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At the moment, you might think Stan Wawrinka would have a great chance of being seeded No 3 – the same as his overall ranking right now. But the Swiss has more than 1,000 points to defend on clay and then, importantly, gets very little in terms of a grass-court boost through the formula.

This will change a bit, of course, and someone like Wawrinka could easily boost his points before the end of Roland Garros, but if we take the rankings as of this week, Monday April 21, here’s what would happen if the seedings were done today, with the grass-court formula applied.

1. Rafael Nadal: 13,353.75 (inc. 43.75 grass-court points)
2. Novak Djokovic: 12,780 (inc 1740)
3. Roger Federer: 7,600 (inc 1795)
4. Andy Murray: 7,190 (inc 3,150)
5. Stanislas Wawrinka: 6,747.5 (inc 167.5)
6. David Ferrer: 5,540 (inc 630)
7. Tomas Berdych 5,168.75 (inc 408.75)
8. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 3,045 (inc 675)

As always, the rankings will move around a little in the next six weeks as the clay-court season evolves, and then Wimbledon will release its seedings, something always looked at as crucial by the top players, no matter utterings they might make in public.

And they know better than anyone that since Wimbledon is the only grand slam that deviates from the ATP rankings using a grass-court formula, things can look a lot worse in April than they will the week before Wimbledon when the seedings are released.

That might explain why Andy Murray was not overly bothered when asked recently whether his slide down the rankings to No 8 will affect his chances of retaining his title at Wimbledon this summer. Here’s why.

Wimbledon’s seeding formula, for the men, takes a player’s entry ranking points on the Monday before Wimbledon, in this case June 16, and then adds 100 percent of their points in all grass-court events in the past 12 months, as well as 75 percent of their best grass-court event from the 12 months before that.

So, though Murray has 250 points to defend at Queen’s Club in the Aegon Championships, the last week of points before the seeds are calculated, he has a pretty good chance of remaining in the top four, thus avoiding the nightmare of potentially having to play three of the top four to win the title.

He will probably tell you it doesn’t matter, but it can only help his chances of retaining the title, not least since only one man (Goran Ivanisevic) has won the title since 1992 from outside of the top four seeds.

http://www.thetennisspace.com/murray-set-for-top-four-seeding-at-wimbledon/
 

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At the moment, you might think Stan Wawrinka would have a great chance of being seeded No 3 – the same as his overall ranking right now. But the Swiss has more than 1,000 points to defend on clay and then, importantly, gets very little in terms of a grass-court boost through the formula.

This will change a bit, of course, and someone like Wawrinka could easily boost his points before the end of Roland Garros, but if we take the rankings as of this week, Monday April 21, here’s what would happen if the seedings were done today, with the grass-court formula applied.

1. Rafael Nadal: 13,353.75 (inc. 43.75 grass-court points)
2. Novak Djokovic: 12,780 (inc 1740)
3. Roger Federer: 7,600 (inc 1795)
4. Andy Murray: 7,190 (inc 3,150)
5. Stanislas Wawrinka: 6,747.5 (inc 167.5)
6. David Ferrer: 5,540 (inc 630)
7. Tomas Berdych 5,168.75 (inc 408.75)
8. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 3,045 (inc 675)

As always, the rankings will move around a little in the next six weeks as the clay-court season evolves, and then Wimbledon will release its seedings, something always looked at as crucial by the top players, no matter utterings they might make in public.

And they know better than anyone that since Wimbledon is the only grand slam that deviates from the ATP rankings using a grass-court formula, things can look a lot worse in April than they will the week before Wimbledon when the seedings are released.

That might explain why Andy Murray was not overly bothered when asked recently whether his slide down the rankings to No 8 will affect his chances of retaining his title at Wimbledon this summer. Here’s why.

Wimbledon’s seeding formula, for the men, takes a player’s entry ranking points on the Monday before Wimbledon, in this case June 16, and then adds 100 percent of their points in all grass-court events in the past 12 months, as well as 75 percent of their best grass-court event from the 12 months before that.

So, though Murray has 250 points to defend at Queen’s Club in the Aegon Championships, the last week of points before the seeds are calculated, he has a pretty good chance of remaining in the top four, thus avoiding the nightmare of potentially having to play three of the top four to win the title.

He will probably tell you it doesn’t matter, but it can only help his chances of retaining the title, not least since only one man (Goran Ivanisevic) has won the title since 1992 from outside of the top four seeds.

http://www.thetennisspace.com/murray-set-for-top-four-seeding-at-wimbledon/
Draws don't usually work out that neatly anyway. If he's seeded fourth he avoids the risk but not necessarily the likelihood that the above scenario plays out.
 

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Regarding the final paragraph, wasn't Krajicek something like the 17th seed when he won Wimbledon. But overall yes I do agree for Murray to defend his title he must be in the top 4 seeds.
 

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Draws don't usually work out that neatly anyway. If he's seeded fourth he avoids the risk but not necessarily the likelihood that the above scenario plays out.
Yeah, we all know how Mugray won his last slam. :facepalm: Mugdasco and Jerkowicz choking.
 

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It would be scandalous if he wasn't a top 4 seed! Although when you consider the fact he has basically 0 points to defend on clay it is very hard to see him not being seeded in the top 3.
 

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nadal reeling in the grass court points
 

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Grassray 3.0 will rise. You just wait and see.
 

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Hopefully Stan takes over Mugrays 4th seed
The lead-up to the draw would be hilariously nervewracking for all fans of the top 4 seeds, lol. Kinda like when Rafa wasn't a top 4 seed for Madrid and Rome last year. Who's going to draw the short straw? Who who WHO?

(Not comparing Andy-on-grass to Rafa-on-clay, but Andy's pretty decent at it, lol.)
 

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I am not sure why Stan can't be seeded 3. He's just scored a masters 1000 so he's very unlikely to fret too much about his fianl appearance in Madrid last year or have I got things twisted? He's in Estoril next week but since the tournament time was shifted to later in the year it's unlikely to matter much in his ranking if I am not wrong. Can someone clarify those points for me? Does estoril matter at this point? Does Monte Carlo supersede Madrid?
 

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If that happens all the Murray-haters are going to get so mad and be 'Wimbledon fixing it for the home player' even though they've applied the formula for ages now.
 

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Murray is defending QF in Madrid, 3R in Rome and DNP at the French open


But we know he has the clay game to be in the semi finals of Rolland garros
 

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The important thing for Murray is avoiding Nadal, he just doesn't match up well against him...
 

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Well I hope Murray stays n4 for Wimbledon, because Wawrinka is a colossal mug on grass!

I like this system Wimbledon is using. Grass is indeed so different that it warrants another ranking system.
 

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~♥ Magnus Norman ♥~
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Well I hope Murray stays n4 for Wimbledon, because Wawrinka is a colossal mug on grass!
Well, he did reach a final last year on grass, and was unlucky enough to draw Hewitt 1R at Wimbledon ... but mostly I agree, it's not Stan's best surface at all.
 
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