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Very unlikely they'll get to that without a 5th set unless all 4 sets go to at least 7-5. Either way it will be close.

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4 sets - 3 tie-breaks and 1 set by break or 5 sets - 1 set by break 3 tie-breaks and 5th set like 20-22 so year a lot of games
 

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Very unlikely they'll get to that without a 5th set unless all 4 sets go to at least 7-5. Either way it will be close.

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Two crap returners. Two amazing servers. Low-skidding bounce on grass.

7-6, 6-7, 7-6, 7-6

13, 26, 39, 52. Total: 52

Only need 4 sets.

7-6, 6-7, 6-4, 7-6

12, 26, 36, 49. Total: 49

It is marginally higher than what it should probably be, but if you had a gun to your head and your life depended on calling that over or under, you know you'd go over. ;)
 

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Math here.

According to bookies the total number of sets odds are approximately:
3 sets - 31% - Means definitely under 47.5
4 sets - 40%
5 sets - 29% - Means definitely over 47.5 (Chances of less than 9.5 games per set on average are negligible)

In case of 4 sets:

-If there are 4 TB sets, then it's over. 52 > 47.5
-If there are 3 TB sets, then it's almost certainly over. 6-2 or less needed in the remaining set for it to be under.
-If there are 2 TB sets, then it's almost certainly under. Something like 7-5 6-4 needed in the remaining sets, which is very unlikely.
-If there are 1 or 0 TB sets, then it's under. (unless it's 6-7 7-5 7-5 7-5, which will never happen).

At about 55% for a TB in a specific set, the odds for AT LEAST 3 TBs in a 4 sets match are about 40%.

Overall 0.29 + (0.4 * 0.4) = 0.45 = 45% over, 55% under.
 

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Remember, a 6/3 is almost as likely as a 6/4. Meanwhile 7/5s are extremely uncommon.

Highest I can find is 44.5 (Aus10 Karlo-Ljubo, Wim11 Karlo-Tips, Wim11 Muller-Raonic). The former went under, 40 games, the latter two were retirements.
 

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Remember, a 6/3 is almost as likely as a 6/4. Meanwhile 7/5s are extremely uncommon.
Yes, it's just a standard routine scoreline depending mostly on who serves first. But more often than not, the player who won the last set is also favorite for the current set, and the player who won the last set usually serves second in this set, making it more likely to be 6-4. :)
 

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Do you guys actually realise howmany statistic boffins there are out-there that fathom over points won on 1st and 2nd serve..... + points won when returning 1st and 2nd serve?

If you look deeply into the stats, you'll find as good as server as Lopez is, he barely breaks the serve of an opponent with a huge serve. His match against Ante Pavic, who's largely a challenger player at best, is further proof of this. He has very little chance of dealing with Isner's kick and try and imagine Isner getting back Lopez's lefty serve with from his backhand? LOL!

The only thing stopping there being tiebreaks all throughout the entire match are drops in intensity. That's the only way either player can get broken here, if the other drops their intensity level on serve.
 

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Yes, it's just a standard routine scoreline depending mostly on who serves first. But more often than not, the player who won the last set is also favorite for the current set, and the player who won the last set usually serves second in this set, making it more likely to be 6-4. :)
Yeah, it's a fairly marginal effect though. 6-3 sets are 21.9% of the total on tour, 6-4 are 23.1% (over the last decade)

In a close match, expand that gap a bit. Not by a great deal though.
 

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Discussion Starter #12
Yeah, it's a fairly marginal effect though. 6-3 sets are 21.9% of the total on tour, 6-4 are 23.1% (over the last decade)

In a close match, expand that gap a bit. Not by a great deal though.
Do you have percentages for number of sets in slams? 3,4 or 5?

I've always been intrigued to see a comparison by rounds in that regard.
 

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Do you have percentages for number of sets in slams? 3,4 or 5?
Sure, 5334 main draw matches:

3-0 2625 49.2%
3-1 1514 28.4%
3-2 958 18.0%

The remainder are walkover, ret, default.

Make it r3+, and those figures basically are identical: 49.8%, 27.8%, 18.3% (a little surprising, I'd have expected closer matches leading to closer scorelines).
 

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it's been calculated very precisely by the bookie and it is indeed a coin toss at this point, at odds under 2.00 for each.

I would definitely try an under in these conditions if i had to gamble.

One two breaks set at 6-1 and it's won.

But it will end up +/- 1-2 games around this line, so not a real betting oportunity.

i like much better the Isner -1.5 games at Marathon for 2.45, sounds like a coin toss as well, yet with sexier odds.
 

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it's been calculated very precisely by the bookie and it is indeed a coin toss at this point, at odds under 2.00 for each.

I would definitely try an under in these conditions if i had to gamble.

One two breaks set at 6-1 and it's won.

But it will end up +/- 1-2 games around this line, so not a real betting oportunity.

i like much better the Isner -1.5 games at Marathon for 2.45, sounds like a coin toss as well, yet with sexier odds.
Latso you're mistaken. The bookie did not set the line to 47.5 games, the punters did. Punters being the people that place the money on the over / under.

The line was 'open' by the bookies at 43.5 games. That line then went up after many people crushed it's price. It moved up to 44.5, 45.5, 46.5 and now eventually 47.5 games.

The bookies see the money coming in and they realise (Or believe they've realised) they actually have gotten it wrong. So adjust the line accordingly.

http://gyazo.com/ab2d6b9186992167f5cbf8822fa09de9
 
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