[Lancelot]

2025 will mark the first year that none of the Big 3 have won a "Big Title" in more than 20 years of tennis (assuming Novak doesn't play/win Bercy and Turin). It's been an exceptional run, the likes of which we will probably never see again. To mark this, I have created an annotated plot of how each of the Big 3 played, starting from their debut years, taking into account their FHP and BHP based on Tennis Abstract's charted matches.

This is annotated from a Federer perspective since he was the oldest and peaked before Rafole. You can see the Federer FH peaking at >10 FHP in 2004-06 before falling off. The only other time he matched that was the 2017 season.

2010-15 is when Novak comes through. He's doing better than Nadal in 2011 and 2012 in terms of FHP and BHP but then Rafa's FH in 2013-14 gets a scary peak. Federer is clearly 3rd best in this timeframe with both his FH and BH worse than the other two.

I know FHP and BHP are not perfect metrics and especially with SHBH like Federer's, when it doesn't take slice BHs into account but I think it still gives a fairly good idea into how the trivalry (if that's a word) ebbed and flowed among the three.

 

[Moozza]

Big 4 era

 

[tennisfish]

Big 5 era

 

[FlyingSaucer]

Weak era

 

[YonaMX]

Well this graph doesn't show you that all 3 of them were masters of point construction like no other player.

 

[TBkeeper]

FedGod

 

[The Hero Cop Mark]

What are FHP & BHP?

 

[Moozza]

Well this graph doesn't show you that all 3 of them were masters of point construction like no other player.

Murray

 

[YonaMX]

Murray

Yeah also true to a certain extent.

 

[DinnerWarrior]

2025 will mark the first year that none of the Big 3 have won a "Big Title" in more than 20 years of tennis (assuming Novak doesn't play/win Bercy and Turin). It's been an exceptional run, the likes of which we will probably never see again. To mark this, I have created an annotated plot of how each of the Big 3 played, starting from their debut years, taking into account their FHP and BHP based on Tennis Abstract's charted matches.
View attachment 435737

This is annotated from a Federer perspective since he was the oldest and peaked before Rafole. You can see the Federer FH peaking at >10 FHP in 2004-06 before falling off. The only other time he matched that was the 2017 season.

2010-15 is when Novak comes through. He's doing better than Nadal in 2011 and 2012 in terms of FHP and BHP but then Rafa's FH in 2013-14 gets a scary peak. Federer is clearly 3rd best in this timeframe with both his FH and BH worse than the other two.

I know FHP and BHP are not perfect metrics and especially with SHBH like Federer's, when it doesn't take slice BHs into account but I think it still gives a fairly good idea into how the trivalry (if that's a word) ebbed and flowed among the three.

Partial/lacking info vs no info, which is better really? At least the latter doesn't provide ground for faulty reasoning.

 

[Subliminal]

There's no way Djokovic's backhand was better or more potent in 2024 than it was in 2011 and 2015-2016 so this already shows the data is flawed.

 

[The Hero Cop Mark]

There's no way Djokovic's backhand was better or more potent in 2024 than it was in 2011 and 2015-2016 so this already shows the data is flawed.

Not saying FHP&BHP indexes even mean something, but Djokovic's groundstrokes in 2024 are surely more potent than in 2011 in terms of pace, precision, and general damage.
Tennis evolved massively in 15 years, just like football, basketball, ice hockey, etc.
The intensity of the modern game is much higher than it was 15 years ago. This is what tennis pros are saying. That's what Djokovic will tell you if you ask him.
He even basically said that when describing Alcaraz's tennis not that long ago.

However, if you magically teleport 2011 Djokovic to 2025 and give him, like, 3 months, he'll likely adapt to modern standards, and his groundies will be better than current Novak's.

 

[DinnerWarrior]

Not saying FHP&BHP indexes even mean something, but Djokovic's groundstrokes in 2024 are surely more potent than in 2011 in terms of pace, precision, and general damage.
Tennis evolved massively in 15 years, just like football, basketball, ice hockey, etc.
The intensity of the modern game is much higher than it was 15 years ago. This is what tennis pros are saying. That's what Djokovic will tell you if you ask him.
He even basically said that when describing Alcaraz's tennis not that long ago.

However, if you magically teleport 2011 Djokovic to 2025 and give him, like, 3 months, he'll likely adapt to modern standards, and his groundies will be better than current Novak's.

Objective scientific evidence when?

 

[The Hero Cop Mark]

Objective scientific evidence when?

Tennis never had (and will never have) that many people to work with data as in the mentioned sports.
It's undeniable, however, when you watch matches and compare them. Even in 2011, Djokovic could hit multiple short balls during a rally and get away with it. Nadal could hit slow, high slice and get away with it. Federer could hit another weak backhand and get away with it.
Now, someone hits a short ball, it's basically the end of the rally.
The same goes for weak second serves. Now, it's absolutely unimaginable to have top-10 players with second serves of Tsonga or Murray from 2008-2012.
Here are some stats on serve speed (RPM is also very important, but no data for that).

GRAND SLAM STATISTICS

Serve speed – Heavy Topspin

 

[The Hero Cop Mark]

from tennis abstract material

In fact, the 2025 Challenger rate (for double faults from second serves) so far is 9.8%, the first time that the minor leaguers have dipped below double digits.

 

[DinnerWarrior]

Tennis never had (and will never have) that many people to work with data as in the mentioned sports.
It's undeniable, however, when you watch matches and compare them. Even in 2011, Djokovic could hit multiple short balls during a rally and get away with it. Nadal could hit slow, high slice and get away with it. Federer could hit another weak backhand and get away with it.
Now, someone hits a short ball, it's basically the end of the rally.
The same goes for weak second serves. Now, it's absolutely unimaginable to have top-10 players with second serves of Tsonga or Murray from 2008-2012.
Here are some stats on serve speed (RPM is also very important, but no data for that).

GRAND SLAM STATISTICS

Serve speed – Heavy Topspin

People who watch matches yet fail to realise Federer had the highest peak level are poor analysts and their observations may be summarily disregarded, sad but true

Funny how the tennisabstract article (whose author is a massive Federer detractor so any of his opinions have to be taken with a bucket of salt) essentially points out the data is inconclusive apart from a minor improvement in serve direction, yet still confidently asserts that "the tour is getting stronger", lulz.

 

[Subliminal]

Not saying FHP&BHP indexes even mean something, but Djokovic's groundstrokes in 2024 are surely more potent than in 2011 in terms of pace, precision, and general damage.
Tennis evolved massively in 15 years, just like football, basketball, ice hockey, etc.
The intensity of the modern game is much higher than it was 15 years ago. This is what tennis pros are saying. That's what Djokovic will tell you if you ask him.
He even basically said that when describing Alcaraz's tennis not that long ago.

However, if you magically teleport 2011 Djokovic to 2025 and give him, like, 3 months, he'll likely adapt to modern standards, and his groundies will be better than current Novak's.

I don't know about all of that. Even if you do believe that, look how many more errors he hit on the backhand in 2024 and today than he did in a year like 2011 for example, which I think is the best his backhand was at his peak. Take 2011 Madrid final, for example, where he hit more backhand winners than forehand winners and less errors, and pummeled Nadal with that shot.

2024 Djokovic could never in his wildest dreams have a performance like that on that wing. The game may have evolved some but not that much and Djokovic today plays with the same string setup that he played with then. So it's not like he's playing with that much better technology and the field right now overall is a joke. Put 2011 or 2015 Djokovic in today's game and he would put a hammering on the field.

 

[The Hero Cop Mark]

I don't know about all of that. Even if you do believe that, look how many more errors he hit on the backhand in 2024 and today than he did in a year like 2011 for example, which I think is the best his backhand was at his peak. Take 2011 Madrid final, for example, where he hit more backhand winners than forehand winners and less errors, and pummeled Nadal with that shot.

2024 Djokovic could never in his wildest dreams have a performance like that on that wing. The game may have evolved some but not that much and Djokovic today plays with the same string setup that he played with then. So it's not like he's playing with that much better technology and the field right now overall is a joke. Put 2011 or 2015 Djokovic in today's game and he would put a hammering on the field.

Well, 2024 Djokovic has worse movement and reflexes, but I think the sheer quality of his static shots — whether it's groundstrokes or serves — is better than in 2011 or 2015. The way he hit the ball vs Alcaraz at AO25 or Munar at Shanghai (3rd set), that's something that he didn't even need to do in 2011 or 2015, because the intensity was not as high as today.

 

[The Hero Cop Mark]

People who watch matches yet fail to realise Federer had the highest peak level are poor analysts and their observations may be summarily disregarded, sad but true

Funny how the tennisabstract article (whose author is a massive Federer detractor so any of his opinions have to be taken with a bucket of salt) essentially points out the data is inconclusive apart from a minor improvement in serve direction, yet still confidently asserts that "the tour is getting stronger", lulz.

Federer might have had the highest peak level ever relative to the back-then field or to the recent past. It's true for Maradona or Michael Jordan as well. However, today's average level of play on the NBA or top-level football is much higher than during Maradona's/Jordan's time.
With tennis, it's the same. I'm watching some lower-ranked guys every now and then. They had fewer holes in their games than top-100 guys even 10 years ago. Modern tennis players might have less raw talent (e.g., touch) than guys from previous generations. However, they maximize their skills through superior diets, fitness, medicine, attitude, etc. The good indication is what happened to Kyrgios. The guy is as talented as anyone (raw skill), but he doesn't belong to this era because of his poor attitude, conditioning, diet, etc.

 

[Subliminal]

Well, 2024 Djokovic has worse movement and reflexes, but I think the sheer quality of his static shots — whether it's groundstrokes or serves — is better than in 2011 or 2015. The way he hit the ball vs Alcaraz at AO25 or Munar at Shanghai (3rd set), that's something that he didn't even need to do in 2011 or 2015, because the intensity was not as high as today.

Sorry but I disagree with this. His groundstrokes were overall more potent and much more consistent at his peak that they are now. His movement is so much worse that it's much easier to get him off balance.