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Discussion Starter #1
Listen its really hard to say if he is getting ready to peak for the year...this strech aside from the short grass one is best suited for his game.. i thought aussie open he played damn well but per federer he wasn't back to complete physical form till march... then he had the birth of his twins and that set his game back a bit right before grass season.. even though had he not played nadal at aussie he would have won the aussie open likely. He played very well at indian wells and dubai on those hard courts and novak squeaked by him in indian wells final set breaker.

1. Movement/Defense: As good as i've seen it since 2012. And federer has always had a blistering forward motion. This is actually cutting his baseline rallies against the likes of murray/nole and giving them less rhythm as they now have to be mindfull of his net approaches.

2. Serve: That second serve has improved with the new racket and maybe he gets a bit higher percentage on that first serve..

3. Backhand: rock solid against the barrage by murray and nole.. .that all that really matters. He's slicing more and also slicing to the forehand.

4. Return: good enough. He creates the break points but conversion has always been an issue.

5. Break points: Fed may be better going a bit more for the second serve on break point.. a la against ferrer hitting deep forehands... not flat out winners but enought that he comes to net and ends the point... that should be a sneak tactic he uses...to surpirse the opponent.

6.Forehand... its resurrection is happening.. it has been a spinny, loopy shot all season and even then was good enuf to beat nole nearly everytime they met.. .the difference is sine monfils and murray... he has gotten a bit more confidence on that wing.. aided with his movment that tactic of going to the foreward wing has not been working nearly as well for the competition. He needs that running forehand backs which we say in cinci with a tired fed..

7: volleys: improved drastically. His transition game was there but now he's putting it together. Yes he misse some easy volleys here and there but his set up is perfect and some of that was due to fatigue and just getting used to doing this over and over. He now knows when to come in.. he's had the volleys but this alone is going to be the biggest asset against murray-nole at us open.. its unusual for someone with a baseline game that can go toe to toe for the most part with nole-murray to have this type of net game.. .this will be the x factor.. quicker points... less rhythm for the opponent and a fresher more agressive fed throughout the match.

8. Mental: has been fighting back in many matches and winning almost all his 3 set matches in the deciding set. More importantly he's hitting the big shot in the big moment or getting the ace on break points. The win in cincy will give him even more confidence and now he in a good spot.

Ideally, now that nadal is gone fed would like ferrer over wawarinka but even if he gets wawa its not guarantee if wawa makes it that far. The worst quarter for fed is birdshit or murray. Fed has not lost to either and its a 50/50 match if they are drawn. If fed gets birdshit or murray then thats a major roadblock and he will need his game on to get through that one. If fed does not have either of those guys you can pencil him in to the semis.

Fed needs rest and the 8-9 days off should give him enough of that since the guy is in really great shape to play 10 matches in 12-13 days with the worst possible scheduling and still getting a finals and win back to back. Fed should get at worst a spot in the quarters... unless he gets tsonga... lets hope novak gets tsonga, murray, and wawa. I feel novak will be bettter off with that and his game will be there in the final weekend for a thrilling final.. .against who is up to fed and the draw.
 

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I think he's perfectly primed for a good run in New York. If there's one thing he can still work on it's the first-volley putaways, but his overall net game has been solid the last few weeks.
 

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Good analysis of his game. My only issues are that his first serve seems to desert him for entire games at times, and his forehand is still inconsistent when it comes to power, and his backhand you still hold your breath every time he decides not to slice. I also thing his recent string of really bad volley misses had to do with tired legs, which could be a problem deep at USO.
 

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Discussion Starter #4
To beat monfils and avoiding an upset over birdshit...

1. forehand: started seeing some pop on it in cincy-toronto and looks like he's stepped it up a notch in the last two matches against spanish armada... He'll need it badly going forward at this point.

2. Serve: days when nothing else is working this is his bread and butter. Low serve % and lots of doubles likely due to the wind last match but good to get that rust off now and maybe open his eye to working on it a bit more going forward just so its primed. Even with the wind and rust he was clutch on the break points against batista-agut.

3. Volleys: IMPROVED since cinci-toronto... Not missing many easy ones and he's anticipating angles, cutting them off, and putting away that first volley much better

4. backhand: rock solid drive with good pace, depth.... needs to go down the line a bit more but will neeed the slice more and more against monfils and if he gets through agains birdshit... they are tall 6'4" with two handers so thats the better play and mix it up.

5. Movement/defense... Excellent. Sometimes looks like the fed from 2008-2010 in this aspect... but going forward he must be efficient and has gotta get through monfils in 3 sets... it'll keep him fresh and he'll need all of that if he hopes to beat birdshit. The turnaround between thurs night and 2nd satur semis is SHORTEST out of all the remaining players.. he needs to be as fresh as possible and bring his game against monfils to get out of there quick...or it'll cost him goign forward if he gets there

6. day time adjustments: If he gets through monfils.. He better play some sets on ashe during the day on friday to get more used to the conditions or that coudl cost him like it did vs tsonga.
 

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Discussion Starter #9
Fed is not beating monfils and birdshit.. monfils is 50/50 and birdshit is 70/30 birdshit...

bottom line is fed is not making it to the final.. djoker is too good regardless... only fed 2004-2006 and maybe if he had his new raquet 2009-2011 as well could beat him
 

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Oh stop this shit already. Of course Federer is well past his prime and thus became very susceptible to form fluctuations etc, but Roger is still perfectly capable of beating those 3 mentioned players on a good day. Just imagine how the Wimbledon final would have played out If has had his normal forehand.
 

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Fed is not beating monfils and birdshit.. monfils is 50/50 and birdshit is 70/30 birdshit...

bottom line is fed is not making it to the final.. djoker is too good regardless... only fed 2004-2006 and maybe if he had his new raquet 2009-2011 as well could beat him
You seem to disagree with the bookies.

At present, odds on Federer to reach the final is 4/7. In other words, unless odds are set wrong there's around 60% chance of it happening.

If you're fully convinced Fed has only a 15% chance then I advise you to bet really big on him not making the final. Difference between 15% and 60% is massive. You won't get many opportunities like that.
 
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