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Discussion Starter #1
Well ok, I will move this discussion from out of that Cincy thread. This was mentioned as a side point in that thread and it's something I am interested in. Someone said that Rafa has no chance of overtaking Roger this year....but looking at the Entry points I don't think that's true. Could someone illustrate how it's impossible for Roger to lose the #1 ranking this year?

It seems just on the surface to me that if Rafa were to win the USOpen and one more MS tournament he might do it. A lot can happen between now and the end of the year in that either guy could get injured. Roger has points to defend at the USOpen, while Rafa doesn't. What do you guys think?
 

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I think that if he wins the USopen, he is guarantied the no 1 spot to at least next year since he can gain a lots of point during the fall. It is going to be hard for Nadal to take over Roger this year unless Roger fail to defend 3/4 of his points. However, if Nadal doers way better than Roger during the rest of the year, he would put himself in good position to overtake Roger next year.
 

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You're not worried are you? Because you know that's what all the Rafa groupies want - a bunch of Roger fans all worried that he might lose #1. Next week all the big boys are back in action. And Roger's record in Cincy isn horrible. We all know he's going to want to correct that. Look after he lost at the FO - then he wins in Halle and Wimbledon and the limelight is back on him again. I don't think he's going to let Nadal hog the limelight to long. :devil:
 

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mirkaland said:
. I don't think he's going to let Nadal hog the limelight to long. :devil:
I rather be Roger than Andy, Lleyton and Marat.Nobody talks about them anymore. The media talks only about Rafa and Roger.
 

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Discussion Starter #5
Shy said:
I think that if he wins the USopen, he is guarantied the no 1 spot to at least next year since he can gain a lots of point during the fall. It is going to be hard for Nadal to take over Roger this year unless Roger fail to defend 3/4 of his points. However, if Nadal doers way better than Roger during the rest of the year, he would put himself in good position to overtake Roger next year.
If Roger wins the USOpen, I think he would clinch the #1 ranking for the year....but what happens if he doens't win it and Nadal were to win it instead? Right now it seems to me that both Roger and Rafa will have to try to outdo the other for the remaining tournaments.

I love Roger, but I am just looking at this realistically and wondering. I think a factor to consider is that everything isn't even determined by how they match up to each other. A big factor can be how well Hewitt, Roddick, and Safin are playing. Usually in a major or MS to get to a final a player has to have a couple of hard matches against some other top 5 guys. So far I don't think Nadal has never faced back to back top 5 opponents that give him a battle. He lucked out in Miami and Montreal both times. If Safin and Hewitt were on their game they could bother Nadal a lot.
 

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Don't get too worried, but it's not at all impossible for Roger to lose the top ranking this year; Nadal can take it from him as early as the end of the US Open.

At the moment Roger is still 2000+ points ahead, but that can change very quickly, especially as he has a grand slam title to defend shortly. For him to lose it, Rafa would probably have to win both Cincy and the USO, and Roger would have to get less than 300-500 points in these events. It depends partly on whether Nadal plays at New Haven as well, as he could pick up points there.
 

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Posted by PamV

The Entry rank is what determines who is the year ending #1 so isn't that more important? Sampras was #1 for six years in the Entry ranking system and that's one record that Roger wanted to match. I don't know if Sampras held that spot consecutively for 6 years or if he ever lost the spot within a year and then got it back by year's end.

No, the entry ranking includes points from last year which will be off by the end of the year. The race includes only points earned this year

In Sampras' time the race did not exist.

I've never heard that he wants any of Sampras' records. In fact in his interview to The Russian magazine " Prosport" he says " It's nice to have them (records), but it's not the reason why I'm playing."

Sampras did lose his number one ranking in the middle of the season a few times but always finished no1 at the end of the year, and it counts the most.

Nadal has a very good chance to finish this year No1. In fact, if he wins the USO, he 'll be no 1 in the mind of many people, no matter how points will play out at the end of the year. Because he''ll be the holder of 2 GS titles. The same applies to Roger if he wins the USO. Um.., if Safin wins the USO, will people consider him No1? :lol:
 

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Discussion Starter #8
mirkaland said:
You're not worried are you? Because you know that's what all the Rafa groupies want - a bunch of Roger fans all worried that he might lose #1. Next week all the big boys are back in action. And Roger's record in Cincy isn horrible. We all know he's going to want to correct that. Look after he lost at the FO - then he wins in Halle and Wimbledon and the limelight is back on him again. I don't think he's going to let Nadal hog the limelight to long. :devil:
Mirkaland....I am not even bothering to read what the Nadal fans post. I have been wondering about how secure Roger's #1 spot is all by myself for a long time. I am a Roger fan all the way....but I just like to talk realistically about what is going on. I don't we think should hide our thoughts for fear that the Nadal zealouts will read this. I don't let myself be controlled by them one way or another.
 

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Yes, Sampras was number one for six years at the end of the year. Being number one at the end of the year is just "neat"; with a twelve month rolling system, no week is more important than another. He only ever had 102 weeks consecutively at number one - both Connors and Lendl had more than a year longer than that. (Year-end number one is an overrated statistic imo.)
 

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Discussion Starter #10 (Edited)
ExpectedWinner said:
No, the entry ranking includes points from last year which will be off by the end of the year. The race includes includes only points earned this year
Of course entry rank points get replaced by the current year's results. What I am saying is that the Entry Rank system is what determines who is the true #1, and the year ending #1. The Entry Rank is always what is used for seeding in tournaments. It's really what the players care about MORE than the ATP Race.

The ATP race is soley for the purpose of determining who plays in the year end Masters Cup.
 

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Discussion Starter #11
jtipson said:
Yes, Sampras was number one for six years at the end of the year. Being number one at the end of the year is just "neat"; with a twelve month rolling system, no week is more important than another. He only ever had 102 weeks consecutively at number one - both Connors and Lendl had more than a year longer than that. (Year-end number one is an overrated statistic imo.)
I was wondering about that. How many consecutive weeks has Roger had as Entry Rank #1? Those things are always talked about in the debate over who is better between Federer and Sampras.
 

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PamV said:
Of course entry rank points get replaced by the current year's results. What I am saying is that the Entry Ranks system is what determines who is the true #1, and the year ending #1.

The ATP race is soley for the purpose of determining who plays in the year end Masters Cup.
But at the end of the year entry ranking is a mirror reflection of the race. Only amount of points is calculated differently. Players who are No1, 51, 101 in the race at the end of the year will be number 1, 51, 101 in the entry ranking.
 

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PamV said:
Of course entry rank points get replaced by the current year's results. What I am saying is that the Entry Rank system is what determines who is the true #1, and the year ending #1. The Entry Rank is always what is used for seeding in tournaments. It's really what the players care about MORE than the ATP Race.

The ATP race is soley for the purpose of determining who plays in the year end Masters Cup.
Yeah but I think at the end of the year whoever is #1 in the Race will also be #1 in the Entry Rankings. At least someone here who knows better than me said so.
 

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PamV said:
Mirkaland....I am not even bothering to read what the Nadal fans post. I have been wondering about how secure Roger's #1 spot is all by myself for a long time. I am a Roger fan all the way....but I just like to talk realistically about what is going on. I don't we think should hide our thoughts for fear that the Nadal zealouts will read this. I don't let myself be controlled by them one way or another.
I understand. It's just that's what their waiting to pounce on. Any hint of worry by Roger fans. Already there's posts in GM with all the supposed excuses (I'm guessing by Fed fans) for why Rafa won today - even though no one is downlplaying his win at all.

I don't worry about what I can't control. And I think Roger should just worry about himself and not care about Rafa (not saying you think he should). In fact in Cincy I hope he just focuses on the match in front of him and doesn't think about a potential final with Rafa.
 

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Discussion Starter #16
ExpectedWinner said:
Posted by PamV

I've never heard that he wants any of Sampras' records. In fact in his interview to The Russian magazine " Prosport" he says " It's nice to have them (records), but it's not the reason why I'm playing."
He might not admit that he cares, but I think it's obvious he does . He has said one of his goals this year it to end the year as #1. Why would he care about that unless he wants to try to get close to Sampras record of 6 years in a row? Roger cares about all the records that show him to be one of the greats.....such as the first to win 3 majors in a year since Wilander, the first since Borg to win on 3 different surfaces in back to back to back tourneys, or the string of 20 some final wins. I think he also holds the record for wins over top 10 opponents.

Roger is definitely not in this for the money....he wants records and titles.
 

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Discussion Starter #17
ExpectedWinner said:
But at the end of the year entry ranking is a mirror reflection of the race. Only amount of points is calculated differently. Players who are No1, 51, 101 in the race at the end of the year will be number 1, 51, 101 in the entry ranking.
By the end of the year the #1 player will be the same in both. However, technically they look at the results of the Entry Rank to determine who is year end #1. The Entry Rank is the most important thing too because in the coming year it determines who is the #1 seed in tournaments.

Through out the entire year the Entry Rank is what is used to determine the true #1 because otherwise at the start of the year the first player to win a tournament would be the #1 player in the ATP Race....however, that doesn't carry much weight because we know that everyone starts from scratch and it will fluctuate.
 

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PamV said:
However, technically they look at the results of the Entry Rank to determine who is year end #1.

:confused: No, they don't. Somebody with better English than mine should explain you this.

" The Entry Rank is the most important thing too because in the coming year it determines who is the #1 seed in tournaments. "

This is true. But the entry ranking can confuse you in terms who has the best chances to become No1 at the end of the year because it can be inflated with points from last year. Example- Hewitt.
 

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PamV said:
He might not admit that he cares, but I think it's obvious he does . He has said one of his goals this year it to end the year as #1. Why would he care about that unless he wants to try to get close to Sampras record of 6 years in a row?

Because he finished No 1 only once. Sampras' records are not beatable. I really hope that he's not thinking about them.
 

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Roger could lose the no. 1 ranking if Nadal wins the Champions Race this year. It´s that simple. Right now, the gap between Roger and Nadal is 73 points in the CR. Roger is leading by 2145 points in the Entry Ranking right now. Both Nadal and Roger have lost early in Cincy last year and can gain points. The worst case would be if Roger loses in the first round of Cincy and at the US Open (he would lose 1000 points) and Nadal wins both tourneys (he would gain 1460). So Roger would still have a decent gap. Roger didn´t play the indoor season last year and Nadal didn´t have any decent results during that part of the year, so both can earn lots of points. The big difference is the Masters Cup. Roger won it while Nadal didn´t qualify for it. Let´s say Nadal wins it without losing any match and Roger loses all of his rr-matches. Roger would lose 750 points and Nadal would gain 750 points. So if we go by the ER, I just can´t see Roger losing the number 1 spot this year. But if we go by the CR, Nadal could be the new number 1 after the masters cup.
 
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