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Yup, if Djokovic wins, he's back up to #1 and Rafa's down to #2, but if Thiem wins, Rafa stays at #1, Djokovic stays at #2, Thiem moves up to #3, and Rogie slides down to #4!!
 

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276 .. 10 weeks behind Sampras now
 

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276 .. 10 weeks behind Sampras now
He has almost no points to defend from now until Madrid... He's going to pass Sampras soon.

Passing Federer is a different story
 

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So what is the scenario for Nadal reclaiming #1 before French?
Rafa can reclaim it as early as after Dubai/Acapulco if he wins Acapulco and Novak fails to reach Dubai SF (or withdraws from the tournament)
 

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He has almost no points to defend from now until Madrid... He's going to pass Sampras soon.

Passing Federer is a different story
Chances are Novak will surpass Roger this year. He's 34 weeks behind, and with Rafa defending 4000+ points by end of RG and Novak defending 1600 - it's easy to predict that Novak will be at 300 at that time.
And if Novak gets to the Wimby finals - he'll easily get to 312.
Rafa would have to win everything (and Novak to have really bad results) this year to prevent that from happening.
 

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Chances are Novak will surpass Roger this year. He's 34 weeks behind, and with Rafa defending 4000+ points by end of RG and Novak defending 1600 - it's easy to predict that Novak will be at 300 at that time.
And if Novak gets to the Wimby finals - he'll easily get to 312.
Rafa would have to win everything (and Novak to have really bad results) this year to prevent that from happening.
If not this year Djokovic will easily surpass Federer next year. About time really!! Djokovic and Nadal are miles better than Federer. Hopefully, Djokovic gets the lead at #1 weeks and Nadal gets the grandslams count.
 

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If not this year Djokovic will easily surpass Federer next year. About time really!! Djokovic and Nadal are miles better than Federer. Hopefully, Djokovic gets the lead at #1 weeks and Nadal gets the grandslams count.
I love Nadal - but I think the order of GSs will be 1. Novak, 2. Fed, 3. Nadal
I don't think Nadal will win another GS - this year RG is Novak's. After that - I think Tiem will own it (with Zverev).
And Novak is on a mission now - hence the Wimby/AO/USO will be extremely hard for anyone to take away from him.
All things considered, sans (god forbid) injuries - at the end of the 2021 or early 2022, the order might be:
1. Novak 22, 2. Fed 20, 3. Rafa 19/20
 

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I love Nadal - but I think the order of GSs will be 1. Novak, 2. Fed, 3. Nadal
I don't think Nadal will win another GS - this year RG is Novak's. After that - I think Tiem will own it (with Zverev).
And Novak is on a mission now - hence the Wimby/AO/USO will be extremely hard for anyone to take away from him.
All things considered, sans (god forbid) injuries - at the end of the 2021 or early 2022, the order might be:
1. Novak 22, 2. Fed 20, 3. Rafa 19/20
I highly doubt Djokovic will take slam count from here on. He is already 32 and you think he will win another 5 more with French Open included? Highly unlikely.
Thiem and Medvedev have shown that younger players are coming after Big 3. Nadal will probably win French this year but things will change at Wimbledon/US Open. We will definitely have a player outside big 3 winning a major this year.


Final slam count for Big 3 should look something like this when they're done Nadal (21), Federer (20), Djokovic (18/19).

Djokovic surely will finish with most #1 weeks and Nadal slam count, as things should be!!!
 

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I highly doubt Djokovic will take slam count from here on. He is already 32 and you think he will win another 5 more with French Open included? Highly unlikely.
Thiem and Medvedev have shown that younger players are coming after Big 3. Nadal will probably win French this year but things will change at Wimbledon/US Open. We will definitely have a player outside big 3 winning a major this year.


Final slam count for Big 3 should look something like this when they're done Nadal (21), Federer (20), Djokovic (18/19).

Djokovic surely will finish with most #1 weeks and Nadal slam count, as things should be!!!
Yeah, I think the time will tell...
I don't see Nadal winning any GSs from now on - not even RG. I think Thiem or Medvedev/Zverev will dismiss him in the 4trs or so... And I see them as the only threat to Novak.
Wimbledon is just another opportunity for Fed to lose to Novak, this time probably in 3 sets - and then retire.
My prediction (for the next 18-20 months) is Novak-22, Fed 20, Rafa 19.
 
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