I think Federer's chances to go to 4th round in RG this year are zero.Can Djokovic beat Wawrinka? Can Djokovic beat Federer? If Federer plays RG like he did in 2019, he may have a chance against Djokovic and even beat Djokovic. Do not mistake, I do not like Federer, but I think Federer played a great RG in 2019 and also a decent semifinal against Rafa (tight first two sets) in those windy conditions.
Djokovic's level dips a bit on clay than on hardcourts. Can Djokovic beat an inspired Zverev, Tsitsipas, or Medvedev at RG, a similar player to an inspired Cecchinato?
To put it shortly, Djokovic's problems at RG are more than Rafa and Thiem.
Rafa's chances to get to the finals are slightly higher, but not more than 10%.