steal a few weeks after the USO and get to Sampras, and if he wins the USO in so doing, it would be very fitting.

Murray surprisingly is #2, considering his post AO Asian swing last year where he did well. He will need to win surely one of the slams remaining this year to get it, unless he dominated the 1000 events. Nadal is coming into the prime of his season from IW to Wimbledon, and if he can get a nice lead heading into the USO hard court season, he could hold off the rest.

Djokovic, the pressure is all on him to defend his titles from last year. He need not defend all of them, just a few 1000's and one more slam should seal up #1 for him until after the USO, but that is easier said than done.
 

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Federer, clearly.

If there's anything he's shown in recent years it's that he can play A WHOLE SEASON on high level.
 

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Definitely not Federer.. he won on faster outdoor HC, before indoor HC and suddenly he is clearly next No.1....

He won´t get on slow outdoor HC and clay so many points like NAdal-Nole, don´t believe he can surpass both of them, it won´t happen.
 

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NID Federer wins a couple of MM and everyone starts thinking he'll become no 1 soon enough

MTF bandwagoning never ceases to amaze
 

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Djokovic will still be number 1. I don't see Nadal holding his #2 spot though.
 

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IW + Miami + Clay Season = 5000+ points. Of which the vast majority will be shared in between Nadal and Djokovic, given the kind of conditions all these tournaments are playing under.

So, I say wait patiently for your wet dream of having anyone else other than Nadal and Djokovic at the top of the game anytime soon.
 

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This is all very well but from IW to the US Open is not the part of the season where you'd expect Federer to pick up the most points. At best you'd think he'd be 3rd behind Nadal and Djokovic. Federer's performances on fast HCs cannot translate to slow HCs - the Aus Open made that pretty clear. I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't make the semis at IW/Miami and if he does you'd still fancy one of Rafole to take him out - they know exactly how to play him on that surface.

Then come clay season you'd expect Nadal to match or do better than last year. Sure his clay form has been suspect at times but it's still pretty high and he has a better chance of getting to the final of RG than Fed does. Same goes for Wimbledon - Roger lost in the QFs the last 2 years.

Not saying it's impossible for Fed to get to no.1 - just that his recent success doesn't make him seem like anywhere near the best player in the world - post US Open he's beaten a weary Nadal on his worst surface, then lost in 4 at the Aus Open; beaten Murray in a fairly even contest on a fast court - where though Fed was good it was by no means an unbeatable performance and he's not faced Djokovic. The point is getting to no.1 will depend on how the top 4 do against each other more than anything else. Fed is more likely to be the lose in semis against Nole/Rafa than the other way around. I still think it'll be tough for him to get to no.1...

Let's not forget that Isner loss was only a few weeks ago - he's not suddenly going to be 2006/7 level again in the next 6 months.
 

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Discussion Starter #11
The Gold Medal at the Olympics is worth 850 points this year, almost a 1000.

Regardless, for anyone to have a shot, it all comes down to the slams. Djoker already has one this year. Rafa will surely hold serve at RG. So I think the Wimbledon/Olympic run will be crucial. And even more crucial, Canada Masters starts the day after the Olympics final.

It may all come down to the USO SF/F, which as tennis fans, would be sex.
 

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Novak Djokovic, I love Fed but I don't believe he has more than 1% chance getting to number 1.

Anyway, that's not what I wish for him : I would just be wonderfully happy if he finally won one slam again.

And winning Dubai or Rotterdam is also great :D
 

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The Gold Medal at the Olympics is worth 850 points this year, almost a 1000.

Regardless, for anyone to have a shot, it all comes down to the slams. Djoker already has one this year. Rafa will surely hold serve at RG. So I think the Wimbledon/Olympic run will be crucial. And even more crucial, Canada Masters starts the day after the Olympics final.

It may all come down to the USO SF/F, which as tennis fans, would be sex.
will need to see how this clay court season plays out but i think djoker has a bigger chance of getting RG than nadal
 

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Federer, clearly.

If there's anything he's shown in recent years it's that he can play A WHOLE SEASON on high level.
I am glad to read this kind of insightful comment from you. :)
 

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Discussion Starter #15
will need to see how this clay court season plays out but i think djoker has a bigger chance of getting RG than nadal
As a Rafa fan, I admit, I'm a bit nervous for the clay season and RG for Nadal.

Though to be fair, I was more nervous last year, good thing Roger took Djoker out in SF.

This year, though, I think Rafa is in a better mental state vs. Djokovic after that AO final.

Then again, last year things didn't really turn around until Indian Wells/Miami/Madrid/Rome, so we'll see.

Also, Rafa may or may not play Madrid, but at the time, the points may be close and Rafa will need all the point he can. And he is definitely playing Barcelona this year too. Will be 4 tourneys in 5 weeks for Rafa, Monte Carlo to Rome, but he's done it before.
 

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The Serb.
 

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IW/Miami - 1600
Monte Carlo - 1000
Madrid - 1000
Rome - 1000
RG - 2000
Wimbledon - 2000
Olympics - 850

Federer's 'massive' lead will be pulvarized by Nadal, this is where the Nr. 1 spot will be won. And if it's not going to Rafa, it sure as hell isn't going to Federer. It's between Djokovic and Nadal.

And if Federer grabs it due to all these 500 and indoor MM titles, he won't be 'the real nr. 1, the best player at that moment.
 

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we seem to go through this every spring...Federer needs to defend his RG Final and win either Wimby and/or USO to have a chance and he has to hope that Novak doesn't win RG and/or one of Wimby/USO.
 

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for a player to become no. 1 these days, he needs at least 1 (most likely 2) GS.

i can't see it happening any other way. the numbers simply won't add up
 

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Federer defending RG final is science fiction.
 
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