[Snowwy]

Premise

Simulate the ATP season continuing from where we left off before Indian Wells. I have not decided on the frequency of simulation yet. There will be random draws based on ATP ELO rankings. Matches will be simulated using surface ELO and probability using a random number generator. There will be a fatigue factor (from week to week - not during the week) and an age factor every 5 weeks (1/10th of the season). After each event there will be new overall ELO rankings.

Participants’ Role

You will manage a team of 10 ATP players. You can have them enter whatever weeks you want, keeping in my that players will become less effective and fatigue over the course of the season if they are played too often. The goal is to have your players do as well as possible.

Draft

The draft order will be 1 through 8 in the 1st, 4th, 7th, 9th and 10th rounds and 8 through 1 in the 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 6th and 8th rounds.

Participants

Please re-confirm your interest as I was missing (for those of you who do not know, I have a 1 month old son) for a while.

Snowwy - Confirmed
Jaker - Confirmed
a1canada - Confirmed
@BMT360 - Confirmed
@NextGenKing - Confirmed
@PortlandTimbers - Confirmed
@nachotuerto - Confirmed
@teamthiem

 

[BMT360]

Confirm

 

[NextGenKing]

Confirm. Hope you are well

EDIT: wow just read properly congrats mate

 

[a1canada]

confirmed , might be fun, rig it that Canadians win it all after I pick them please

 

[nachotuerto]

Confirmed

 

[PortlandTimbers]

Congrats 👶
confirmed

 

[supertom]

Here to join!

 

[Snowwy]

supertom is in!

 

[Snowwy]

1. Snowwy
2. Jaker
3. BMT360
4. NextGenKing
5. a1canada
6. nachotuerto
7. PortlandTimbers
8. supertom

 

[Snowwy]

Draft Order

1. a1canada
2. supertom
3. PortlandTimbers
4. Jaker
5. NextGenKing
6. BMT360
7. nachotuerto
8. Snowwy

Random Sequence Generator

Here is your sequence:

5
8
7
2
4
3
6
1


Timestamp: 2020-04-08 12:28:59 UTC

 

[BMT360]

@Snowwy - It might be a smart idea to put an ~12-16 hour time limit on each pick. If a player doesn't select someone, the draft continues and the player who was skipped can make up their pick at any time. I use this rule in my dynasty fantasy baseball leagues and it works quite well. At this pace, the draft will take weeks.

 

[a1canada]

@Snowwy - It might be a smart idea to put an ~12-16 hour time limit on each pick. If a player doesn't select someone, the draft continues and the player who was skipped can make up their pick at any time. I use this rule in my dynasty fantasy baseball leagues and it works quite well. At this pace, the draft will take weeks.

Usually an automatic pick of top player available in Fantasy football after timed out

 

[Snowwy]

@Snowwy - It might be a smart idea to put an ~12-16 hour time limit on each pick. If a player doesn't select someone, the draft continues and the player who was skipped can make up their pick at any time. I use this rule in my dynasty fantasy baseball leagues and it works quite well. At this pace, the draft will take weeks.

Yeah I agree but lets wait til after the first round. some people might not realise we started since it was a quick start after an endless delay. I think our group of 8 should be pretty good once everryone is on track

 

[NextGenKing]

Usually an automatic pick of top player available in Fantasy football after timed out

This makes fairer sense

 

[Snowwy]

This makes fairer sense

Sorry I didn't read clearly, we would use the suggestion a1 made. Does @nachotuerto know we have started? Not your turn, but will be soon.

 

[NextGenKing]

Sorry I didn't read clearly, we would use the suggestion a1 made. Does @nachotuerto know we have started? Not your turn, but will be soon.

He knows mate and has all his wish list ready...

 

[NextGenKing]

When we pick, we should pick higher ranked?

As in...will the simulation generally favour high ranks?

 

[Snowwy]

The simulation uses surface ELO rankings.

Premise

Simulate the ATP season continuing from where we left off before Indian Wells. I have not decided on the frequency of simulation yet. There will be random draws based on ATP ELO rankings. Matches will be simulated using surface ELO and probability using a random number generator. There will be a fatigue factor (from week to week - not during the week) and an age factor every 5 weeks (1/10th of the season). After each event there will be new overall ELO rankings.

@NextGenKing the simulation uses surface ELO rankings (higher players will do better). Basically it calculated the probability of a player winning based on ELO like Tennis Abstract does. Say Fed vs Djokovic is 20% vs 80% on grass based on ELO rankings. Then Excel gives a random number for every match. Say for this match the number is 0.13, or below 0.2 the Fed wins. If it’s above 0.2 then Djokovic wins. Depending on the absolute value away from the probability, a score is randomly assigned. Using Fed Djokovic from above if the number is 0.18 then the the difference is small, so the score will be close. Say the number is 0.76, which is far from 0.2 of Fed winning then the score will be in straight sets. This means that a favourite is more likely to win on straights while an underdog is more likely to win in a tight match. Also there is fatigue from event to event. If you have your players play a Thiem or Davydenko schedule they will do worse then if they are well rested (like ATP). There is no fatigue within an event. Then there is an age factor every five weks players age by 0.1. Old players get a bit worse. Young players get a bit better. Middle aged players stay the same.

 

[supertom]

@Snowwy you are considéring the ATP ElO global or by surface? By surface it is more appropriate in order to match players with their best surface isn’t it?
mans by this season we can cover hard court clay grass

 

[Snowwy]

@Snowwy you are considéring the ATP ElO global or by surface? By surface it is more appropriate in order to match players with their best surface isn’t it?
mans by this season we can cover hard court clay grass

The rankings are done by global but the head to head uses by surface.