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Djokovic fans almost sound like Novak winning 10 more slams is a given fact. Some other tennis fans consider that Djokovic is very likely to get the slam record. And the rest of the tennis fans don't deny that Djokovic is close to almost easily become the computer GOAT.

All of that based on what? Based on Djokovic needing plan B on his own slam to barely beat Thiem in 5 sets? Based on Thiem and some other young players getting better and better while Djokovic is gradually declining physically? Based on having no chance to win RG? (cmon, let's be real) Based on the global pandemics which already took away W from him?

When you say 20-17, trailing -3 doesn't sound so huge to overcome, but realistically it is huge, especially in current circumstances. Just remember how difficult was for Djokovic to win 1 at his own court. Before that he was saving 40-15. And now he needs at least 4 more to take the lead. Lot of slam winners can only dream about winning 4 in their whole careers.

I'm not saying that Novak taking the slam record is impossible, I'm just saying that it's objectively very difficult. But many people seem to think that it can almost easily happen. Why is that? Is it because of the recency bias, is it because tarding by tards and jinxing by haters got mixed up together, or is it because of something else?
 

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I gotta say, this is a well written post. Not something I’m used to seeing from you lol but well done mate. Nonetheless, Novak may very well break the slam record or he may not, same goes for Nadal. Both have a chance but we’ll see if they manage to pull it off.
 

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I don't understand the point of this thread? Of course winning any slam isn't easy; however, Novak has won five of the last seven slams. In 2015/2016, he won five of six. What people also don't understand is that he doesn't even need to dominate to break the slam record. If/when he wins USO this year, all he would need is one slam per year until 2023 to pass Federer in slams. Obviously, I believe he will do much better than that, but the point is that he doesn't need to dominate at all to get there.
 

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I don't understand the point of this thread? Of course winning any slam isn't easy; however, Novak has won five of the last seven slams. In 2015/2016, he won five of six. What people also don't understand is that he doesn't even need to dominate to break the slam record. If/when he wins USO this year, all he would need is one slam per year until 2023 to pass Federer in slams. Obviously, I believe he will do much better than that, but the point is that he doesn't need to dominate at all to get there.
1. It's not enough just to look at the numbers. Look at tendencies - from the last 3 slams he barely won each of the 2, and he got injured at the USO. And he isn't getting any younger, while Thiem is getting better.

2. Considering tendencies, it's NOT easy to win even a single slam per year for the next 3 years, so it's not easy to pass Fed

3. What about passing Nadal, who is ahead by 2 and who wins a slam every single year?

4. Pandemics already took 1 W away from Novak. Are we sure that it won't take more?
 

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I wouldn't say he barely won AO. Thiem didn't break Novak in the last two sets after Novak recovered from dehydration. How is that barely winning? He was never threatened much and he very nearly had a double break lead in the last set. OK..at Wimbledon 2019, maybe; however, he was also playing that match without a return or a serve. If he can win at his worst, we all know what would have happened if he played average or anywhere near his best.

Winning is also still winning. It doesn't matter how it happens.

Anyway, only a fool would doubt Novak. I will let Novak do all the talking. ;)
 

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Discussion Starter #8
Enlightening and analytical post... Which made me wonder - is bhdtl really an overenthusiastic and overoptimistic Djokotard, or is he actually a Djokohater in disguise who's mission is to jinx Novak and give decent Novak fans a bad name?
 

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Djokovic has a lot of pressure to win USO 2020. If he does not, all of this goes up in smoke
 

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Djokovic has a lot of pressure to win USO 2020. If he does not, all of this goes up in smoke
I wouldn't say that. Big 2 and even Federer have shown us that they are never to be written off regardless of the age.
 

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I'm definitely real; you, however, aren't. Anyway, bye. I now know not to respond to you. ;)
Your "Novak walks on water" posts definitely won't be missed.
 

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I wouldn't say that. Big 2 and even Federer have shown us that they are never to be written off regardless of the age.
Written off, no

However, once you let Thiem or someone else win one, the sharks sense blood in the water and it becomes even harder. Winning now is always easier than winning later
 

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Written off, no

However, once you let Thiem or someone else win one, the sharks sense blood in the water and it becomes even harder. Winning now is always easier than winning later
Yes, it would definitely be less hard for Novak if he wins this USO. But if he doesn't, it will be harder, but still not impossible.
 

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Nothing is given, especially during the Corona crisis.

Nadal will be the first to equal Federer's 20 or 21 if needed (90+ % chance IMO) because of RG, and also because of his HC cakewalks.

Novak's odds are about 50% IMO.
 

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Djokovic fans almost sound like Novak winning 10 more slams is a given fact. Some other tennis fans consider that Djokovic is very likely to get the slam record. And the rest of the tennis fans don't deny that Djokovic is close to almost easily become the computer GOAT.

All of that based on what? Based on Djokovic needing plan B on his own slam to barely beat Thiem in 5 sets? Based on Thiem and some other young players getting better and better while Djokovic is gradually declining physically? Based on having no chance to win RG? (cmon, let's be real) Based on the global pandemics which already took away W from him?

When you say 20-17, trailing -3 doesn't sound so huge to overcome, but realistically it is huge, especially in current circumstances. Just remember how difficult was for Djokovic to win 1 at his own court. Before that he was saving 40-15. And now he needs at least 4 more to take the lead. Lot of slam winners can only dream about winning 4 in their whole careers.

I'm not saying that Novak taking the slam record is impossible, I'm just saying that it's objectively very difficult. But many people seem to think that it can almost easily happen. Why is that? Is it because of the recency bias, is it because tarding by tards and jinxing by haters got mixed up together, or is it because of something else?
No idea, I am not.

He barely won Wimbledon and Australian Open. I do not pretend as this did not happen. I saw it with my eyes how Djokovic was struggling a lot.

WIM 2018 tough match - barely won
USO 2018 convincing but no Nadal/Thiem threat
AO 2019 very convincing post R16
WIM 2019 one point from losing
AO 2020 medium, barely won the final

All of that does not sound like he is going to win for sure 4+ majors in the next two years. People forget how hard that is.
But the good part is to keep winning is always good for the mindset. You feel superior, focused and relaxed a bit during tough moments than your inexperienced or insecure opponent. That winning drive is a very good thing which Djokovic had on different occasions but if he loses that, oh he can fall in a slump quickly.

I do not expect a prime Djokovic anymore. Not over two weeks and not during a full best of five match which lasts more than three sets. He will have ups-and-downs. He has them in particular when he is serving. You see very quickly that his confidence is gone when his serves drops and he loses his confidence by losing long rallyes because he can not hit through his opponent anymore or draw errors from him as he loves to do with a good defense.

There is definitely no guarantee as soon as his opponents step their game up that he will win another major. What he can benefit from is for sure a very good draw and facing opponents who struggle with their form and are inconsistent. Then he might come ahead and vultures additional 1-3 majors like that. That is quite possible only if Djokovic maintains his average solide level of play and health - stays major injury-free. Against most opponents his return, serve and less errors from the baseline are enough to win a slam match. That is indeed an advantage for Djokovic to get the record.

Sadly I am very concerned about his shoulder, wrist and whatever might come (back). He will be injured again at some time point and this might be it, no comeback or a very bad one and no major title anymore or only one like Sampras. That's it. 17-18 majors. At least in theory we all know that he would have gotten above 20 if not for his injuries. That is what we can keep in mind and I am extremely thankful that he came back after 2016. That was the most important and enjoyable thing. I was so happy and I do not demand after that but enjoy it with passion whatever comes. This is just a bonus. There will not be many players who will achieve a career like he had. The full package.
 
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Your "Novak walks on water" posts definitely won't be missed.
I do not take Srdjan-level talk at all serious. What did his parents say after French Open 2016 ? His mother predicted a "Super Slam" that season. What happened ? Well not a bad second half but he failed for his standards. Injury and motivational crisis. And he is one of the greatest sportsmen in the history, hard worker in every department. But that proves how tough it is and lucky you need to be and how hard you need to work in every department to stay fit, in form, in shape and sharp mentally and physically. To always adapt and improve your game towards your abilities and your opponents and the environmental influences.
 

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Exaggerate much? Novak won five of the last seven slams. That's domination very similar to 2015/2016. He is also currently on a 21-match winning streak and had his best start to a season since 2015/2016. Novak fans have every right to be optimistic and confident. I really don't care if you disagree.
 

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You mentioned "on his own court".
The problem is, that it is not his own surface anymore, the one where he ruled on with certainty. It is Thiem-favourable GreenSet.

Therefore it will be definitely much tougher for Djokovic to dominate in Australian Open ever again if they keep that surface. If Thiem stays healthy and the other young guns like Zverev (he likes clay and greenset), they will win the Australian Open at some point without a doubt.

That means in the future, Djokovic's best tournament will be Wimbledon to get a GS title. Because the younger one's struggle there to learn and adapt to the surface. They have the serve but that is not enough.
Who knows we might see Djokovic winning two more Wimbledon's and one hardcourt or no hardcourt title anymore. He would end with 19/20. I can imagine that scenario. It is quite possible to happen like that, if he stays healthy.

We see: having lost Wimbledon this year, was the worst thing to happen to Djokovic in the first place. Federer was injured, I doubt that he would have won there and Nadal is questionable against Djokovic.

That is why the US Open 2020 is a must-win in my opinion. It is important to win as many titles at this age as possible as long as he is physically in a good shape and in a winning mode and none of the nextgen have won one. And to have a substitute for the Wimbledon loss this year.
 

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Exaggerate much? Novak won five of the last seven slams. That's domination very similar to 2015/2016. He is also currently on a 21-match winning streak and had his best start to a season since 2015/2016. Novak fans have every right to be optimistic and confident. I really don't care if you disagree.
What do you think about the following: "Djokovic needs more time to get into his top-form than Nadal for example who is much faster on his peak-level = used to having longer breaks."

In my opinion this is not wrong and rather correct. Djokovic needs few tournaments to gain his confidence and champion-level while Nadal can win a title immediately after a longer break. His peak form is right there.
That makes me insecure about Cincinnati. One of his opponents is able to peak the hell out of himself by serving like there is no tomorrow and Djokovic loses his mindset and gets vanished from the court in ironic laughter. I hate it when I see that in his face.
 
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