It is fairly simple; Federer needs to win USopen to get nr1, if Djokovic wins Usopen he can also end nr1.
If no one in top 3 wins Usopen NAdal ends nr1.
Federer is favorite to win Cincy and Djokovic Toronto, but Nadal will kill himself to dig for points for nr1, expect him to play Beijing+Shanghai even if he plays Usopen final, and obviously Paris too even if half-injured.
Nadal is very inconsistent in Toronto and Cincinnati, but he has huge advantage on the new USO court (similar to last year) , because the court there is slow and the ball bounce very high, i really thinks he can win there again,he need to stay healthy because he was pretty good in Wimbledon
If Nadal can push Djokovic to the absolute brink on indoor grass, he can beat Djokovic again at the US Open (as he did in 2010 and 2013) and for the first time at the Australian Open (as he almost did at 2012ao).
I think the most likely way for Rafa to not be number 1 would be for him to succumb to injury and/or general fatigue. It won't be the first time, such is his aggressive scheduling. Otherwise, with a 1700 gap to Fed and 2400 gap to Novak, I can't see them bridging that.
As I said, I think it depends on whether Rafa stays fit. If he does, I think your original probability for Rafa looks about right, though I'd have Novak and Fed equal; there may be a case of recency bias there, the next tournament is another day and there is a tendency to 'overrate' the last winner. Just to give you a context on the current lead, I think last year Rafa was only 500 clear at this point and he still made number 1 with something to spare, albeit with a somewhat unexpected USO win. It may not be his best period of the year but if he's healthy, he'll still be racking up big points, regardless what Fed and Novak manage.
To be honest, now the big 3 are all back, I think the chances of a winner outside those 3 is minimal and certainly a lot less than 10%. I love Delpo as much as anyone, but he just isn't going to be a number 1 and while Sasha might, I think, finally go seriously deep in a slam, but he just doesn't have the consistency right now to keep racking up big points in pretty much every event, which is what he'd need.
I don't know why it took until COVID for RG to finally release their best matches.
This is one of THE Classic Nadal vs. Djokovic matches. Prime , quick and Servebot Nadal, plus peak forehand and good backhand.
Also one could see how motivated Djokovic was in this match, he had a game plan and...
Interesting comparison between Weak and Golden Era competition. I deliberately skipped multislam champions, Murray, Wawrinka and ofc Djokovic + improved Nadal (not just clay beast as he was in weak era), because thay ARE the reason why their era is called Golden after all...
But look at these...
Mark my words!
Given that MTF is all about outrageous predictions (that either do or do not come true), this is mine.
Reasoning, this is how the curve has gone for South Korea and for China. Why would Italy, and the rest of the world be different. We are discovering new methods for treating...
Only Borg (x3), Dal (x2), Rogie (x1) and Rod Laver (x1) did it. Borg and Laver are the most impressive since the transition was from grass to clay, instead of a mere change in color (e.g. green to red).