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Laver- 374
In my humble opinion (as I said above) -- 374 for Laver cannot be used unless the whole rankings methodology and weekly ranking etc for 1968-1973 is out in the public. Imagine if ATP said "Roger Federer has 400 weeks at #1 but we will not show you how we calculated it"... what kind of confidence would that gather?

Ofcourse MTF is not ATP so standards are very low -- but method should be public atleast to MTF even to claim within MTF that its 374, forget outside MTF.

WDYT?
 
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grkhetan, Slasher already said race has them 1990 points apart. Not 3000.
I am looking from the perspective of Weeks at #1 record... that will be determined from standard ATP ranking right? Race will only be used for YE#1 title and Turin I believe. So yes, if determining whether Novak will have YearEnd#1 title for this year, then Race should be used.
 

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I am looking from the perspective of Weeks at #1 record... that will be determined from standard ATP ranking right? Race will only be used for YE#1 title and Turin I believe. So yes, if determining whether Novak will have YearEnd#1 for this year, then Race should be used.
Correct .....

Daniil will need to cover about 3000 points to prevent Novak from spending the off season at No.1.
The race and YE No.1 title is different animal and he needs to cover "only" 2000 points to be 2021 YE No.1
 
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To avoid confusion, I'll try to post two level updates from now till the year end:

Tournaments:
Neither Djokovic nor the NextGen trio should play any 250 till IW since the trio "signed up" to play the Laver Cup. Furthermore, it is very unlikely that some player will play Kremlin Cup or European Open between IW and Vienna. Therefore I'll take into account IW, Vienna, Paris and WTF (4000 points)

RACES:

Wintering at No.1: (ATP Open Era & Live Rankings)

1. Djokovic 9963
2. Medvedev 6973
3. Tsitsipas 6360
4. Zverev 5523 (ELIMINATED)

o Djokovic will need 1011 points to spend the winter at No.1 and to pretty much secure 357 weeks at No.1 (still can lose his No.1 earlier after ATP Cup)
o Medvedev will need to cover 2991 points
o Tsitsipas will need to cover 3604 points
o Zverev can't spend the winter at No.1.
========================================

Race to YE No.1 ( ATP Open Era & Live Rankings )

1. Djokovic 8370
2. Medvedev 6380
3. Tsitsipas 5470
4. Zverev 4915

o Djokovic will need 2011 points to secure his 7th YE NO.1
o Medvedev will need to cover 1991 points to win his 1st YE NO.1
o Tsitsipas will need to cover 2900 points to win his 1st YE NO.1
o Zverev will need to cover 3455 points to win his 1st YE NO.1
=========================================
 

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Indeed. YE #1 is decided by Race. YE rankings (from #3) are decided by Ranking.

Djoko still needs 1510 pts to secure it if Med does not play Vienna.
What about the YE #2 ranking?

What if at the end of 2021:

Race (only 2021 points)
1. Medvedev
2. Tsitsipas
3. Djokovic

ATP Rankings (used for counting weeks)
1. Djokovic
2. Medvedev
3. Tsitsipas

Then we have:
YE#1 Medvedev (this is certain)
YE#2 Djokovic (since YE#3 is taken by Tsitsipas)
YE#3 Tsitsipas (according to your post)

Is that correct?

Or can Djokovic and Tsitsipas share YE#2 in this scenario, with YE#3 vacant?
 

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What about the YE #2 ranking?

What if at the end of 2021:

Race (only 2021 points)
1. Medvedev
2. Tsitsipas
3. Djokovic

ATP Rankings (used for counting #1 weeks)
1. Djokovic
2. Medvedev
3. Tsitsipas

Then we have:
YE#1 Medvedev (this is certain)
YE#2 Djokovic (since YE#3 is taken by Tsitsipas)
YE#3 Tsitsipas (according to your post)

Is that correct?

Or can Djokovic and Tsitsipas share YE#2 in this scenario, with YE#3 vacant?
The above scenario is indeed:
1. Medvedev YE #1 Race leader
2. Djokovic as Ranking leader falls to first available spot
3. Tsitsipas
 

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In my humble opinion (as I said above) -- 374 for Laver cannot be used unless the whole rankings methodology and weekly ranking etc for 1968-1973 is out in the public. Imagine if ATP said "Roger Federer has 400 weeks at #1 but we will not show you how we calculated it"... what kind of confidence would that gather?

Ofcourse MTF is not ATP so standards are very low -- but method should be public atleast to MTF even to claim within MTF that its 374, forget outside MTF.

WDYT?
Well that is up to @Slasher1985, the data was public for several years here. I went in and looked at every single week in that data file Excel sheet that he had and added it up to 374. He took them down and perhaps he is working on it even more

Maybe I will review my own numbers for everyone, Tilden and Gonzales included, to double check and make sure all is correct
 

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The above scenario is indeed:
1. Medvedev YE #1 Race leader
2. Djokovic as Ranking leader falls to first available spot
3. Tsitsipas
What ranking is this? Merged somehow??

Based on my understanding -- the Race ranking will only be used to:
1. Determine eligibility for Turin, and
2. Determine the "Year-End #1" title that ATP gives to a player at the end of year. This will not change/alter the standard ATP 52-week ranking in any way.

The standard rankings will continue as is and will still be the main ranking apart from the above 2 purposes.

Are you saying somehow the rankings are going to merge the way you described -- like push the Race #1 on top of the standard ranking? Any link to ATP rules for this? I cannot see it mentioned anywhere on the ATP website whether such a merged ranking will be constructed and how.
 

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We have another point drop conundrum from the "covid rankings" era. According to the ATP (the ATP site and points from the individual ranking breakdown pages), the points from St. Petersburgh 2019 (ATP 250) are scheduled to drop this Monday (Sept 20th), the points from St. Petersburgh 2020 (ATP 500) are scheduled to drop on October 18th and the points from the 2021 tournament will be added to the rankings on November 1st 2021.

According to OER - ATP Open Era & Live Rankings, the points from St. Pete'19 will drop as expected on Sept 20th, but the points from St. Pete'20 are scheduled to drop the following week on Sept 27th. If @Slasher1985 is correct and the St. Pete'20 points really drop on September 27th, Rafa would jump temporarily back to the 5th place and would stay there till the end of IW (If Rublev plays in the IW final) or till start of Paris (November 1st). This way Rafa could gain 3-5 weeks at Top 5 :)
 

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What ranking is this? Merged somehow??

Based on my understanding -- the Race ranking will only be used to:
1. Determine eligibility for Turin, and
2. Determine the "Year-End #1" title that ATP gives to a player at the end of year. This will not change/alter the standard ATP 52-week ranking in any way.

The standard rankings will continue as is and will still be the main ranking apart from the above 2 purposes.

Are you saying somehow the rankings are going to merge the way you described -- like push the Race #1 on top of the standard ranking? Any link to ATP rules for this? I cannot see it mentioned anywhere on the ATP website whether such a merged ranking will be constructed and how.
That’s about which unique year-end ranking each player is assigned, which is used for statistical purposes, like how many seasons a player was ranked in the YE top 3, etc.

If the Race and Ranking are led by the same player, the YE list is identical to the Ranking, as it has been in previous years.

If the Race #1 and Ranking #1 are different players, then:
Race #1 will be YE#1
Ranking #1 will be YE#2 (bumped down one spot)
Beyond that, each subsequent player in the Ranking will take the next available spot on the YE list. (That is my interpretation). Basically what you said by “pushing“ the race #1 to the top and others dropping as needed to make space.

Theoretically, if the race #1 would be 5th in the ranking, the top 4 in the ranking would be bumped down a spot to make the YE list to occupy spots 2-5.
 

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Nah, St Pete 2020 will drop on Oct 18, OER dates for the 2021 event followup Monday have not been updated just yet.
Ok ... so Medvedev drops 227 this week instead of 205 and Rafa stays at 6th place
 

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Ok ... so Medvedev drops 227 this week instead of 205 and Rafa stays at 6th place
What?

Oh

The 50% is not happening anymore. It stopped with Cincy. Full 2019 points drop and full 2020 pts stay until Oct 18. Med drops 250, and the 2020 edition's 45 pts replace it.
 

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What?

Oh

The 50% is not happening anymore. It stopped with Cincy. Full 2019 points drop and full 2020 pts stay until Oct 18. Med drops 250, and the 2020 edition's 45 pts replace it.
No my point was ....
o Medvedev - currently OER has a 205 drop, but since the date of St.Pete 2020 needs to be adjusted the actual drop would be 250 - 23 (IW points are countable now) = 227
o Rafa will not move to 5th on September 27th, since Rublev will not drop 500 points on this date


EDIT: Never mind ... so your estimate is correct . Medvedev will drop 205 after all
 
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Full thoughts and notes!


How Close Is Daniil Medvedev To World #1?

Ranking:

Djokovic- 12,133, defends 400 pts from Finals, 1000 pts from Paris, 180 points from Shanghai, 23 points from Indian Wells, 500 from Tokyo, and 90 from Vienna, defends 2193 until end of year = 9,940 + whatever he does the rest of the year

Medvedev- 10,780, defends 1500 pts from Finals, 1000 pts from Paris, 1000 pts from Shanghai, 90 from Vienna, 250 from St. Pete, 23 from Indian Wells = defends 3863 until end of year = 6,917 + whatever he does the rest of the year

Djokovic has 3,023 point cushion over Medvedev in the ranking for the rest of the season

Medvedev can get 10,417 with a sweep, 10,917 if Vienna as well. Djokovic must score 477 points to cover the 3 title sweep, and must score 977 points to cover the 4 title sweep.

Race:

What will they play rest of year? My prediction is Paris and Turin for Djokovic only, and probably Indian Wells, Paris, and Turin for Medvedev. Vienna is an option for both as well for an extra 500 points

Only 1990 point cushion in the race to #1. ATP has said the YE #1 for 2021 will be whoever gets the most 2021 points but the computer ranking #1 would be who is still #1 on the rankings that are still partially COVD-affected until August 2022.

Djokovic- 8370
Medvedev- 6380

For me and my numbers, whoever is the ranking #1 is who will be the YE #1 as well. Hopefully we do not have a controversy where Medvedev scores the most 2021 points but not enough points to be the computer ranking #1. What a mess that would be!

Medvedev would have to outscore Djokovic by between 1990 and 3023 points to have a "split" #1. More than 3023 and he is #1 with no controversy, and less than 1990 and Djokovic remains #1
 

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Agree there, I really hope Medvedev doesn't outscore Djokovic by between 1990 and 3023.

I still think Djokovic will take it, but it's not a gimme.
 

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Agree there, I really hope Medvedev doesn't outscore Djokovic by between 1990 and 3023.

I still think Djokovic will take it, but it's not a gimme.
I think Djokovic can sit back and relax now and watch what happens with Medvedev. L2+Left is playing Laver Cup as well as Indian Wells so if Djokovic skips IW, he can watch and see what's going on. If Medvedev wins IW, Djokovic can then come back sooner in Vienna to defend #1 in Vienna, Paris, and Turin, without leaving Europe.

Should Medvedev lose early (QF or less) in Indian Wells, maybe Djokovic can afford to skip Vienna as well to more fully recharge the batteries after such a grueling season

So we gonna see, definitely The Art of Tennis Ranking War
 
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