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Discussion Starter #1 (Edited)
Lindsay, Mary and Jenn are all 26, five years older than Serena.
So, I decided that any player older than 17 would basically have to deal with Serena for most of their careers.
So Safina, Kuznetsova and Widjaja are to me, part of the next generation of tennis players. Hence the gray
Most multi-Gs titlelists were at least top ten by the time they were 17, which bodes ill for Zvonareva.
Bold are my top players right now.

16 04-27-86 81 Safina
17 06-27-85 59 Kuznetsova
17 12-12-84 61 WIDJAJA

18 09-07-84 50 ZVONAREVA
19 04-12-83 05 Jelena
19 04-23-83 11 HANTUCHOVA
19 06-08-83 08 Kim
19 03-09-83 28 BEDANOVA
19 03-10-83 34 BOVINA
20 09-19-82 23 DANIILIDOU
20 06-01-82 07 Justine
21 06-07-81 35 KOURNIKOVA
21 07-08-81 12 MYSKINA
21 09-26-81 01 Serena
21 10-15-81 15 DEMENTIEVA
21 12-15-80 31 STEVENSON
22 09-30-80 10 Martina*
22 06-17-80 02 Venus
23 04-05-79 06 Amelie
23 04-13-79 38 SHAUGHNESSY
24 12-14-78 18 SCHNYDER
25 08-12-77 29 MAJOLI
25 01-18-77 82 Jidkova
26 08-13-76 20 PANOVA
26 07-16-76 19 SMASHNOVA
26 06-08-76 09 Lindsay
26 03-29-76 03 Jenn
26 02-18-76 13 RUBIN
26 12-15-75 49 PIERCE, MARY
28 12-02-73 04 Monica
30 04-27-72 14 FARINA ELIA



* Her birthday is in 4 days
 

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I still think that after Venus & Serena are gone, another girl we have NEVER heard of before will sweep aside the competition :eek:

Sorry none of the current youngsters really appeal to me in terms of the next dominant force in womens' tennis :eek:
 

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but most-multi GS titlelists were playing on the WTA when they were 14-15 yrs old.
Vera only started this yr (pro from this yr in effect)
 

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Discussion Starter #4
TheBoiledEgg - She may have turned pro late, but that doesn't change her age. Still, experience IS a factor. If she's not top 20 by the end of 2003, though, I have a feeling she won't ever be top ten.
 

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WIDJAJA is only 5 months younger than Vera and hasn't done much this year... if Vera is not in grey, so shouldn't be WIDJAJA
 

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Widjaja is 3 months younger not 5 ;)

there are other factors as well...... injury
look what happened to Lina and Nadia this yr :sad:

both would have been top 20 for sure.
 

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Volcana said:
If she's not top 20 by the end of 2003, though, I have a feeling she won't ever be top ten.
I know it's just your opinion, but really, that's just preposterous, tell that to people like Tauziat, Farina or Testud. Not being a top20 at 17 or a top10 at 18 doesn't mean a thing. Statistics explain the past, but do NOT predict the future.

I wish they did though... if I could use statistics to predict the future, I'd be rich! :D
 

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Discussion Starter #10
Gallofa - It may be preposterous, but the odds favor me. Most players don't ever get into the top ten, so saying a player who hasn't ever done it won't isn't saying much. And saying a 19 year old who's never been top 20 won't ever be top ten is playing with house money. If I had said, 'the odds favor' instead of 'I have a feeling', I'd have been factually correct.

Most players don't ever get into the top ten.

Vera probaly won't.
Angelique probably won't.
Dinara probably won't.

Most player's don't. Most players,m whatever their age, won't ever be top ten.
 

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Nice info Volcana!

That 26th year was a BIG Tennis year. Things would be SO different with out it! Missing Mary, Chanda, Jenn & Lindsay makes a HUGE gap. I think it's pretty neat now, every year we are getting many VERY good top 10 GS winning talent players, where as before it seemed like it was just every couple years. :)

As far ar Vera goes, the age restriction rules have changed everything. Martina, Venus, Serena & Anna were not effected by it. All the girls coming up now, can't play as much as they want until they're 18. That makes it VERY hard to have a top ten ranking before you're 18+

For example, with no age rule, Dinara could have played 17 tournaments last year & played 17 this year, plus some when she was 14. Experience alone from that would give her a GREAT chance to be top ten at seventeen. She won't even be 17 for months! I'm not trying to say the rule is bad, just that comparing players over 20 to players under 20 is SO not fair with the new rules.
 

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Discussion Starter #13
Freefall - in one way, you're right, but the AER actually help us winnow OUT players who won't be elite players. Venus and Serena both made the top ten by 17 without coming close to 17 tournaments. Martina Hingis played more, but she could have played 15 tournaments a year and she still woul have been #1. She basically won everything she entered in 1997.

Any player who makes the top ten before 18, with the AER in place is pretty surely a truly elite player, a future GS winner, not just a 'come close'.

Venus and Serena would have been unaffected by the AER at any rate, cause tbey didn't play that often, and Martina didn't need the extra play. It IS doable, and I'll bet in the next five years we see some 17 year old in the top ten.

Who? There's the question.
 

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Volcana said:
Gallofa - It may be preposterous, but the odds favor me. Most players don't ever get into the top ten, so saying a player who hasn't ever done it won't isn't saying much. And saying a 19 year old who's never been top 20 won't ever be top ten is playing with house money. If I had said, 'the odds favor' instead of 'I have a feeling', I'd have been factually correct.

Most players don't ever get into the top ten.

Vera probaly won't.
Angelique probably won't.
Dinara probably won't.

Most player's don't. Most players,m whatever their age, won't ever be top ten.
The odds favor you because pre Venus/Serena, there were no age eligibility rules. Anyway, in 4 years Jenn, Lindsay, Mary, and Chanda Rubin will retire (like it or not). So which players do YOU see filling the void of the top ten? Your theory is complete BS
 

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Discussion Starter #15
mboyle1988 - My theory is 'most players don't make the top ten'. You say that's 'complete BS'. Okay, let's all agree you're right. So, according to your refutation of my thoery, most players DO make the top ten.

The WTA ranks about 1000 players. So since you're right, at least 501 out of those 100 players will make the top ten.

Sharp thinking. Keep it up.
 

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Freefall, you need to compare Vera to other players who have played under the AER. Kim was ranked 7th in the world a couple days after her 18th birthday, Jelena was was top 10 only a few months after hers.

If Vera wants in the top 10, all she has to do is wait out Monica, Jen, Lindsay, and maybe Mary Pierce as well. That leaves 2 Williams in the top 10, Martina, Amelie, Kim, Jelena, Justine. Thats 7 of the current top 10. We are talking about 4 years from now, so who not currently in the top 10 will she have to compete with? Hantuchova, Safina, and Sharapova (19 years old) for starters. And that is just barely for starters. Getting in the top 10 is HARD. Elena Dementieva back when she was the hottest up and comer on tour spent a few weeks there. Silvia Farina never made it in her career. Lisa Raymond couldn't top 15th.
 

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Most players won't get into the top 10, that's right, if we consider that there are over 1,200 players in the WTA rankings, that that's without taking into account that at the bottom of the list, names change constantly.

We could also say that most players will never get into the top 100, and even the top 300.

But that's a very wide generalization, if we are talking about Zvonareva, Safina or Sharapova it's because there is a reason for that.

We are not speculating about randomly choosen players, but players that have showed signs they can get to the top.

Dinara Safina has already won a tournament, I would say the odds are that a player that wins a title that early will probably make it to the top 10, of course it isn't guaranteed, but it's likely.

I don't think there is a time frame, specially not with that ridiculous aer. Some players peaked really late: Testud, Tauziat, Farina, Van Roost.

I think that you can't judge a player's ability by looking number, you actually have to know how she plays, and know what's behind her wins or losses.

Sure, you can apply percentages, but I think then you should talk about that in an statistics message board, not a tennis message board.
 

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To narrow it down more, most top 100 players won't make the top 10. There have been about 75 top 10 players in the past 27 years. 10 of those were from the first week, so there were 65 new ones. That's 2.5 per year, which is 25 new top 10's in the course of an average 10 year career. Assume all those players come from the current 11-100 group, that's 25 out of 90.

I don't think we've even had a new top 10 player this year, the whole year. As a matter of fact, I believe Dokic was the most recent, which has to be 15 or 16 months ago. Sure, Hantuchova will likely be there within a month, but that's one player. It's HARD. If I was to bet on one of the afforementioned group, I'd say Safina.
 
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