second poll choice should say right after wimby
What are you talking about. The first tournament where actually Fed has less points to defend than Nadal are IW and Miami. It is really a very small difference SFs for Fed and Fs for Nadal. Fed will most probably not play MC so his chances are not looking any good unless he wins every other tournament until Wimbledon. I don't think you should count Fed as any contender for N1 at this point. At least not before he wins a major tournament next year.It's pretty interesting that Federer got a golden opportunity to retake #1 after Wimbledon or later. His strong season finish winning Basel, Paris and WTF is a sweet 3000 points in total. Meanwhile Nadal and Djokovic didn't gain much at all in that stretch and will now defend a ton of points the coming months.
Federer won't defend nearly as much until RG where he ofc defends the final spot. But as he crashed out in QF in Wimby that is where he should be able to overtake Djokovic/Nadal
It's definitely gonna be tricky for Djokovic to hold on to #1 because he ended the year so poorly. Had he only gained 500 more points or so I'd give him a bigger chance. Now he might lose it after Wimbledon/USO