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More likely to cause an upset in SF?


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Discussion Starter #1
Average odds are pretty close at the moment and I expect them to get even more closer :

Gulbis E. - Djokovic N. 6.21 - 1.13
Nadal R. - Murray A. 1.17 - 5.32

But who do you think has the better chance of causing an upset and winning their SF match - Gulbis or Murray? I think that both are highly unlikely, but I can't imagine Murray beating Nadal on clay in RG even if I try my hardest. Gulbis has an outside chance.
 

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Gulbis. He is playing better tennis and will be better rested. Most importantly, he is facing an opponent under a world of pressure.
 

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OK, the player who has troubled two Top 10 players in this tourney, has been undefeated on France this year, and against a player who has a mission to do...or, the player who has only lost one in the tourney, facing against a player whom many think would have a problem going to the SFs here, and has beaten him recently...easy guess?
 

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Murray, he has won 7 GS semifinal matches already, has beaten Nadal before, and Nadal is not in his best.
Gulbis is in a good run, but Novak is a man on a mission.
 

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Gulbis. But still the chance is very slim. I just hope that it wouldn't be a 5-setter so that Novak has some energy left for the dream final.
 

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Discussion Starter #9
I think that if you look at this from "Gulbis/Murray" perspective then it may seem obvious that the answer should be Gulbis, but if you look from "Djokovic/Nadal" perspective - who of those 2 is more likely to be upset (who is playing worse) then it's really not that obvious as Djokovic really seems kind of unbeatable at the moment, whereas Nadal...
 

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Gulbis can still be the Stan of RG anyway
 

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I think that if you look at this from "Gulbis/Murray" perspective then it may seem obvious that the answer should be Gulbis, but if you look from "Djokovic/Nadal" perspective - who of those 2 is more likely to be upset (who is playing worse) then it's really not that obvious as Djokovic really seems kind of unbeatable at the moment, whereas Nadal...
I would actually say the opposite... it's hard to bet against the guy that's lost once at this tournament.
 

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Tempting to say Gulbis but then Murray has beaten Nadal in a slam semi final before and Gulbis hasn't beaten Djokovic in one.
 

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Gulbis because of his big serve and general huge game as well as Djokovic's incredible choking abilities.
 

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They are both quite unlikely I would say odds are about right. With Andy being the slightly more likely.

Ok Gulbis has beaten fed and berdych, twinerer is hardly at his peak and the less said about the pathetic efforts of berdych the better. Novak looks the best player by far at RG this year up until now and his consistency will be far too much for Ernie in a Bo5. Gulbis beating Nole will be a massive suprise he has the talent on the craziest hot streak of his life maybe but he's already had 2 great performances a dud is defiantly more likely.
 

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Big Ernie has the better chance, but neither is likely.

The only hope for Clayray really is that the Rafito version from the Madrid Final shows up, and that's highly unlikely. Rafa has the stamina and the shots. Plus, Clayray cannot outfox Rafa on clay -- if Rafa thinks Murray is tiring he will only press harder.
 

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Murray has the much harder ask. Djokovic, as good as he is, is not the number 1 in the world at tournament that he's won 8 times.
 
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