[ogre]

Vaccines cannot be any help for the upcoming Australian open. So when can things change due to vaccines?

Currently, there are several vaccines in final stages of approval, with successful trials for preventing Covid-19 disease.

The initial vaccine goal was to stop people filling up hospitals, ICUs and dying. Various trials suggest so far, several vaccines deliver.

But what about stopping the disease spreading?

So far, there does not seem to be any data on the effectiveness of the vaccines in preventing infection. The trials have been about stopping disease. See links like this: Moderna, Pfizer vaccines may prevent disease, but not infection

This means there is no data yet on whether people who are vaccinated can still infect others. People who have the vaccine will not get severely ill, which is good for those vaccinated, but may not do much to protect everybody else.

It seems logical that if you do not become very ill, you must have less of the virus and therefore be less infectious, but you may still be able to infect others. If that can happen, then one traveller can still set of a chain of cases.

In Australia there was something like one new local infection in past week, and even that was from someone being infected by an international traveller in quarantine. Life is quite normal, people can meet in groups go to bars and restaurants, and even sporting fixtures can have crowds of spectators.

Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan, or any other country where they are currently on top of Covid-19 (perhaps even including China?) can't afford to all allow people in without quarantine, until either their population is vaccinated, or there are vaccines proven to prevent people being infectious.

Pity Australia is first Grand Slam. Players arriving the US, UK or France, would be no more likely to have Covid-19 than the local population, especially if tested and vaccinated. Surely outside of countries like Australia or New Zealand where they endured basically eliminating covid-10, it will be much easier?

These early season events for Australia and New Zealand are going to be a problem, but what problems will there be after Australia?

 

[groppler]

Covid-19, like the flu or similar viruses, is likely to mutate often and rapidly, so a vaccine may not be efficient for a long time whether it prevents infection or not. This is more likely to become endemic/permanent like the flu. Better start to just accept it as something normal.

 

[ogre]

Covid-19, like the flu or similar viruses, is likely to mutate often and rapidly, so a vaccine may not be efficient for a long time whether it prevents infection or not. This is more likely to become endemic/permanent like the flu. Better start to just accept it as something normal.

Coronaviruses mutate less often than the flu virus, but when there is so much of the virus out there, the risk of a mutation that defeats the vaccines has got to be very real.
I am currently in Australia, where the current status is easy to accept after the lockdowns to eradicate local spread. Aside from the problems with international travel, life is fairly normal.

Officially in the last 7 days, there have been 70 cases detected in international arrivals during their quarantine, and 5 cases of local infection including unconfirmed cases. Not earth shattering. In fact fairly normal.

Apart from anything that requires international travel from places where there are serious case number. So not normal for tennis tournaments.

But just maybe international tennis events in other countries, like the US, may get a boost from vaccines, at least until/if mutations get past the vaccines?

 

[BodyServe]

Coronaviruses mutate less often than the flu virus, but when there is so much of the virus out there, the risk of a mutation that defeats the vaccines has got to be very real.
I am currently in Australia, where the current status is easy to accept after the lockdowns to eradicate local spread. Aside from the problems with international travel, life is fairly normal.

This is a lot of crap, coronaviruses mutate much quicker than influenza viruses, always have been, but i guess they need those type of publications so they can sell their vaccines.

 

[ogre]

This is a lot of crap, coronaviruses mutate much quicker than influenza viruses, always have been, but i guess they need those type of publications so they can sell their vaccines.

Interesting. 'Colds' are coronaviruses, as opposed to 'the flu'. Seems creditable that they could mutate even faster than the flu, but all evidence I have seen says the opposite. I have not seem claims that coronaviruses do not mutate, but rather claims that they are quite stable and the mutations are limited. Clearly the Covid-19 does mutate a lot, otherwise there would not be all the differences that allow tracing which country an infection came from. Then, there was the case with the minks in Denmark where the suggestion is that they had a strain of the virus where the spike protein was sufficiently mutated as defeat the current vaccines. This is a mutation before we vaccinate a percentage of the population, creating the environment where a mutation that defeats vaccination will become 'the fittest'.

Have you found any evidence, or research or papers to counter the articles arguing coronaviruses are relatively stable? If so that would be good to be able to quote.

Clearly regardless of mutation rate relative to the 'flu', it does mutate, and quite a lot. There are significant risks of vaccines effectiveness being short-lived, not to mention that there is no evidence yet on vaccines preventing spread rather than just making the infection less severe.

 

[fab1]

Once a vaccine becomes available to the wider population, so probably in Q2 2021.. I think the clay court season will commence normally

 

[Rambo Apocalypse]

I expect most of the world will say if you're vaccinated you can come in. Places like Australia and China are special cases, I think they'll be requiring quarantine for the foreseeable future. AO may go ahead, but I think it makes more sense to move it to October after they've jabbed everyone (everyone who isn't an anti-vaxx numbskull anyway).

 

[Johnny Groove]

I expect USO with full crowds, maybe even Wimbledon and RG

Need those gate receipts

 

[Iblis_00]

The initial vaccine goal was to stop people filling up hospitals, ICUs and dying.

Yeah that will never happen, it'll only get worse.

 

[zebez20]

I expect USO with full crowds, maybe even Wimbledon and RG

Need those gate receipts

Wimbledon will definitely be full crowds, they've begun vaccinating the whole population.

 

[ogre]

I expect most of the world will say if you're vaccinated you can come in. Places like Australia and China are special cases, I think they'll be requiring quarantine for the foreseeable future. AO may go ahead, but I think it makes more sense to move it to October after they've jabbed everyone (everyone who isn't an anti-vaxx numbskull anyway).

I suspect most of the world will say "if you are vaccinated with a vaccine known to prevent you being infectious to others, then you can come in." Such vaccines do not yet exist.

If you are vaccinated only to prevent you getting sick from infection, but you may still get infected and infect others, why be able to avoid quarantine?

Currently, all that is known about current vaccines is 'if you are vaccinated, you should not get sick'.
There is currently no evidence that once vaccinated you are less likely to be carrying the virus and infectious to others.

As things are now, if you are required to quarantine now, being vaccinated should not make any difference as far as quarantine goes. It does mean the risk of Covid-19 is lowered to the person who is vaccinated, but not to anyone else.

Some vaccines may make prevent infection and prevent transmission, so far i have only heard such claims for the novavax vaccine, others have remained silent as it simply was not the goal for the first wave of vaccines.

 

[ogre]

Once a vaccine becomes available to the wider population, so probably in Q2 2021.. I think the clay court season will commence normally

That is fine once there are vaccines that prevent infection. Right now, vaccines only protect the vaccinated people, not those they are in contact with. With widely available vaccines, you could insist that for example, to be in the crowd you are vaccinated, but then people in the crowd could still get infected, go home and infect everyone else.

If the entire population is vaccinated, then it could be ok, but that will not be the case in q2.

However by q2 players could be vaccinated, and have less risk themselves in travelling to places where the players will not really be adding to the amount of virus already out there. As a player, you would want a vaccine to travel to New York, but you arriving is not going to add to the risk for New Yorkers.

 

[Jolyon]

Early 2022 is when we will have some idea about the effectiveness of the vaccine(s).

Can you all be patient and take things as they come as adults and stop behaving like minors?

 

[-Dominator-]

Hopefully ASAP. Given how effective the vaccienes are at preventing severe disease, there no justification to keep the restrictions up once risk groups (plus everybody else who wants to) have been vaccinated, since then the threat for the healthcare systems is gone and everything beyond that (like a widespread eradication of the Virus) isn't possible anyway.

 

[Hellenic Hero]

Hopefully ASAP. Given how effective the vaccienes are at preventing severe disease, there no justification to keep the restrictions up once risk groups (plus everybody else who wants to) have been vaccinated, since then the threat for the healthcare systems is gone and everything beyond that (like a widespread eradication of the Virus) isn't possible anyway.

Was gonna say the same thing - whilst only Oxford’s and Novavax’s seem to prevent asymptomatic infection, the rate of a severe case in a vaccinated person is about a 1 in 80 from what we’ve seen so far, so I believe (and Matt Hancock has already said similar) social distancing will start to go once people over 50 have all had their shots

 

[Kowchi]

Was gonna say the same thing - whilst only Oxford’s and Novavax’s seem to prevent asymptomatic infection, the rate of a severe case in a vaccinated person is about a 1 in 80 from what we’ve seen so far, so I believe (and Matt Hancock has already said similar) social distancing will start to go once people over 50 have all had their shots

It's going to take a while for everyone to "get their shot"

 

[-Dominator-]

Was gonna say the same thing - whilst only Oxford’s and Novavax’s seem to prevent asymptomatic infection, the rate of a severe case in a vaccinated person is about a 1 in 80 from what we’ve seen so far, so I believe (and Matt Hancock has already said similar) social distancing will start to go once people over 50 have all had their shots

Does this one also induce a sterilizing immunity? Know participants in one part of their trial performed weekly swabs, but prevention of infection wasn't the case in the animal trials beforehand. But given how hard they messed up their trials, I guess it will take some time anyway until it is going to be approved.

 

[ogre]

Was gonna say the same thing - whilst only Oxford’s and Novavax’s seem to prevent asymptomatic infection, the rate of a severe case in a vaccinated person is about a 1 in 80 from what we’ve seen so far, so I believe (and Matt Hancock has already said similar) social distancing will start to go once people over 50 have all had their shots

Neither of those has trials to support vaccinated people not infecting others yet (although things look good for rhesus monkeys). Also don't underestimate the severity in people under 50. Even asymptomatic people can have long term effects. It is a little like there is a risk covid-19 will take a number of years from your life, which means you only die now if it is more years than you have left. But even if you do not die now, you may still die early or have a compromised life.

 

[Rambo Apocalypse]

I suspect most of the world will say "if you are vaccinated with a vaccine known to prevent you being infectious to others, then you can come in." Such vaccines do not yet exist.

If you are vaccinated only to prevent you getting sick from infection, but you may still get infected and infect others, why be able to avoid quarantine?

Currently, all that is known about current vaccines is 'if you are vaccinated, you should not get sick'.
There is currently no evidence that once vaccinated you are less likely to be carrying the virus and infectious to others.

As things are now, if you are required to quarantine now, being vaccinated should not make any difference as far as quarantine goes. It does mean the risk of Covid-19 is lowered to the person who is vaccinated, but not to anyone else.

Some vaccines may make prevent infection and prevent transmission, so far i have only heard such claims for the novavax vaccine, others have remained silent as it simply was not the goal for the first wave of vaccines.

It is not yet proven, but the vaccine developers and other scientists expect it to. It only makes sense - if your immune system knows how to kill the virus you are less likely to spread it than if you're hosting it for a long time.

If transmission is not reduced whatsoever then I agree, it would make no difference. If it is reduced by, say, 50% I expect countries which already have widespread domestic transmission would be much more willing to let people in.

Obviously if you have almost no transmission, like in Australia, you will be far more cautious.

 

[slamjunky]

Neither of those has trials to support vaccinated people not infecting others yet (although things look good for rhesus monkeys). Also don't underestimate the severity in people under 50. Even asymptomatic people can have long term effects. It is a little like there is a risk covid-19 will take a number of years from your life, which means you only die now if it is more years than you have left. But even if you do not die now, you may still die early or have a compromised life.

Evidence for this? Seems a reach with the amount of time the ‘disease’ has been around.