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Discussion Starter #421
14 Wawrinka vs Tsonga: Total sets = 5 @ 3.60 (5 units to win 13 units)

The first of three very interesting and tricky to call quarter-finals - surprisingly this will be the pair's first meeting off clay since 2007, with the overall score at 4-3 to Wawrinka. Also surprisingly, not a single one of their encounters has been straight-sets, there's very little to separate them on the day. This'll be another day-match, which just edges in favour of Tsonga for me - he will be relying heavily on cheap points and conditions should suit in that regard. Wawrinka has of course won a lot more big matches in recent years than his opponent here, and that's often where these sorts of matches are won, in the head and I think the match-odds are just about right with Stan a slight favourite, but it has all the tools to be a seesaw match at the same time, given what's at stake for both players. Both have the ability to dial-in for periods in the match but also switch off, and that will give this bet a decent chance.

Good luck.
 

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Discussion Starter #422
14 Wawrinka vs Tsonga: Total sets = 5 @ 3.60 = LOSS

2017 Record: 4-10 (-33.38 units)

Tsonga simply bullied when it came to the big points, which isn't a great surprise.
 

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Discussion Starter #423
15 Raonic to beat Nadal @ 2.20 (6 units to win 7.2 units)

As tends to be the case, the 'Nadal is back' bandwagon is rolling hard after he's beating a few non-contenders. Without Zverev's cramps, he'd almost certainly have been dumped out in R3 and even a mental fuckwit like Monfils was on the verge of a comeback against him before his brain went. Raonic won't cramp and isn't a mental fuckwit, he's not number-three in the world for no reason of course and isn't a stranger at this stage of a slam either. Again, he'll have to serve well and being broken 6 times in total against Simon/Bautista is a little black mark against him but he did finish strongly in those matches and offsets the odd poor service-game by adopting a much more aggressive return-stance and he'll have plenty of short balls to go at from Nadal. Just two meetings in almost 2 years between the pair; Nadal unsurprisingly dominated the early encounters but Raonic has 2 of the last 3 including a very recent win in Brisbane, and the way the draw has fallen apart, it does feel somewhat that it's coming into place for him to take his first major title this weekend. Nadal has taken losses to the likes of Troicki, Pouille, Coric and Dimitrov in recent months, a win against Raonic would be outside of the recent downward-pattern that his career on this surface has taken, so backing Raonic against the odds here looks the play.

Good luck.
 

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Discussion Starter #424
15 Raonic to beat Nadal @ 2.20 = LOSS

2017 Record: 4-11 (-39.38 units)

6 set-points, this ain't a great run of luck right now...
 

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Discussion Starter #425
16 Nadal to beat Federer @ 1.80 (5 units to win 4 units)

The year is 2009. The weather is dank, a new President has entered the White House and second-seed Serena Williams is in the Australian Open final. On the men's side, Djokovic has exited earlier than expected on a hot summer's day, Murray is outplayed in the fourth-round and coming into the semi-finals, all the excitement is about "can we see another Federer Nadal final?!". Federer, returning to the tour after injury problems at the end of the previous season, has cruised into the final beating one of his long-time bunnies in the semis. Nadal, who suffered a disappointing quarter-final exit in the build-up tournament the first week of the season, is in a barnstorming semi-final against a 25 year-old opponent playing the match of his life. He edges through 6-4 in the fifth but it's the Friday night semi-final and it's finished late, late into the evening, he's going to need to rely on all his fitness and strength in order to overcome a well-rested Federer in Sunday's final.....
 

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Discussion Starter #426
16 Nadal to beat Federer @ 1.80 = LOSS

2017 Record: 4-12 (-44.38 units)

Lightning does not strike twice afterall!
 

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Discussion Starter #427
17 Australia x Great Britain x Italy (all to win their DC ties) @ 2.15 (5 units to win 5.75 units)

Another DC World Group R1 where we're left with a bunch of short-priced favs who all look like they should convincingly come through, so it's to be three picks here whose prices combined add up to a decent looking bet. Australia are at home and are building a team which is very capable of winning this event in the next few years - Kyrgios, along with in-form Thompson lead their singles against a Berdych-less Czech Republic and, despite Stepanek's presence for the doubles and a potential day-three singles appearance, their team lacks the necessary experience especially on grass to trouble this Australian team. Great Britain are obviously without Andy Murray this week but are still able to pick a strong team - Edmund/Evans have picked up a few wins already this year and have gained the necessary experience at DC in the last few years to be able to cope with this weak Canadian team who are without Raonic. Finally the Argentines host Italy without Del Potro and have decided to not play Schwartzman on day-one, which surprises me a little. Fognini and Lorenzi should pick up a 2-0 lead and that ought to be enough to see that one home.

Good luck.
 

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Discussion Starter #428
18 Halys to beat Karatsev @ 1.74 (3 units to win 2.22 units)

Good luck.
 

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Discussion Starter #429
19 Shapovalov vs Evans: Over 36.5 games @ 1.83 (3 units to win 2.49 units)

This pair played out 33 games in their only previous meeting in BO3 last year and in BO5 here, there's every chance this could go long again. Evans is obviously the player in better form at the moment but a bit of fatigue at this stage wouldn't be a surprise and Shapovalov has the firepower to at least keep this tight and nervy for the Brit in front of what i'm sure will be a raucous crowd in Ottawa.

Good luck.
 

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Discussion Starter #430 (Edited)
18 Halys to beat Karatsev @ 1.74 = WIN
19 Shapovalov vs Evans: Over 36.5 games @ 1.83 = LOSS

2017 Record: 5-13 (-45.26 units)

Pending tomorrow:

17 Australia x Great Britain x Italy (all to win their DC ties) @ 2.15 (5 units to win 5.75 units)
 

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Discussion Starter #431
20 Halys to beat Mannarino @ 3.0 (3 units to win 6 units)

Good luck.
 

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Discussion Starter #432 (Edited)
17 Australia x Great Britain x Italy (all to win their DC ties) @ 2.15
20 Halys to beat Mannarino @ 3.0

WIN/LOSS

2017 Record: 6-14 (-42.51 units)

Never doubted you for a second Fabio.
 

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Discussion Starter #433
Alright let's try and win some money back after a testing year so far:

21 Bedene to beat Coric @ 2.66 (4 units to win 6.56 units)

Not exactly a match-up between the tour's most in-form players here, both recently came back from injury problems, but Coric's comeback would worry me more - two defeats to Chung and Dolgopolov in R1 this year along with the fact he couldn't be part of the Croatian Davis Cup squad suggest he's not ready to compete properly at this level yet. Bedene did manage to pick up a couple of wins in Chennai and he does have enough power on serve/forehand to run Coric around and keep him penned back here, so the match should be on his racket.

22 Barrere to win at least a set vs Verdasco @ 2.50 (6 units to win 9 units)

Very much siding against Verdasco here, not enough to go for the outright win but I feel this bet offers value. The Spaniard has taken early tournament losses to the likes of Carreno, Ymer and Lajovic on hardcourts in the last few months - and in 11 of his last 14 R1 matches he has dropped a set. Barrere is not at the standard of most of his opponents but he's at home, had a couple of matches in qualifying to get used to the surface and has nothing to lose here, perfectly capable of adding his name to that list.

23 Dutra Silva to beat Carballes Baena @ 1.77 (5 units to win 3.85 units)

Going with the experienced journeyman in this one. Dutra even managing to win a couple of hardcourt matches this season is a good sign for him, he's a much better claycourter and enjoyed a very good season on the Challenger claycourts in 2016, reaching a few finals along the way. Hard to read a lot into RCB's qualifying wins, beating Molteni who's beyond 700 in the world and scraping past Sarkissian from a set and a break down. For me, Dutra is in a different league here.

Good luck.
 

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Discussion Starter #434
21 Bedene to beat Coric @ 2.66 = WIN
22 Barrere to win at least a set vs Verdasco @ 2.50 = LOSS
23 Dutra Silva to beat Carballes Baena @ 1.77 = LOSS

2017 Record: 7-16 (-46.95 units)
 

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Discussion Starter #435
24 Brown to beat Cilic @ 5.0 (4 units to win 16 units)

Good luck.
 

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Discussion Starter #436
24 Brown to beat Cilic @ 5.0 = WIN

2017 Record: 8-16 (-30.95 units)

Knew I could rely on the Rastaman to put me on the right track.
 

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Discussion Starter #437
25 Brown to beat Paire @ 2.37 (10 units to win 13.7 units)

Good luck.
 

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Discussion Starter #438
25 Brown to beat Paire @ 2.37 = VOID

2017 Record: 8-16-1 (-30.95 units)

Shame that, would have shaped up to be a decent match.
 

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Discussion Starter #439
26 Dimitrov vs M Zverev: Over 22.5 games @ 2.10 (3 units to win 3.3 units)

Hopefully Dimi has been partying hard in Sofia the last couple of days and it takes him a while to wake up here.

Good luck.
 

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Discussion Starter #440
26 Dimitrov vs M Zverev: Over 22.5 games @ 2.10 = WIN

2017 Record: 9-16-1 (-27.65 units)
 
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