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Nadal with 1700 point lead going into the stretch looking healthy and great chance to win Toronto and Us Open. Played above what many predicted for Wimbledon.
 

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It is fairly simple; Federer needs to win USopen to get nr1, if Djokovic wins Usopen he can also end nr1.

If no one in top 3 wins Usopen NAdal ends nr1.

Federer is favorite to win Cincy and Djokovic Toronto, but Nadal will kill himself to dig for points for nr1, expect him to play Beijing+Shanghai even if he plays Usopen final, and obviously Paris too even if half-injured.
 

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If no one in top 3 wins Usopen NAdal ends nr1.
If one of Del Potro or Zverev wins the USO, they have a chance too, though an outside one at that.

Del Potro is good indoors, so might be interesting if he wins the USO. It could become a 5 horse race if Zverev has a good pre-USO run and a decent run in the USO as well while Del Potro wins it.

Imagine if Del Potro wins the USO but Zverev has a good season every where else, and ends up winning No1 ahead of the 4 slam winners !!!
 

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Nadal is very inconsistent in Toronto and Cincinnati, but he has huge advantage on the new USO court (similar to last year) , because the court there is slow and the ball bounce very high, i really thinks he can win there again,he need to stay healthy because he was pretty good in Wimbledon
 

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Cannot look past Canada

We will see who even plays
 

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If Nadal can push Djokovic to the absolute brink on indoor grass, he can beat Djokovic again at the US Open (as he did in 2010 and 2013) and for the first time at the Australian Open (as he almost did at 2012ao).
 

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I think the most likely way for Rafa to not be number 1 would be for him to succumb to injury and/or general fatigue. It won't be the first time, such is his aggressive scheduling. Otherwise, with a 1700 gap to Fed and 2400 gap to Novak, I can't see them bridging that.
 

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Nadal has a 2,700 point lead, not 1,700.

After Wimbledon, I think Nadal has become the clear favorite now to be the year-end number 1.
Federer's chances diminished considerably, and Djokovic's chances rose quite a lot.

Probabilities (as I see them):

1. Nadal: 60%
2. Djokovic: 20%
3. Federer: 15%
4. Del Potro: 3%

Everybody else: 2%
According to the live site I've looked at, it is 1700 to Fed and 2400 to Novak. Not sure how you've got 2700.
 

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According to the live site I've looked at, it is 1700 to Fed and 2400 to Novak. Not sure how you've got 2700.
My bad, I miscalculated.

Well a 1,700-point lead isn't that big.

I still think Nadal is a favorite, but not by as much as I thought originally.

Maybe it's more like:

1. Nadal: 45%
2. Djokovic: 25%
3. Federer: 20%
4. Del Potro: 5%
5. Everybody else: 5%
 

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My bad, I miscalculated.

Well a 1,700-point lead isn't that big.

I still think Nadal is a favorite, but not by as much as I thought originally.

Maybe it's more like:

1. Nadal: 45%
2. Djokovic: 25%
3. Federer: 20%
4. Del Potro: 5%
5. Everybody else: 5%
As I said, I think it depends on whether Rafa stays fit. If he does, I think your original probability for Rafa looks about right, though I'd have Novak and Fed equal; there may be a case of recency bias there, the next tournament is another day and there is a tendency to 'overrate' the last winner. Just to give you a context on the current lead, I think last year Rafa was only 500 clear at this point and he still made number 1 with something to spare, albeit with a somewhat unexpected USO win. It may not be his best period of the year but if he's healthy, he'll still be racking up big points, regardless what Fed and Novak manage.

To be honest, now the big 3 are all back, I think the chances of a winner outside those 3 is minimal and certainly a lot less than 10%. I love Delpo as much as anyone, but he just isn't going to be a number 1 and while Sasha might, I think, finally go seriously deep in a slam, but he just doesn't have the consistency right now to keep racking up big points in pretty much every event, which is what he'd need.
 

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Nadal's strike rate at the US Open is outstanding since 2010.
He only played in 2010, 2011, 2013, 2015, 2016 and 2017.
He won it in 2010, 2013 and 2017.
 
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