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Discussion Starter #1 (Edited)
This year's Wimbledon is very open. The most open slam of the year.

Murray: declined form. Worse serving than last year.
Djokovic: not a good grass player. confident issue after losing RG final.
Nadal: still have doubts over whether he can adapt to grass game and avoid early exits.
Wawrinka: out of form. did not have a good record on grass.
Federer: better form than last year after enlarging the contact surface of the racket and getting a new coach. In-form top10 Gulbis did barely enough to take Federer out on Federer's worst surface, proving how competitive Federer is.

I don't think the upset of last year is likely to happen again to Federer who struggled for the whole season last year. No one within the top 30 has a better grass court game than him as well. The only player he can't beat in Wimbledon is Nadal but it is questionable whether Nadal can make it to the semi or further for a possible matchup. He has more than 70% chance of winning over the rest of the field ( the only exception maybe Murray but still he probably has about 60% chance as opposed to Murray's 40%). So it is a very good chance for Federer to vulture another slam. I have a feeling he will win this year.

I'd put him as the favourite. Hope I will be proven wrong, though I predicted the result of RG final and the number of games Murray could win against Nadal in that semi correctly.
 

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I've always said I'd be shocked if Fed finished with 17
 

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Discussion Starter #3
I've always said I'd be shocked if Fed finished with 17
He can definitely vulture another one here. No one can beat him on Wimbledon except Nadal who may exit early.
 

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Discussion Starter #4
I'll bump this thread after Wimbledon, unwillingly.
 

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Should have just kept this in my prediction thread.

Whilst I feel some of the reasons you've dismissed the other guys are very shallow, I agree that he comes in here with nobody really firing on all cylinders on any quick surfaces.
 

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Discussion Starter #6
Should have just kept this in my prediction thread.

Whilst I feel some of the reasons you've dismissed the other guys are very shallow, I agree that he comes in here with nobody really firing on all cylinders on any quick surfaces.
I am not saying Federer will win, unlike my prediction that Rafa would win RG. I only say he is likely to win or can once again vulture a slam by avoiding Nadal. Confusingly enough, I also think Nadal is likely to win, because he has no real opponent after coming through the first week. It is equally true no one in the top30 can beat him there, so do Federer with the exception of Nadal.
 

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Discussion Starter #7 (Edited)
I am the only legit speculator on MTF now, predicting that Nadal would beat Djokovic in 4 even before he humiliated Murray and that Murray would be humiliated by Nadal in a match last less than 1.45 hour. That's why I always tell people to "take my words"

see my early RG prediction before Rome:
http://www.menstennisforums.com/showthread.php?t=453866&highlight=

my prediction for the score of RG final, almost got it exactly right:
http://www.menstennisforums.com/showthread.php?p=22945569&highlight=#post22945569
 

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Just curious. If we assume that Nadal goes out early and Federer beats Murray and Djokovic to the title like in 2012 would you say he vultured the slam? If so how is that any different than if Nadal wins by beating Federer and say Djokovic? Wouldn't he have vultured the slam aswell then?
 

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Discussion Starter #9
Just curious. If we assume that Nadal goes out early and Federer beats Murray and Djokovic to the title like in 2012 would you say he vultured the slam? If so how is that any different than if Nadal wins by beating Federer and say Djokovic? Wouldn't he have vultured the slam aswell then?
If you fail to beat the toughest opponent for most of your slam wins, you are vulturing.
It is similar to the case of Sharapova who now wins slam only by avoiding Williams
 

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Already thought WImby 2012 was his last, but in current conditions yes this could be his last, Murray is not as good as last year, Novak is consistent, but Roger can beat him at Wimbledon, Nadal is non-factor, Berdych is probably last player he want to play at Wimby
 

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Discussion Starter #12
Nope. No Wimbledom for Fed in '14. Novak, Andy & Rafa in that order.
Don't take my golden advice? Forget the lesson so quickly?

My formula is not easy to be understood. Test your intelligence!
Federer > Murray >>> Djokovic > Wawrinka >early exit Nadal
Second week Nadal >>> Federer > Murray >>> Djokovic > Wawrinka
 

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If you fail to beat the toughest opponent for most of your slam wins, you are vulturing.
It is similar to the case of Sharapova who now wins slam only by avoiding Williams
Define the toughest opponent. If Nadal once again fail to go into the 2nd week he can hardly be defined as the toughest opponent at Wimbledon.
 

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He has a good chance. WImbledon 2014 is the first slam in a long time where I don't think I know who is going to win. There are question marks about all the top guys.
 

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Discussion Starter #15
Define the toughest opponent. If Nadal once again fail to go into the 2nd week he can hardly be defined as the toughest opponent at Wimbledon.
He has the second most no. of slams behind Fed, most wimbledon titles outside Fed among active players. Not toughest still?
 

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Discussion Starter #16 (Edited)
He has a good chance. WImbledon 2014 is the first slam in a long time where I don't think I know who is going to win. There are question marks about all the top guys.
Check out my "linear equation"! Can you find the intersection point?
Federer > Murray >>> Djokovic > Wawrinka >early exit Nadal
Second week Nadal >>> Federer > Murray >>> Djokovic > Wawrinka
 

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He has the second most no. of slams behind Fed, most wimbledon titles outside Fed among active players. Not toughest still?
Total number of slams hardly matters if he goes out in R1 or R2 for the third time in a row. Sampras was never the favorite to win FO or the toughest player to beat at that slam even if he was the one with most slams of the current players at the time. Besides recent form matters more than the form Nadal had years ago. If he loses early a 3rd time that is more indicative of his skills on grass now than his wins in 2010 and 2008.
 

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Discussion Starter #18
Total number of slams hardly matters if he goes out in R1 or R2 for the third time in a row. Sampras was never the favorite to win FO or the toughest player to beat at that slam even if he was the one with most slams of the current players at the time. Besides recent form matters more than the form he had years ago. If he loses early a 3rd time that is more indicative of his skills on grass now than his wins in 2010 and 2008.
Going out in R1/2 was just accident for Rafa.
 

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