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Full thoughts and notes!


How Close Is Daniil Medvedev To World #1?

Ranking:

Djokovic- 12,133, defends 400 pts from Finals, 1000 pts from Paris, 180 points from Shanghai, 23 points from Indian Wells, 500 from Tokyo, and 90 from Vienna, defends 2193 until end of year = 9,940 + whatever he does the rest of the year

Medvedev- 10,780, defends 1500 pts from Finals, 1000 pts from Paris, 1000 pts from Shanghai, 90 from Vienna, 250 from St. Pete, 23 from Indian Wells = defends 3863 until end of year = 6,917 + whatever he does the rest of the year

Djokovic has 3,023 point cushion over Medvedev in the ranking for the rest of the season

Medvedev can get 10,417 with a sweep, 10,917 if Vienna as well. Djokovic must score 477 points to cover the 3 title sweep, and must score 977 points to cover the 4 title sweep.

Race:

What will they play rest of year? My prediction is Paris and Turin for Djokovic only, and probably Indian Wells, Paris, and Turin for Medvedev. Vienna is an option for both as well for an extra 500 points

Only 1990 point cushion in the race to #1. ATP has said the YE #1 for 2021 will be whoever gets the most 2021 points but the computer ranking #1 would be who is still #1 on the rankings that are still partially COVD-affected until August 2022.

Djokovic- 8370
Medvedev- 6380

For me and my numbers, whoever is the ranking #1 is who will be the YE #1 as well. Hopefully we do not have a controversy where Medvedev scores the most 2021 points but not enough points to be the computer ranking #1. What a mess that would be!

Medvedev would have to outscore Djokovic by between 1990 and 3023 points to have a "split" #1. More than 3023 and he is #1 with no controversy, and less than 1990 and Djokovic remains #1
Sorry for being too pedantic but found couple of errors in your calculation.

From the 10780 points in the current official tally of Medvedev, the 23 points from IW are not countable and therefor shouldn't be deducted. In addition, he has 10 point from Rome that are not countable.
These points (IW and Rome) will become countable after points from St. Petersburgh and Shanghai drop (St. Pete's points drop next Monday)
Djokovic on the other side doesn't have as many tournaments played and his IW points are countable this week.

Therefore the number of points Djokovic is not defending this year is correct - 9940, while Medvedev is not defending a total of 6950 points. As result, Djokovic's cushion is 2990 instead of 3023 points.

Last but not least, you don't need to calculate the points each player is not defending, but simply go to ATP Open Era & Live Rankings and deduct Djokovic's and Medvedev's points by 23 each (Slasher still has March of 2022 as a drop date for the IW points)
 

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Discussion Starter · #2,462 ·
Last but not least, you don't need to calculate the points each player is not defending, but simply go to ATP Open Era & Live Rankings and deduct Djokovic's and Medvedev's points by 23 each (Slasher still has March of 2022 as a drop date for the IW points)
The September update of the ATP features IW 2019 dropping on the 2021 replay. So, OER will also be updated as soon as I find some time.
 

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Sorry for being too pedantic but found couple of errors in your calculation.

From the 10780 points in the current official tally of Medvedev, the 23 points from IW are not countable and therefor shouldn't be deducted. In addition, he has 10 point from Rome that are not countable.
These points (IW and Rome) will become countable after points from St. Petersburgh and Shanghai drop (St. Pete's points drop next Monday)
Djokovic on the other side doesn't have as many tournaments played and his IW points are countable this week.

Therefore the number of points Djokovic is not defending this year is correct - 9940, while Medvedev is not defending a total of 6950 points. As result, Djokovic's cushion is 2990 instead of 3023 points.

Last but not least, you don't need to calculate the points each player is not defending, but simply go to ATP Open Era & Live Rankings and deduct Djokovic's and Medvedev's points by 23 each (Slasher still has March of 2022 as a drop date for the IW points)
Yes the 23 points from Indian Wells 2019 are not counted now and will go on after St. Pete falls off, then fall off itself after Indian Wells 2021.

And the 10 points from Rome '21, yes he can carry into 2022. We shall see if that small amount makes a difference, it just might in such a close race
 

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That’s about which unique year-end ranking each player is assigned, which is used for statistical purposes, like how many seasons a player was ranked in the YE top 3, etc.

If the Race and Ranking are led by the same player, the YE list is identical to the Ranking, as it has been in previous years.

If the Race #1 and Ranking #1 are different players, then:
Race #1 will be YE#1
Ranking #1 will be YE#2 (bumped down one spot)
Beyond that, each subsequent player in the Ranking will take the next available spot on the YE list. (That is my interpretation). Basically what you said by “pushing“ the race #1 to the top and others dropping as needed to make space.

Theoretically, if the race #1 would be 5th in the ranking, the top 4 in the ranking would be bumped down a spot to make the YE list to occupy spots 2-5.
Thanks for the nice explanation! It makes sense as such. But is there any indication from ATP that this will happen? ATP generally does not release any separate year-end ranking AFAIK -- the last standard ranking itself becomes the year-end ranking.

Since they are going to award the year-end #1 title to Race leader -- if the Race leader and standard ranking leader is different -- there are 2 ways they can handle this:

1. Create a special year-end ranking as you described -- by putting Race leader at the top, and the remaining come from standard ranking (except the player pulled to the top).

2. Just award the "Year-End #1 Title" to Race leader -- and keep both standard and race rankings unaffected -- and not release any special year-end ranking at all. The last standard ranking of the year becomes the year-end ranking with an asterisk for the Race-leader being treated as "Year-End #1". The statisticians will always have to asterisk out this anomaly in their records and stats.

Unless they have specified they will do approach 1 -- my guess is they will just go for approach 2 which is simpler and less hacky from their perspective.

Approach 2 makes sense since creating a special year-end ranking where different criteria is used for first player and the rest of the players is weird. So in approach 2, for the stats for weeks at #1, the standard ranking #1 will count -- as the race leader will not be official #1 -- he will just have a special "Year-End #1 title" which has no official rank recognition. The last standard rankings will remain the official rankings for year-end ranking.
 

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Discussion Starter · #2,465 ·
1. Create a special year-end ranking as you described -- by putting Race leader at the top, and the remaining come from standard ranking (except the player pulled to the top).

____

Unless they have specified they will do approach 1 -- my guess is they will just go for approach 2 which is simpler and less hacky from their perspective.
Font Material property Parallel Screenshot Number
 

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Thanks for the nice explanation! It makes sense as such. But is there any indication from ATP that this will happen? ATP generally does not release any separate year-end ranking AFAIK -- the last standard ranking itself becomes the year-end ranking.

Since they are going to award the year-end #1 title to Race leader -- if the Race leader and standard ranking leader is different -- there are 2 ways they can handle this:

1. Create a special year-end ranking as you described -- by putting Race leader at the top, and the remaining come from standard ranking (except the player pulled to the top).

2. Just award the "Year-End #1 Title" to Race leader -- and keep both standard and race rankings unaffected -- and not release any special year-end ranking at all. The last standard ranking of the year becomes the year-end ranking with an asterisk for the Race-leader being treated as "Year-End #1". The statisticians will always have to asterisk out this anomaly in their records and stats.

Unless they have specified they will do approach 1 -- my guess is they will just go for approach 2 which is simpler and less hacky from their perspective.

Approach 2 makes sense since creating a special year-end ranking where different criteria is used for first player and the rest of the players is weird. So in approach 2, for the stats for weeks at #1, the standard ranking #1 will count -- as the race leader will not be official #1 -- he will just have a special "Year-End #1 title" which has no official rank recognition. The last standard rankings will remain the official rankings for year-end ranking.
So the screenshot at least shows that the regular Ranking will be used as YE ranking with one exception. Otherwise everything is our own interpretation I’m afraid.

The difference between approaches 1 and 2 is mostly which YE rank the Ranking #1 will get, if he’s not Race #1. In approach 1 it is YE#2, in approach 2 it is an asterisked YE#1 (which would be confusing). In the latter case, does it count towards the number of seasons that this player has been ranked top 2? I would hope so. But not top 1, I expect. So effectively this player has YE#2 anyway…

If the Race #1 has Ranking #3, then the Ranking #2 will be YE#3 in approach 1, but will be an asterisked YE#2 in approach 2. Again, I think the season should not count towards their total top 2 seasons, only to top 3 and up. But who knows, maybe ATP will still consider it a top 2 season?
 

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So the screenshot at least shows that the regular Ranking will be used as YE ranking with one exception. Otherwise everything is our own interpretation I’m afraid.

The difference between approaches 1 and 2 is mostly which YE rank the Ranking #1 will get, if he’s not Race #1. In approach 1 it is YE#2, in approach 2 it is an asterisked YE#1 (which would be confusing). In the latter case, does it count towards the number of seasons that this player has been ranked top 2? I would hope so. But not top 1, I expect. So effectively this player has YE#2 anyway…

If the Race #1 has Ranking #3, then the Ranking #2 will be YE#3 in approach 1, but will be an asterisked YE#2 in approach 2. Again, I think the season should not count towards their total top 2 seasons, only to top 3 and up. But who knows, maybe ATP will still consider it a top 2 season?
What a mess ATP has made for themselves
 

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Does anyone know how ATP calculates the ATP Finals qualification cutoff every week?
 

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Does anyone know how ATP calculates the ATP Finals qualification cutoff every week?
The ATP is helped out by computers that calculate all the scenarios available.

The easiest way to think about it is that there are only so many points that can still be won this year, 3250 is the maximum a player can win from now on (2 x 1000, 1 x 500, 3 x 250). Only one player could have the opportunity of winning that many points in the remainder of the season. That is based on them playing and winning a tournament every week from now until the last qualifying tournament of the year:
San Diego/Sofia 250
Indian Wells 1000
Moscow/Antwerp 250
Vienna/St. Petersburg 500/250
Paris 1000
Stockholm 250.
If one player achieves that feat of winning 3250 points, the next highest points available for one other player would be 1950 points, i.e. runner up points each week, and so on.
Rafa is out through injury, so the player in 9th position will earn a berth at Turin.

Based on the points won so far this year (from Official Site of Men's Professional Tennis | ATP Tour | Tennis - scroll down to the Race for Turin bit), Felix in 10th position at the moment is 3150 points behind Stefanos in 3rd, but is only 2595 points behind Alexander in 4th at the moment, who has 4915 points.
Felix would have to win Indian Wells, Paris, Vienna and a 250 and Alexander could win less than 655 points until the end of the season. So Felix would have a chance of eliminating Alexander from entry into Turin based on that scenario. As soon as Alexander gains another 655 points or Felix loses the opportunity to gain 655 points in the rest of the season, Alexander should gain a place in the finals. There are only 6 players not already in the top 9 players of the year, who, if they gain all 3250 maximum points available, could possibly deny Alexander from a place in Turin now (but remember 3250 points could only ever be won by one player for the remainder of this season). Bautista Agut can only get to 4835 points maximum. If Cam Norrie or Denis Shapovalov fail to win San Diego this week then they cannot match the points that Alexander has already won so far in the season, increasing his chances of qualifying.
These scenarios for qualifying change with every match played and points earned or lost.
Zverev, Rublev and Berrettini should all be confirmed for entry into Turin very soon.
I hope that helps.
 

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I believe Djokovic clinches 345 weeks with this loss, and so now it comes down to the rest of the season

If Medvedev wins Moscow, Vienna, Paris, and YEC 5-0, he gets 10,290 points

If Djokovic skips the rest of the season, he ends with 9850 points

So the YE #1 is not quite finished yet, but Med would have to vulture crazy and Djokovic not to post for it to happen

Also if Tsitsipas wins IW, Vienna, Paris, YEC, he gets 10,215 points, which is also mathematically possible to get to #1

Tsitsipas winning IW will get him tied with Medvedev in the 2021 race too

But Djokovic is also defending 665 points very early in 2022 from ATP Cup 2020, so he must have enough cushion to defend against that

So every week counts. Djokovic now does not need to take a WC to Vienna and can play Paris and Turin without excessive pressure
 

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Upadate on the races:

RACES:

Wintering at No.1: (ATP Open Era & Live Rankings)

1. Djokovic 9940
2. Medvedev 7040 (ELIMINATED)
3. Tsitsipas 6450
4. Zverev 5590 (ELIMINATED)

o Djokovic will need 210 points to spend the winter at No.1 and to pretty much secure 355 weeks at No.1 (still can lose his No.1 earlier after ATP Cup). Novak can lose the NO.1 ONLY if Tsitsipas wins IW, Vienna, Paris and WTF
o Medvedev can't spend the winter at No.1.
o Tsitsipas will need to cover 2901 points
o Zverev can't spend the winter at No.1.
========================================

Race to YE No.1 ( ATP Open Era & Live Rankings )

1. Djokovic 8370
2. Medvedev 6470
3. Tsitsipas 5560
4. Zverev 5005

o Djokovic will need 850 points to secure his 7th YE NO.1
o Medvedev will need to cover 1901 points to win his 1st YE NO.1
o Tsitsipas will need to cover 2810 points to win his 1st YE NO.1
o Zverev will need to cover 3365 points to win his 1st YE NO.1
=========================================
 

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Week by week

Djokovic Week #342: Oct 11 2021, Djokovic- 11,633 vs Medvedev- 10,575

Djokovic Week #343: Oct 18 2021, post IW, Djokovic- 11,430 vs Medvedev- 9,630 after R16, will Med play Moscow?

Djokovic Week #344: Oct 25 2021, If Med wins Moscow +160 points is 9790 points vs Djokovic 11,430

Djokovic Week #345: Nov 1 2021- Djokovic 2019 Paris 1000 points fall off, he will go to 10,340, plus anything if he plays Vienna 500 2021. Medvedev's Paris 2020 points will not fall off until the following week, this is 10,250 for Nole vs 9790 Medvedev, assuming Moscow title for Med

Djokovic Week #346: Nov 8 2021- Djokovic down to 9,940 points plus whatever he does at Vienna and Paris if he plays. Medvedev is at 7,290 even if he wins Moscow, plus whatever he does at Vienna if he plays and Paris if he plays.

Djokovic Week #347: Nov 15 2021- YEC week
Djokovic Week #348: Nov 22 2021- DC Week 1
Djokovic Week #349: Nov 29 2021- DC Week 2
Djokovic Week #350: Dec 6 2021- Week off
Djokovic Week #351: Dec 13 2021- Abu Dhabi Dec 16-18
Djokovic Week #352: Dec 20 2021- AO qualies?
Djokovic Week #353: Dec 27 2021- travel week
Djokovic Week #354: Jan 3 2022- 250 week
Djokovic Week #355: Jan 10 2022, Djokovic defends ATP Cup points
Djokovic Week #356: Jan 17 2022, AO begins
Djokovic Week #357: Jan 24 2022, AO continues
Djokovic Week #358: Jan 31 2022, AO is over, probably DC week
Djokovic Week #359: Feb 7 2022, 250's week
Djokovic Week #360: Feb 14 2022, Rotterdam 500
Djokovic Week #361: Feb 21 2022, Rio 500
Djokovic Week #362: Feb 28 2022, Dubai/Acapulco
Djokovic Week #363: Mar 7 2022, IW Week 1
Djokovic Week #364: Mar 14 2022, IW Week 2
Djokovic Week #365: Mar 21 2022, Miami Week 1, Djokovic surpasses Wills
Djokovic Week #366: Mar 28 2022, Miami Week 2, Djokovic surpasses Gonzales
Djokovic Week #367: Apr 4 2022, Djokovic surpasses Renshaw, DC Week
Djokovic Week #368: Apr 11 2022, Houston/Morocco
Djokovic Week #369: Apr 18 2022, Djokovic surpasses Tilden, Monte Carlo
Djokovic Week #370: Apr 25 2022, Barcelona
Djokovic Week #371: May 2 2022, Estoril/Munich
Djokovic Week #372: May 9 2022, Madrid
Djokovic Week #373: May 15 2022, Rome
Djokovic Week #374: May 22 2022, Geneva/Lyon
Djokovic Week #375: May 29 2022, Djokovic surpasses Laver, RG Week 1
Djokovic Week #376: June 6 2022, RG Week 2
Djokovic Week #377: June 13 2022, 250 grass
Djokovic Week #378: June 20 2022, Djokovic surpasses Graf, 500 grass
Djokovic Week #379: June 27 2022, 250 grass
Djokovic Week #380: July 4 2022, Wimbledon week 1
Djokovic Week #381: July 11 2022, Wimbledon week 2

Somebody else Week #1, July 18 2022, but Nole would already have the all time all gender record at 381 weeks
 
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