Mens Tennis Forums banner

Who is more likely to surpass Federer's 17 slams first?

1 - 20 of 55 Posts

·
Registered
Joined
·
10,079 Posts
Discussion Starter #1
OK, let's be rational.
There bound to be someone to surpass Federer's 17 slams, and right now, the closest are Nadal and Djokovic (unless someone think Murray has a chance?).

So who is more likely to surpass it first, Nadal or Djokovic?

Nadal is closest of course, with 14, but he seems to be declining pretty fast and unless he makes a superhuman comeback, his better chance for him to collect more slams is at FO.
Meanwhile, Djokovic is still halfway there, but he is very consistent and still peaking and meanwhile there is literally nobody among the youngsters that may threaten his supremacy in the next couple of years at least.

I intentionally did not provide the third option: neither, because I want to gauge opinion who is more likely between these two players only. So please, do not state "neither"
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
4,064 Posts
More likely is Nadal, but I think neither will do it. If the record gets broken someone else, yet unknown, may do it.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
350 Posts
When Sampras won 14 slams we thought it would stand a long time because tennis was more competitive, no more easy rounds...
That being said, Federer can relax, Nadal and Djokovic wont catch up on him.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
5,195 Posts
Nadal 33% chance (51% for equalizing 17) , Djokovic just 1% for equalizing 17 only, because he's got only 8 titles with the new 1995+ strong generation already well on the horizon and because of the rigged slam draws for Fedal against Djokovic or any other future no.1 for at least two seasons more and because Djokovic will continue to accrue masters spending a lot of energy there to stay as no.1.

So no more than 13 slams for Djokovic (probably even less than that) and probably the most masters titles.

Even with fixed slams draws for him instead of Fedal or maybe Murray in the future, Djokovic would not reach 15 slams.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
218 Posts
Neither. Djokovic has to win 10 more slams to surpass Roger (and that's if Roger doesn't add anymore to his count). It's extremely unlikely he's going to win that many slams considering he seems incapable of winning more than one slam a season. Also, eventually he will decline with age. Nadal has to win 4 more slams to do it but its hard to see him winning 4 more slams (especially outside of RG).
 

·
Banned
Joined
·
15,396 Posts
Novak of course. Nadal has big fat 0% chances of doing this. That should be quite clear by now.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
5,190 Posts
As always, only Rafa has a chance.

If Rafa wins RG this year, there we have the answer. If he does not, we will have to wait until RG 2016 to have the answer. How he does in various tournaments in the next 14 months will give us the answer.

Yes, we need to wait 14 months to write off a 14 slam champion.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
20,731 Posts
Although Djokovic is winning everything atm, remember Nishikori at the UO? Wawrinka the AO before that? Age will catch up with him pretty soon too.

Nadal looks gone, I wouldn't be surprised if he retires next season.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,934 Posts
Neither.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,636 Posts
This is a really stupid question, Djokovic has been Pro since 2003 winning 8 Grand Slams in a period of almost 12 years (5 years in his so-called prime). How the hell i am supposed to think he can duplicate his slam count and win 2+ with already 28 years :confused: He needs 3 more to even catch Borg!, lets not talk about 14 and not remotely close to 17


The dirtballer case is a little more complicated. If Nadal wins RG 15 Then is a 75% that he will at least tie Federer.

In any case both Djokovic and Nadal can tied and surpass federer record. In Djokovic case is extremely difficult and i won't bet my money with him, but if nadal wins this RG then we must really begin thinking about him geeting 17 ATLEAST

I really think this will be the slam count at the end of their careers.

Federer : 18
Nadal : 17-18
Djokovic : 13-14
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
4,281 Posts
It's looking very unlikely in both cases, but Nadal has the better chance, due to being a lot closer. A lot can happen in the time Djokovic would need to come even close.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
11,737 Posts
If not Djokovic or Nadal, someone will surely surpass and ass fuck Fed's 17 Grand Slam count in the next few million years or so. So...who cares.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
9,517 Posts
I think no one will catch Federer . Djokovic can play well now but in two months will he play like that forever?! What if Federer wins one more and make them dream again?! Federer will end with most GS' and most weeks at #1 because the deal is already done.Why do you think Federer still plays?! Why can not Nadal win AO again ?! They need to make the game a bit interesting with help of the press/media in public. Federer did/does so much for the game as no one ever has done.He made Nadal,Djokovic and Murray to get better players and dream to catch him. Let see what Djokovic and Nadal have done ?! Did they make other players to dream or inspire them to catch them?! What is a family without kids ?! The game should be even better after them but where are the next players??? I am sure that no one of them will like to see the game in big hole after they retire.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
19,652 Posts
This is a really stupid question, Djokovic has been Pro since 2003 winning 8 Grand Slams in a period of almost 12 years (5 years in his so-called prime). How the hell i am supposed to think he can duplicate his slam count and win 2+ with already 28 years :confused:
He was a late bloomer. Therefore only 4 years so far in his prime (I would not count his pre-glutenfree years as such, for obvious reasons, even if he won 1 slam during that time).

Though all this speculation is still unnecessary, too early to tell, even if RG+WB will pass.
We need to see in the long run whether Nadal is done winning slams (or maybe reduced to just RG), whether Djokovic can produce multislam seasons to catch up gradually.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,674 Posts
Still Nadal.

If Rafa can put together a couple of good slam runs, he's back in the hunt. Of course his body needs to hold up.

Novak however is far far behind, its too late for him I'm afraid. :(
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
6,721 Posts
Stronga will rise.
 
1 - 20 of 55 Posts
Top