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Discussion Starter #1 (Edited)
Frankly, I cant understand why Federer is underdog in final. He is playing good tennis, serving like a robot,looks like his back is OK,and his archenemy Nadull is out, which makes him always play better, to be more confident.Federer never lost to Djokovic on grass.Federer is 7-1 in Wimbledon finals, only loss to prime Nadal in very close fivesetter.

Djokovic struggled vs Stepanek, vs Cilic and vs Dimitrov.He didnt play that well, gave lot of opportunities to opponents.Slipping and sliding on Centre Court is not good for quality of his game.And he even didnt have to play vs Murka, defending champ who beat him year ago.He got youngster who choked on setpoints.He won only 1 Wimby final and he is far from his supernatural 2011 form,when Nadal was his bitch.His poor record in slam finals during last years does not speak for his favor, it says : he has serious problems in mental department.

Fed had easier draw on paper but trickier QF opponent.He dropped only one set and was broken only once during tournament. ( Wawrinka )

I think only reason why public opinion think Djoko has more chances than Fed is fact that Fed is so old and he was non-factor on other slams last few years.His run in Wimbledon 2014 is considered as a fluke.But other slams does not count if we are talking about Wimbledon final .

That said, Djoko may still win if Federror shows up, but odds are ridicilous.

Federer over Djokovic @2.35

GL

Edit : is this 1st Wimbledon final where Federer is underdog ? I dont remember his first final odds in 2003...didnt bet on tennis back then
 

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If I remember correctly, he was around 4/9 to beat Phillipoussis in 2003. He was definitely the favourite going into that match.
 

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Djokovic ( for the reasons I explained before )

to cover -2.5 games handicap @ 2.00

Also, Federer has had a easy pathway to the final and the Raonic match in particular was a bit of a joke. We have not seen him under pressure yet and how he would respond to pressure. Djokovic on the other hand has responded surprisingly well on several ocassions.
 

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Agree with nast I think the strength of the respective draws is telling. It would be nice to see Federer lift the trophy.

Djokovic -2.5 over Federer - $2.01

gl
 

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Edit : is this 1st Wimbledon final where Federer is underdog ? I dont remember his first final odds in 2003...didnt bet on tennis back then
2008 Rafa and Federer were evens. 2012 against Murray might have been about the same from memory.
 

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Frankly, I cant understand why Federer is underdog in final. He is playing good tennis, serving like a robot,looks like his back is OK,and his archenemy Nadull is out, which makes him always play better, to be more confident.Federer never lost to Djokovic on grass.Federer is 7-1 in Wimbledon finals, only loss to prime Nadal in very close fivesetter.

Djokovic struggled vs Stepanek, vs Cilic and vs Dimitrov.He didnt play that well, gave lot of opportunities to opponents.Slipping and sliding on Centre Court is not good for quality of his game.And he even didnt have to play vs Murka, defending champ who beat him year ago.He got youngster who choked on setpoints.He won only 1 Wimby final and he is far from his supernatural 2011 form,when Nadal was his bitch.His poor record in slam finals during last years does not speak for his favor, it says : he has serious problems in mental department.

Fed had easier draw on paper but trickier QF opponent.He dropped only one set and was broken only once during tournament. ( Wawrinka )

I think only reason why public opinion think Djoko has more chances than Fed is fact that Fed is so old and he was non-factor on other slams last few years.His run in Wimbledon 2014 is considered as a fluke.But other slams does not count if we are talking about Wimbledon final .

That said, Djoko may still win if Federror shows up, but odds are ridicilous.

Federer over Djokovic @2.35

GL

Edit : is this 1st Wimbledon final where Federer is underdog ? I dont remember his first final odds in 2003...didnt bet on tennis back then
I agree with most what you say and there is no question about it, Federer looked stronger so far. I see a lot of people with the same reasoning when they make bets but I think they're in the wrong. Maybe Federer does win but as far as I'm concerned evereything that happened so far goes out the window.

There is a bunch of examples for this, so many thats its more of a rule than an exception. Especially matches involving the top 4 guys. The guy who played better the whole tournament may win or he may lose but this match will be a story for it self.

Wimb 2013, Murray winning, almost lost to Verdasco in the qfs, routines Nole in the final

Wimb 2012, Federer winning after almost losing to Benneteau in the 3rd round, comfortable win against Murray in the final,.a month later he gets beaten on the same court 2&1&4

Wimb 2011, Nole winning easily against Rafa in the F after struggling with Tsonga and Tomic, he was the underdog there even tho he was beating Rafa all the time that year

Wimb 2009, Federer almost losing to Roddick after being totaly dominant the earlier rounds

And there's that Murrays USO title, Rafas AO in 2009,....not to mention all the times these guys would meat in Masters events, one looking great, the other one not so much and then the final match, no matter who wins it, is a story for itself.

Matchup, conditions and most importantly the mental aspects are much, much more important than any of the previos rounds IMO, especially in this case as Federer faced no real oposition. The only serious test he had was Wawrinka and he wasnt doing too well there.
But those things are very difficult to judge prematch, especialy the mental thing.

But I expected a closer line also, Djokovic is a bit short I agree. However I have no plans of making a prematch bet, there will be some opportunities in play I think once I get the feel for their level and Noles mental state.


And yes, its the 1st time Federer being the underdog in the final, he certainly wasnt against Philippoussis in 2003 :)
 

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2008 Rafa and Federer were evens. 2012 against Murray might have been about the same from memory.
Roger was firm favourite in 2012, 1.5 at best.

You have all make decent cases for both players for this final, and I can't really add anything to the debate myself. I was probably siding with Novak but I'm more torn between them now, I think over 3.5 sets is a banker and I'll probably bet on over 42.5 games @ 1.85
 

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Discussion Starter #8
2008 Rafa and Federer were evens. 2012 against Murray might have been about the same from memory.
No, I backed Nadal in 2008 and he was underdog from my memory. Here is confirmation from 6th July 2008, QUOTE :

With Federer’s history at Wimbledon, the bookies are favouring him for this game. He has the obvious advantage of grass and the added incentive of a record breaking title too. If you fancy a punt on Federer to win you will be joining the 55.2% of other people who are backing him. The best odds you can achieve at the moment is with Ladbrokes amongst others at 8/11.

However Nadal is not going to be a walk over, he too has a record title to go for.----------------- Sporting Bet are currently offering the best odds for Nadal to win at 6/5.

The betting exchanges BetDaq and Betfair are both offering odds of 0.78/1 in favour of Federer or 1.26/1 in favour of Nadal.

Against Murray Fed was also fav . Quote :

Roger Federer vs. Andy Murray betting odds for Sunday’s Wimbledon 2012 Men’s Final had Federer as a -205 favorite while Murray would pay close to 2/1 odds at BetOnline.

http://www.gambling911.com/sports/roger-federer-vs-andy-murray-odds-–-wimbledon-2012-men’s-final-070712.html

So it has to be first time in Wimby finals old guy is a dog. Can he bite ? We`ll see.
 

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Discussion Starter #9
Murray from Olympics was different animal when he beat Fed . Very aggressive,almost like Rosol in his famous fifth set, painted lines all the time. I think he played his best tennis matches vs Djoko and Fed in Olympics.Plus Fed was dead on his feet after marathon SF vs Del Potro. Now he is fresh as daisy and Djok is not even close to Murrays Olympic level ( or his own level in 2011 ).
 

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Yes, I remember that as well, Federer was the favourite on both ocassions ( 2008 and 2012 ). Not a massive favourite by any means but a clear favourite. It's the first time where he starts as an underdog in the Wimbledon final ( I would imagine he was also favourite against Philippoussis in 2003. )
 

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Is this a repeat of 2011 with the same two winners? Probably but I am still hoping for Fed, still not going to bet but Fed 3-1 for me!
 

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Djokovic ( for the reasons I explained before )

to cover -2.5 games handicap @ 2.00

Also, Federer has had a easy pathway to the final and the Raonic match in particular was a bit of a joke. We have not seen him under pressure yet and how he would respond to pressure. Djokovic on the other hand has responded surprisingly well on several ocassions.
this is pretty much the conservative way punters think and why the bookies wouldn't risk setting the odds according to the chances for both players to win the match. Coz they'd have a snowball of high rollers going with mid sized bets on Djokovic and they'd be unable to recover from the Sunday punters who wait for a big final on TV to make it spicier and bet 10 bucks on the guy they know is the all time GOAT from mass media.

Hence, the great opportunity for tennis specialist punters to get a huge price on the guy who should be if not favorite, at least a virtual 50-50 contender.

roger won't have much more chances, not against non Nadals and not on his favorite grass, healthy as a rock, having spent a ridiculous 10h amount of time on court.

He's serving better than Dimitrov atm and he's returning 600 times better. Djokovic will have a really hard time here and there won't be any fatigue factor to the rescue.

Roger is in much better form than last time they played on fast-ish conditions (WTF) and Djokovic is in quite a worse one.

No one would be shocked if Roger gets through in an alsmot walk over mode in 3 or 4, just as no one would be shocked if Roger folds, shanking a zillion BHs.

But the latter would be a huge exception to the trend in this tournament, while the former would follow all kinds of logic.

Not trying to predict the winner, coz that's not the point. The point is to rate the chances and for me Roger has smth between 50 and 55%.
 

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oh and forgot about their last 3 matches being 2 wins for Roger and 1 win for Nole in a third set TB.

I just fail to see the reasons for Nole to be fave here, except for bookies being careful about the liquidity potential of the match.
 

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Fed @ 2.38

Excellent analysis by everybody so not much to add...Fed has the confidence, form, surface, the fans, dont think he will let this one slip away

GL
 

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Frankly, I cant understand why Federer is underdog in final. He is playing good tennis, serving like a robot,looks like his back is OK,and his archenemy Nadull is out, which makes him always play better, to be more confident.Federer never lost to Djokovic on grass.Federer is 7-1 in Wimbledon finals, only loss to prime Nadal in very close fivesetter.

Djokovic struggled vs Stepanek, vs Cilic and vs Dimitrov.He didnt play that well, gave lot of opportunities to opponents.Slipping and sliding on Centre Court is not good for quality of his game.And he even didnt have to play vs Murka, defending champ who beat him year ago.He got youngster who choked on setpoints.He won only 1 Wimby final and he is far from his supernatural 2011 form,when Nadal was his bitch.His poor record in slam finals during last years does not speak for his favor, it says : he has serious problems in mental department.

Fed had easier draw on paper but trickier QF opponent.He dropped only one set and was broken only once during tournament. ( Wawrinka )

I think only reason why public opinion think Djoko has more chances than Fed is fact that Fed is so old and he was non-factor on other slams last few years.His run in Wimbledon 2014 is considered as a fluke.But other slams does not count if we are talking about Wimbledon final .

That said, Djoko may still win if Federror shows up, but odds are ridicilous.

Federer over Djokovic @2.35

GL

Edit : is this 1st Wimbledon final where Federer is underdog ? I dont remember his first final odds in 2003...didnt bet on tennis back then
Firstly, let me say that you seem to be interpreting the results of the public opinion wrongly. Infact, the opinion you have just expressed in picking Federer for all the reasons stated is the public's opinion. they think as much as you have expressed that Federer is now all that he is not and can never be. Public opinion say that Djokovic has been shaky on grass, has been lucky and all the deviating extras that have been said. Let me clear some very important issues here.

When it comes to the top players like Djoker, Federer, Murray etc, you can never judge how good or bad they are playing except among themselves. For Djokovic the only yardstick for current form is that he has been winning. Mode of winning is totally irrelevant. federer beat an unfocused and non-committed Wawrinka and then dispatched Raonic. Raonic is not in that class that one can use to access Fed appropriately. Once his serve has been returned he suddenly becomes a dewinged chicken. No backhand, no ground strokes, nothing! Before you tip Federer, look at the surrounding factors; Over the last 5yrs Federer has been in decline and still is; there is nothing new in his current game either by way of a new coach, alteration of tennis style, or anything tangible that would suggest victory in any way. Surely he has beat Djokovic a number of times in recent times. but this is a grand slam. It is a grand slam!!!!

People always refer to unnecessary and irrelevant stats concerning surface. This person does well here and there so this should likely happen. Rubbish. The top players play well on all surfaces with the exception of Nadal who is master over the clay courtesy of the loaded topsun forearm. Grand slams require skill, energy, computence, consistency and endurance. The latter speaks of being mentally zoned in. It is also the one that can give you victory even when you are not playing well. Federer might flatter to deceive with all the early flashy glamour shots, but I just do not think he has it mentally to endure over a long journey as he is given one more extra short to contend with. In conclusion the line through the Wawrinka and Raonic victories do not sway me the slightest and with Fed almost being clear public bet, I am picking Djokovic to be our champ at the end of it all. Experience has told me that the public never win!!!!!
 

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Another exemplary post by mebit where he knows everything and everyone else is wrong. Mebit did you pay up after the Lopez incident?
 

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Anyway as I said I will stick with Federer but I wont bet today. This time last year I went in very heavy on Joker as I couldnt see any other outcome whatsoever at any point in that match and it cost me bigtime. I remember Murray going from 40-0 to 40-A when serving for the match and I was still nearly expecting him to choke. Good luck everyone today, especially Fed backers.
 
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