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Source:http://bettingzone.oddschecker.com/bettingzone/mode:o.card:tennis-mensusopen.odds:488282x.sid:492098

Federer 3/4 57.1%

Nadal 22/5 18.5%

Roddick 23/2 8.0%

Hewitt 21/1 4.5%

Safin 22/1 4.3%

Agassi 47/1 2.1%

Federer appears as a huge favourite. To get an idea about how high is a probability of 57% winning the U.S. Open, consider that he needs to go through 7 best of 5 set matches in a period of two weeks. For example, suppose that he has a probability of 95% winning each of his first 5 matches and a probability of 80% winning the semis and finals. Then, the probability of winning outright is (0.95)^5*(0.80)^2=49.5%.

Nadal is given significantly higher chances to emerge as the outright winner relative to Roddick and Hewitt.

Discuss.