[Merton]

It is one week before the U.S. Open starts, so i thought it would be interesting to see who may emerge as the winner of the U.S. Open. A natural place to start is looking at the winner-take-all markets. I took the odds given below from betfair.com. I also converted the odds to probabilities.
Source:http://bettingzone.oddschecker.com/bettingzone/mode:o.card:tennis-mensusopen.odds:488282x.sid:492098

Federer 3/4 57.1%
Nadal 22/5 18.5%
Roddick 23/2 8.0%
Hewitt 21/1 4.5%
Safin 22/1 4.3%
Agassi 47/1 2.1%

Federer appears as a huge favourite. To get an idea about how high is a probability of 57% winning the U.S. Open, consider that he needs to go through 7 best of 5 set matches in a period of two weeks. For example, suppose that he has a probability of 95% winning each of his first 5 matches and a probability of 80% winning the semis and finals. Then, the probability of winning outright is (0.95)^5*(0.80)^2=49.5%.

Nadal is given significantly higher chances to emerge as the outright winner relative to Roddick and Hewitt.

Discuss.

 

[NYCtennisfan]

The oddsmakers have made Federer a HUGE favorite. You don't often see players be under even-money pre-tourny unless of course your are federer or nadal this year. Hard to make money there...

 

[mitalidas]

these odds are very good to bet away from the favorites--the spoils on underdogs and darkhorses will be ENORMOUS

 

[Merton]

It is interesting to compare with odds given before the masters series in Montreal. See this thread:

http://www.menstennisforums.com/showthread.php?t=48736

So, Federer appeared an even bigger favourite before winning Cincy, with odds of 5-8 (probability 61.5%). Nadal improved from 6-1 (14.3%) to 22-5 (18.5%). Both changes appear natural.

PD: The earlier odds are from another house (Sports Betting.com) so we cannot compare directly.

 

[Merton]

It is also interesting to consider which of the summer North American hard court events winner ends up winning the U.S. Open. Here are the results:

AMS Canada: 7 (84, 87, 94, 98, 00, 03, 04)
AMS Cincy: 3 (88, 98, 03)
Indianapolis: 2 (96, 03)
Washington: 2 (87, 99)
Los Angeles: 0

 

[Deivid23]

these odds are very good to bet away from the favorites--the spoils on underdogs and darkhorses will be ENORMOUS

If Federer is in the lineup on a hc/grass tourney or Nadal is on a clay tourney -> Outright winner bets are useless

 

[Neely]

Even the outright odds of the Lakers to win the NBA Championship in 2002 have been better than Federer's :lol:

 

[Bilbo]

my money will be on federer. pretty sure money to be made though.

 

[Merton]

If Federer is in the lineup on a hc/grass tourney or Nadal is on a clay tourney -> Outright winner bets are useless

I think that the winner will be one of the 6 players mentioned in 1st post but it is normal that the markets will give quotes for other players. However, i am not looking at the odds from the perspective of a bettor. I am more interested on what are the average expectations of tennis followers after the hard court events.

 

[Merton]

my money will be on federer. pretty sure money to be made though.

Think of his match against Lopez in Wimbledon 2003, he was very close to abandoning the match due to back problems. Would you bet before taking a look at the draw?

 

[Bilbo]

Would you bet before taking a look at the draw?

I've done pretty good with Grand Slam outright bets. Even if I lose this bet it won't hurt me coz I'll make enough money during the US Open.

 

[pravda]

Rafael Nadal will win the 2005 US Open.

 

[uNIVERSE mAN]

This US Open will have a Federer-Roddick final or semi-final. What Nadal needs to have a shot at the final is for Roddick to be on the other side. High bounces don't affect Roddick because he doesn't take the ball early at all, it comes down to his hitting zone by the time he takes a cut at it.

 

[Merton]

This US Open will have a Federer-Roddick final or semi-final. What Nadal needs to have a shot at the final is for Roddick to be on the other side. High bounces don't affect Roddick because he doesn't take the ball early at all, it comes down to his hitting zone by the time he takes a cut at it.

If Andy stays far behind the baseline against Nadal he will lose.

 

[Bilbo]

This US Open will have a Federer-Roddick final or semi-final. What Nadal needs to have a shot at the final is for Roddick to be on the other side. High bounces don't affect Roddick because he doesn't take the ball early at all, it comes down to his hitting zone by the time he takes a cut at it.

Roddick will either lose to Hewitt or Nadal. The final will be: Federer vs. Nadal

 

[Mistaflava]

Nadal won't make the finals...

Roddick will pull out with a foot injury

Lleyton Hewitt will come close but lose focus

Roger Federer will win

 

[Havok]

I don't see Nadal holding his seed. If he makes it to at least the QF I would be shocked (though if he has a piss easy draw to make it there, I won't be as shocked ). Federer/Hewitt/Roddick (baring if his injury is 100% healed) should make it deep, then you can add players like an Agassi or a Davydenko/Safin to probably hold their seed. I think at this US Open many seeds will progress as far as they "should" given their seed #, and we'll have a handful of upsets along the way. This isnt Roand Garros where everyone dies by the 3rd/4th round.

 

[mitalidas]

Of all the top contenders, I think nadal's fortune depends the most on the draw. I still think roddick would beat him on hardcourts, and safin will as well. I do think that nadal has improved enough over the year that he could take hewitt out (both do the same things, but nadal even beats hewitt in retrieval).
As a Federer fan, I do somewhat cringe at the thought of a Federer-nadal final (I'd give the edge to Federer, but just barely)

 

[NYCtennisfan]

If Federer is in the lineup on a hc/grass tourney or Nadal is on a clay tourney -> Outright winner bets are useless

Totally agree.

 

[Merton]

A lot will depend on the draw, even before the favourites are due to meet. In particular, there are dangerous floaters that might take out the high seeds in earlier rounds. It will be interesting to update the probabilities after the draw.