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970 Posts
I'll be quite busy early in the week. so wanted to get some round 1 matches up.
Mahut over Robredo @2.5 (Bet365 sunday night)
0.67 units to win 1 unit
I think this is going to be on a lot of people's cards, Robredo does have the game style to trouble Mahut giving that he is capable off both wings to pass Mahut and has a steady baseline game. However Robredo hasn't shown any confidence/form this year whatsoever, and coming from clay in Peru this wont be an easy task. Furthermore Tommy lost to the attacking game of Mardy Fish at the Oz Open, and has struggled against attacking players generally over the last 6 months. A price of 2.5 is generous and i think worth a play considering Mahut came through well
last week and looked in good touch.
Lopez over Fish @2.1
0.91 units to win 1 unit
Simon comes into this match 3-10 against his last 13 left handed opponents, indicating he is not all that comfortable against lefties. Lopez has a dominating serve and should be able to pick up his fair share of cheap points, whilst he should be in Simon's service games throughout. Reports suggest this isn't one of the fastest indoor surfaces, but i like that Lopez has doubles action on Monday to gim him a feel for the surface.
He played Karlovic tough last week, and i like him in this spot as underdog.
Ljubicic over Berdych @2.52 (Betfair)
0.66 units to win 1 unit
Ljubicic clearly loves this surface here in Rotterdam and even though Berdych comes in here as favourite considering how there respective careers have altered over the last 12 months, this could easily see a tie-break or two; and i would never feel comfortabe taking Berdych in a round 1 match at such short odds. Hopefully Ljubicic has found some confidence after winning a challenger last week, a bit like how ToJo did at the back end of last year and i see this one as closer.
Calleri over Monaco @2.5 (one ball book)
0.67 units to win 1 unit
Both Argentines have had some success here in the past, semi and a final for Calleri with Monaco actually winning the event last year. Notably though, Pico pulled out of Vina del Mar with a second degree sprain. With points to defend and this being his home country im speculating he'd want to play at all costs. 100% fit Monaco i'd expect to wear down Calleri and keeping a good length allow Calleri to beat himself. However with Calleri being the dog here, and with the injury return perhaps Monaco will leave a few extra balls short and we all know Agustin will jump on them with his powerful groundies. H2H Calleri leads 3-1 so clearly his power troubles Monaco, worth a go at this price imo.
GL all
Mahut over Robredo @2.5 (Bet365 sunday night)
0.67 units to win 1 unit
I think this is going to be on a lot of people's cards, Robredo does have the game style to trouble Mahut giving that he is capable off both wings to pass Mahut and has a steady baseline game. However Robredo hasn't shown any confidence/form this year whatsoever, and coming from clay in Peru this wont be an easy task. Furthermore Tommy lost to the attacking game of Mardy Fish at the Oz Open, and has struggled against attacking players generally over the last 6 months. A price of 2.5 is generous and i think worth a play considering Mahut came through well
last week and looked in good touch.
Lopez over Fish @2.1
0.91 units to win 1 unit
Simon comes into this match 3-10 against his last 13 left handed opponents, indicating he is not all that comfortable against lefties. Lopez has a dominating serve and should be able to pick up his fair share of cheap points, whilst he should be in Simon's service games throughout. Reports suggest this isn't one of the fastest indoor surfaces, but i like that Lopez has doubles action on Monday to gim him a feel for the surface.
He played Karlovic tough last week, and i like him in this spot as underdog.
Ljubicic over Berdych @2.52 (Betfair)
0.66 units to win 1 unit
Ljubicic clearly loves this surface here in Rotterdam and even though Berdych comes in here as favourite considering how there respective careers have altered over the last 12 months, this could easily see a tie-break or two; and i would never feel comfortabe taking Berdych in a round 1 match at such short odds. Hopefully Ljubicic has found some confidence after winning a challenger last week, a bit like how ToJo did at the back end of last year and i see this one as closer.
Calleri over Monaco @2.5 (one ball book)
0.67 units to win 1 unit
Both Argentines have had some success here in the past, semi and a final for Calleri with Monaco actually winning the event last year. Notably though, Pico pulled out of Vina del Mar with a second degree sprain. With points to defend and this being his home country im speculating he'd want to play at all costs. 100% fit Monaco i'd expect to wear down Calleri and keeping a good length allow Calleri to beat himself. However with Calleri being the dog here, and with the injury return perhaps Monaco will leave a few extra balls short and we all know Agustin will jump on them with his powerful groundies. H2H Calleri leads 3-1 so clearly his power troubles Monaco, worth a go at this price imo.
GL all
