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Discussion Starter #1
Top 5 Favorites:

1- (a) Djokovic
1- (b) Nadal
3- Thiem
4- Tsitsipas
5- Federer

Top 5 Outsiders:

1- Medvedev (his dud of a season-end was alarming as far as I'm concerned.)
2- Wawrinka (one last Stanimal run can never be ruled out)
3- Dimitrov (he does well Down Under)
4- Zverev (he rises when you least expect him to do. I expect a better 2020 from Sascha. He gotta feel more urgency now that his peers are closing on his achievements).
5- Murray (transcending odds)
 

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1. Djokovic
2. Nadal
3. Medvedev
4. Federer
5. Tsitsipas

Outsiders? Not sure what that means, but I'll continue the list:

1. Thiem
2. Zverev
3. Murray
4. Del Potro
5. Kyrgios
 

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Favourites
Djokovic
Tsitsipas
Nadal


Outsiders
Federer
Zverev
Murray
Medvedev
Thiem
 

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The special one
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1. Djokovic - Still favourite and will be the man to beat at his favourite slam

2. Nadal - Very consistent in the slams the last few years, 7 consecutive SFs and counting, it wouldn't shock me at all if he ties the slam record here.

3. Medvedev - Went a little off the boil towards the end of the year, but I put that down to a long season catching up with him, we can't ignore the 6 consecutive finals before that, which includes 2 masters and a USO final. He should be refreshed and is dangerous on HC.

4. Federer

5. Thiem

I'm a bit cautious about ranking Tsitsipas's chances given what happened to the last 2 WTF winners, although he has SF points to defend.

Outsiders

No particular order really, I'll put Tsitsipas in here. Also Zverev, Shapovalov, Kyrgios, Murray, Tsonga, Wawrinka, delpo, kei.

Damn that's 9 lol, but the field is pretty deep I can see up to a dozen players potentially make a SF.
 

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Favorites
1. Djokovic
2. Nadal
3. Federer
4. Medvedev
5. Tsitsipas

Outsiders
1. Thiem
2. Berrettini
3. Wawrinka
4. Shapovalov
5. Bautista Agut

Outside of Thiem, I don’t really expect the outsiders to make it that far but those were the people I thought had the best chance of doing damage.
 

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Current Odds:

1. Djokovic- 2.76
2. Nadal- 5.2
3. Medvedev- 9.4
4. Federer- 9.6
5. Tsitsipas- 12.5
6. Thiem- 14
7. Zverev- 19
8. Murray- 32

Top 8 favorites currently
 

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Favourites:
1) Djoker
2) Nadal
3) Federer
4) Medvedev
5) Tsitsipas

Outsiders:
1) Wawrinka
2) Kyrgios * If someone could get this guy to care for 2 weeks... Watch out!! *
3) Murray
4) Bautista Agut
5) Dimitrov
 

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  • Favourite: Djokovic
  • Co-Favourites (no particular order): Federer, Nadal, Thiem, Medvedev, Tsitsipas
  • dark horse: Shapovalov, Sinner, Khachanov
 

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Just found out Greenset court supplier for AO resurfacing owned by former Spanish player Javier Sanchez-Vicario & comments from article claim company's courts as "a history of being painfully slow" so.......one could suspect El padrino in the mix as usual but hopefully still not on the USO Blue Clay level.
 

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I dont care what slamless nextgen prodigies do at WTF or other tournaments, the favourites are still exactly the same for me (in no particular order):
Djokovic
Nadal
Federer
Wawrinka
 

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It is a bit soon to talk about the favorites, let's wait January and the ATP Cup, and we will have a better view. Some guys could get injured before the start of the AO. But of course, favorites will be the same as usual, certainly for a GS, so Djoko followed by Nadal and then guys like Tsitsipas and Medvedev I would say right now, but can change until a few days prior to the AO
 

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Just found out Greenset court supplier for AO resurfacing owned by former Spanish player Javier Sanchez-Vicario & comments from article claim company's courts as "a history of being painfully slow" so.......one could suspect El padrino in the mix as usual but hopefully still not on the USO Blue Clay level.
You still don't realize it. High bounce is the advantage for Rafa. US Open is not slow but has a very high bounce.
 

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Murray being overlooked by everyone. Love it. Happy for him to be the underdog and prove everyone wrong once again.
 

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I'm not going to list my favorites, let's just say I agree with the bookies, more or less. The outsiders are perhaps more interesting. From my point of view, players that occupy any of the higher spots in the bookie's list (let's say, with odds under 20-25), shouldn't really be called outsiders. Apart from the number-one favorite, these guys can be viewed as next-in-line favorites, or co-favorites, as Meddy Bär puts it.

To me, an outsider is still very much a surprise winner. I think of outsiders as players that it is worth keeping an extra eye on, for one reason or another, but not someone likely to hold the trophy. Some suggestions for outsiders:

Andy Murray: He will be highly motivated to work hard during the off-season. With a good draw and a few matches under his belt, his confidence will grow stronger and he might be dangerous once again.

Jannik Sinner: His level has increased tremendously in a short time, as can happen to players his age. If he puts in hard work during the off-season, this trend is likely to continue. His high power game and mental toughness make him a horrible draw in the first round. It is unlikely that he will hold up deep into the second week, but he is still an outsider worth mentioning.

Juan Del Potro. The Argentinian has never been at his best in AO, probably it is the heat that bothers him. Still, if he is healthy and ready to play, he is a bad draw for most of the top players. It is difficult to imagine him doing well for two weeks, but he might take out a big name along the way.

Kyrgios. The Australian has often been mentioned as a dark horse in his home slam, but his success has been limited. Still, if his serve is firing and the audience cheers him on, no top player would like to face him. Particularly if he goes up against any of the big three, there is little doubt he will be motivated.
 

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Curious to see what Dominic Thiem can do, he has underperformed in Melbourne.
  • vs. Rafa Nadal: less difficult than on clay (see their US Open encounter that he still lost but he has matured since)
  • vs. Novak Djokovic: not the favorite unlike on clay, but the Serb's recent form is concerning
  • vs. Roger Federer: just beat him, and in best of 5 sets it would favor the Austrian
Now the issue is Dominic lost to very inferior players in the past, wasn't always healthy. I hope he'll be at 100%. Also Stefanos Tsitsipas could be a threat, but if I had to bet on two underdogs it would be Dom + Stefanos.
 

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You still don't realize it. High bounce is the advantage for Rafa. US Open is not slow but has a very high bounce.
Whether i "realize" it is irrelevant but tourn. officials have & recently admitted to homogenization that's affected N. American HC swing, https://www.espn.in/tennis/story/_/id/24591149/us-open-tournament-director-says-courts-were-slowed-year
 
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