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Discussion Starter #41
Well I was just confused how you could say he "once again won the mental battle" when in their previous two matchups, Rublev lost in straight sets.
Once again in the context of his recent matches, not H2H. This the fourth match in the last few weeks Rublev should have lost but managed to win (Tsitsipas [Hamburg], Querrey, Fucsovics and now Shapovalov).
 

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Discussion Starter #43
I was just talking about Federer crowds in big grand slam matches. Worst behaved crowds in the history of tennis IMO.
You haven't delved into the abyss that was the Davis Cup local matches, I see.

Fred weren't enjoying such ubiquitous crowd support in his pomp, btw. It started getting out of hand after the 08-09 Nadal heartbreaks.
 

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You haven't delved into the abyss that was the Davis Cup local matches, I see.

Fred weren't enjoying such ubiquitous crowd support in his pomp, btw. It started getting out of hand after the 08-09 Nadal heartbreaks.
Hell, Canada used to play in Central America with some dreadful crowds before they entered World Group. I've seen some shit. At least those were only a few hundred people behaving badly, though, not thousands. What Djokovic went through in some of those matches over the past decade would have ruined virtually anyone else.
 

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Discussion Starter #45
Hell, Canada used to play in Central America with some dreadful crowds before they entered World Group. I've seen some shit. At least those were only a few hundred people behaving badly, though, not thousands. What Djokovic went through in some of those matches over the past decade would have ruined virtually anyone else.
Pfft, playacting victim djokofan-style, don't be so sad. Audiences typically root against Djokovic but they rarely go seriously overboard in modern tennis a la USO '15, and that was still quite far off old Davis Cup days, for once they didn't throw anything on court lol.
 

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Lacks nuances? Shap has more nuances then 10 Rublev's who is simply a power baseliner. Shap has a million different shots and the problem has been choosing the right ones and not overplaying.
Shap was undone by his Dfs then his elite game came undone.
A million different shots ? sure, like a ros, a sliced BH or a BH DTL.
Shapovalov plays ALWAYS exactly the same regardless of opponent or the moment of the match, that doesn't sound like a player with many nuances in his game, plus his shot selection and rally tolerance are questionable and his game lacks discipline. Rublev might be "simply" a power baseliner, but he has a consistency and an ability to crank up the intensity of rallies that Shapovalov could only dream of.
 

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OP with a very nice summation of the match. I’ll just add that, when he’s on, Shapovalov is the better player. He pretty much hit Rublev off the court in the first set and there was nothing Rublev could do. Rublev, however, is more consistent and focused. Throw in a few Djokovic-like returns deep in the third set, and that was enough to get the W.

Hope Rublev takes the title now.
 

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They absolutely back that up. He's 6th in ELO (soon to be 5th) and 3rd in points won percentage in 2020. That's a gigantic leap from where he was.
And yet, he has 2 top 10 wins this year, compared to 4 top 10 wins last year. The only leap he has made is that he beats players ranked outside the top 50 now at an insane rate, but players inside the top 50, he is just ok (for a higher ranked player) and not good vs top 10.

If you are trying to say he is amazing because he beats players outside the top 50, I can agree with that. I was under the impression we were comparing him to players that are in his ranking range, a range that he is having more trouble with this year than last year.
 

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Disgusting result, Shapo in control and collapses set 2. Now this talentless hack with one of the most annoying grunts ever has a chance at another title.
 

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And yet, he has 2 top 10 wins this year, compared to 4 top 10 wins last year.
They've played a fraction of the matches they did last year so I'm not sure that this has any meaning whatsoever. If he maintained this level over a full 11 month season, he'd obviously have a ton more top 10 wins than in 2019. He's making the QF of every major tournament and picking up wins at the 250/500 level.
 

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OP with a very nice summation of the match. I’ll just add that, when he’s on, Shapovalov is the better player. He pretty much hit Rublev off the court in the first set and there was nothing Rublev could do. Rublev, however, is more consistent and focused. Throw in a few Djokovic-like returns deep in the third set, and that was enough to get the W.

Hope Rublev takes the title now.
When Shapovalov is on, he's better than just about anybody but the Big 3. Unfortunately that doesn't really matter if you have mental hiccups once or twice a set where you completely lose the plot.
 

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Pfft, playacting victim djokofan-style, don't be so sad. Audiences typically root against Djokovic but they rarely go seriously overboard in modern tennis a la USO '15, and that was still quite far off old Davis Cup days, for once they didn't throw anything on court lol.
 

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Discussion Starter #54
Has he though? I know the lazy narrative is that he has, but do the stats actually back that up?

His record vs top 20 is practically identical to last season. His record vs top 50 is actually worse this year than last season.
Top tenners can be hard to come by in this post-pandemic tour, for all his win streak Djokovic beat 1 top 10 player since the break (won Cincy, Rome and reached RG SF without facing a top tenner lel).

Sure wouldn't say Rublev reached the next level given the number of close matches. His clutchness/self-belief did, enabling him to keep winning.
 

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They've played a fraction of the matches they did last year so I'm not sure that this has any meaning whatsoever. If he maintained this level over a full 11 month season, he'd obviously have a ton more top 10 wins than in 2019. He's making the QF of every major tournament and picking up wins at the 250/500 level.
40% win rate in 2020 vs top 10
57% win rate in 2019 vs top 10
 

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Top tenners can be hard to come by in this post-pandemic tour, for all his win streak Djokovic beat 1 top 10 player since the break (won Cincy, Rome and reached RG SF without facing a top tenner lel).

Sure wouldn't say Rublev reached the next level given the number of close matches. His clutchness/self-belief did, enabling him to keep winning.
40% win rate in 2020 vs top 10
57% win rate in 2019 vs top 10
 

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Discussion Starter #58 (Edited)
40% win rate in 2020 vs top 10
57% win rate in 2019 vs top 10
Yes the improvement run started in 2019 Hamburg.
I'd credit 2020 Rublev with some further improvement given his emphatic reversal of the Berrettini USO matchup.

Seeing everyone misuse stats is super tiring btw. Every season some lower-ranked player will have better stats against top (5, 10, 20...) players than some top-ranked players, why? Because lower-ranked players have a smaller sample size of top X meetings so a fluke early round win here and there may skew it. Top-ranked players normally meet other top players more often so flukes are rarer, plus they meet them in later rounds so those top-ranked opponents are less likely to play poor (since if they are in bad form at the moment, chances are they'd have already lost). In this particular example, last year Rublev was 4-3 against top 10, but 2 were early round wins (Fred in Cincy, who only beat Londero to get there, and Tsits at the USO, who hadn't had to beat anyone as it was 1R). This year, Rublev is 2-3 thus far but all wins are late rounds (4R, F). Not to mention 2-3 vs 4-3 is less than a single win differential percent-wise (flip one match and you get 3-2 and 3-4 resp.), talk about small samples.

Overall, Rublev has been 6-6 against top 10 since Hamburg '19 as contrasted with 1-9 before (only win over 2017 USO mugitrough) - a worthy stat for a top 10 entrant.
 

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Discussion Starter #59
By the way, Mugfils has demonstrated that you don't even need top 10 wins to reach the top 10 in this era, provided you're sufficiently adept at vulturing. So you should rather welcome whoever pushes overranked Monfils and Berrettini (the latter being feeble this year and resting on pandemic point laurels) out of the top ten.
 

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Yes the improvement run started in 2019 Hamburg.
I'd credit 2020 Rublev with some further improvement given his emphatic reversal of the Berrettini USO matchup.

Seeing everyone misuse stats is super tiring btw. Every season some lower-ranked player will have better stats against top (5, 10, 20...) players than some top-ranked players, why? Because lower-ranked players have a smaller sample size of top X meetings so a fluke early round win here and there may skew it. Top-ranked players normally meet other top players more often so flukes are rarer, plus they meet them in later rounds so those top-ranked opponents are less likely to play poor (since if they are in bad form at the moment, chances are they'd have already lost). In this particular example, last year Rublev was 4-3 against top 10, but 2 were early round wins (Fred in Cincy, who only beat Londero to get there, and Tsits at the USO, who hadn't had to beat anyone as it was 1R). This year, Rublev is 2-3 thus far but all wins are late rounds (4R, F). Not to mention 2-3 vs 4-3 is less than a single win differential percent-wise (flip one match and you get 3-2 and 3-4 resp.), talk about small samples.

Overall, Rublev has been 6-6 against top 10 since Hamburg '19 as contrasted with 1-9 before (only win over 2017 USO mugitrough) - a worthy stat for a top 10 entrant.
Paragraph 1: Use of small sample size.
Paragraph 2: Saying do not consider arguments presented because of small sample size
Paragraph 3: Use of small sample size.

By the way, I obviously see your point about small sample size, but tennis is a small sample size sport unfortunately.
 
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