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Still, no substantive response to this besides insults and nitpicking. I even gave you an out and an opportunity for a civilized response to end the discussion, and you’re still insisting on pretending you don’t understand anything I type.
I have only insulted you when you started doing so.

"A three-page leaked letter from the United Nation's health body to provincial health ministers suggested an intermittent lockdown as a balance between tackling the virus and keeping the economy going."


"Prof. Uri Alon and his graduate students Omer Karin and Yael Korem-Kohanim, together with senior engineer Boaz Dudovich of Applied Materials, suggest, based on an epidemiological model they developed, a policy that effectively suppresses the coronavirus and, at the same time, allows sustainable, albeit reduced, economic activity."


"A strong lockdown is hardship. Therefore we examined whether such a lockdown could be intermitted with periods with normal social contact, without endangering the success of the strategy. We found (Fig. 4a) that a 55%-on-45%-off schedule for the full lockdown will not suppress the epidemic. In order to suppress the SARS-CoV-2 virus, two thirds of the time society should be locked down, leaving one third for social interactions (Fig. 4b and supplementary material Fig. S1). This seems an attractive alternative to a permanent lockdown provided a selection of economic activities that require live human-human interactions could be confined to shorter time periods without increasing contact intensity."

Basically my strategy -> "A more complex strategy should be one where the intensity of the shutdown is adapted on the fly to the severity of the epidemic. Choosing the fraction of the population that is newly tested as virus-positive (blue line in Fig. 5) as the variable controlling the social distancing factor as shown by the orange line in and legend to Fig. 5, this adaptive strategy should do better than a fixed lockdown of comparable intensity. Implemented at time 15 days after the first detection of an infected individual, this should lead to a lethality after one year of only 0.013% (gray line in Fig. 5), i.e., one fourth the 0.33% a continuous 2.25 fold lockdown would have led to (see Fig. 3). A disadvantage of this adaptive strategy is that the mortality increases linearly with time also after the first year. However, the total mortality should still not overtake that of the constant lockdown by social distancing factor of 2.25 until after 10 years. We reckon that long before then a vaccine, some other cure, or an improved patient detection and insulation strategy should have been discovered and put in place. The adaptive lockdown could be optimized further in terms of parameters and with respect to any specific epidemic, culture and geographical unit."

 

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This would result in the worst of both economic and health outcomes.
This is not an insult. It’s a common sense response to a proposal that makes no sense. I elaborated on this in my subsequent post, in response to your dismissive and insulting “it’s simple to prove your logical fallacy” language, which you’ve continued to ignore.

Most of the time I don't care when somebody writes something that is provably wrong, but you started this.
The fact that you suggest anything I’ve said is “probably wrong” whilst doing your best to misunderstand everything I type tells me all I need to know about you. This could have been a decent conversation, what a shame...
 

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Guys, please remain civil.

I actually see where both of you are coming from even if your views aren't meeting squarely in the middle.
The way I see it, a lockdown is necessary when you get to a point where it looks like it will start to spiral out of control. Earlier you realise the need, the better to contain it.

Intermittent lockdown is not ideal but is practical in terms of monitoring the situation and adjusting. Worst come worst, further lockdowns will have to be implemented if there is recurrent infection. Hopefully this will not need to happen, but if it does, that will have to be done and I believe that's what yellow grass is trying to say. That's the policy Australia has been adopting, to go about in stages. Increase restrictions, monitor, then slowly decrease if things are slowing down well for at least 2 weeks. Most states have done well but Victoria has had some spikes so they are postponing some of their intended lifts of restrictions (hopefully they won't need to reintroduce them).
 

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The fact that you suggest anything I’ve said is “probably wrong” whilst doing your best to misunderstand everything I type tells me all I need to know about you. This could have been a decent conversation, what a shame...
"provably" -> which can be proven

Did you read the last paper I quoted?
 

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The mods deleted a few posts, not me. I responded in kind to your replies, which have also been deleted. No matter, at this point.
I see, lol. Well, have a good day
 

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Everybody locks himself up in a bunker and the governments prints the GDP for every year passing by.
 
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It's really a tough question , unbiased . More for us here in Argentina for example who have been enduring among the longest quarentine meassures in the world, and just about entering winter (yesterday) . Just Starting the upward trend of infections. In a exponential way. Just about the worst timing ever for the disease. With poverty , lack of society manners , distrust and economy and all considered. We . are. fucked . in every possible way . Uncertainty, a massive out-of-business. And the government wants to go back to phase 1 ! in the quarentine for Bs as and the Capital. There's no way out of this mess . But pain .

There's no receipe for big 3rd world countries. I'm afraid. In fact , I'm sure of that. Take your pick , every path leeds to disaster. If I lived in bs as I would be pissed as hell.
 
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