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Discussion Starter #1
Djokovic the favourite but just a slight one

@1.72 vs @2.10

The odds are on bet365. Do you agree? I do, obviously Djokovic would've been the bookies favourite and I think he would've been something around @1.57 - @1.61 if it wasn't for Federer's performance today
 

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Yes, I agree. The match-up advantage Djokovic has in general (not counting Federer's game being more suited to grass), evens out Federer's form coming into the match. I think unlike Murray, Djokovic will figure out a way to make it a grinding ordeal and wear Federer down. To have any chance, Federer will need to reproduce the serving performance he had today and hope Djokovic isn't totally on his return game.
 

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Discussion Starter #5

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Fed is playing better and Novak is playing worse than last year.
 

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I don't think it's only Fed's performance, it's also Novak's performance in some matches this Wimbledon. Djokovic is still the slight favourite for being clearly the best player of the two this year, but Fed looks better this Wimbledon.
But if you want a quality opinion, I'm a Federer - Djokovic finals expert and I can confidently say that Federer will win this one.
 

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if stays like this till Sunday, at my place will be a bonus bet and i'll get it for @1,85 on Djokovic. will definitely take it
 

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Discussion Starter #10
if stays like this till Sunday, at my place will be a bonus bet and i'll get it for @1,85 on Djokovic. will definitely take it
Same goes here. or something like @1.9 vs @2.10
 

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I'd make it more like Djokovic 1.60 Fed 2.55. You have irrational components on both sides driving the opener:

1) Djokovic was half asleep today as he knew he'd always beat Gasquet, the narrow survival against Anderson who he clearly underrated, and then add on faint whiffs of injury. He'll be razor sharp against Federer.

2) Federer will be over-rated because Murray hit everything hideously short today. Djokovic is the master of consistent depth, and that will totally neuter him - most of today's easy clean winners will become errors, or more likely he simply won't attempt them.

3) There's a lot of Russian money on Federer this year. I don't know the identity, but it's more likely whales betting $100k a pop than anyone sharp. You can see already it's happening again now for the final - you could end up with Federer actually favourite at the Russian books if this keeps up, and then the arbers will result in the effect of that money ending up elsewhere. Edit: lol, you can get Federer 1.87 at Marathon, but Djokovic 2.22 at Pinnacle. This market is going to be nuts.


Having said that, Djokovic made an almighty mess of last year's final, which should have been routine straight sets, and Federer will be on a high. It would be kinda fun for him to get his last slam now, one last burst - that's where my sympathies lie personally, but only if I resist the Djokovic price :)



Edit2: apparently 2/3 of bets are going on Federer atm
 

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Who cares

Murray was the favorite today and never won a set
 
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