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Which players win the most tiebreaks?
The impact of winning and losing tiebreak points
Do tiebreak points have any trends?
Tennis data, stats and insights


Today Match Prediction

With this year’s tennis season now underway, it is a good time to take an alternative look at how success and failure can emerge on the court. In the third article of a four-part series analysing variants in professional tennis, Dan Weston studies the influence of tiebreaks.
Ascertaining favourites in tiebreaks
Imagine a soccer match between a top Premier League team, such as Manchester City, and a League Two side, such as their local neighbours Salford City. If Manchester City were at home against Salford in a 90-minute competitive match, you would probably see prohibitively short odds for the hosts implying that they had a 90% or greater chance of winning.

However, if they contested Salford in a one-off penalty shootout, those extremely high chances of winning would be reduced quite considerably – they would likely still be favourites, but to not nearly as great an extent.
This presents a similar scenario to tiebreaks in tennis. If Novak Djokovic took on the player ranked 100 in the world for a best of five set Grand Slam match, he would be a similar price to win as Manchester City against Salford.
Equally, if he played the same opponent in a one-off tiebreak match, his chances would be much lower. Again, he would still be the favourite, but to not nearly the same margin.
 
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