[Nole Rules]

Yeah, I agree with this take. If both serve around 65% like you're saying here, it really comes down to the finer details on the day, and that includes shot selection, mental toughness, and who handles the pressure better. And yes, to be honest, I also felt like Sinner's baseline edge isn't as clear anymore, at least in that final, especially with Alca keeping that higher % level and avoiding drifting into lapses he used to before. What makes it interesting is that both can stress each other out in different ways: Sinner with depth and pace, Alca with variety and quick switches from defence to offence. That's the exact reason why their matches have often felt like a coin flip to me recently.

Yes. Sinner frustrates Alcaraz by robbing him of time on the ball with his consistent depth and power (at least off clay). Alcaraz was visibly frustrated by this in Wimbly but in USO he clearly accepted this aspect of the game vs Sinner and tried to stay more positive even after the 2nd set. He prepared well for this aspect, but obviously, it's still consistent pressure, and he can easily get frustrated again when Sinner plays better against him next time. Alcaraz's counter is frustrating/stressing Sinner with being a wall that can return too many bombs, variety (low or very high balls), but also forces errors with his power whenever he gets a chance. Defence to offence transition, as you said. So yeah, both deal with different types of frustration on the court. The serve obviously makes executing their plans much easier so it's a big factor in this match-up.

 

[Nole Rules]

Yes, and no. Nadal's case was different in a certain way, which you mentioned correctly: he felt pain while serving like that. With Alca, it doesn't look like a physical limitation to me either (or at least for now), so the question is more about whether he can keep repeating the same serving level mentally and technically. Serving that well over two weeks at the USO is one thing, but sustaining it through different surfaces, conditions, and pressure moments across the season is another challenge.

Moreover, and this is also something I noticed, the USO courts this year seemed to really reward his serve to an extent I haven't seen before in his case: he was getting a lot of free points, which might not translate quite as directly to, say, slower clay or even some grass courts with a lower bounce. At the same time, though, you correctly mentioned another thing: his service has definitely improved compared to 2024, or even to the first 2-3 months of 2025, and the fact that he committed to the serve motion change and worked on its speed and placement suggests it wasn't just a temporary experiment, but more of a long-term strategy.

However, I think the real challenge for him will be whether he can find a 'solid baseline' version of the serve that holds up, even if the USO performance won't be repeated every week. If he can keep that, it should significantly change the entire dynamic of his game. And like you said about Sinner: serve can sometimes fade or look less effective without a clear explanation, so it's something Alca should be aware of as well.

We will have to wait and see how Alcaraz serves after USO. That's all we can say atm. It will be interesting to see. He can still have bad serving days and that's normal but the overall quality should stay similar to his USO serve if he wants to win more slams. It would be weird if his serve gets worse like Sinner's for no apparent reason.

 

[Nole Rules]

If Sinner has Zverev's body strength (or even close to it), I have no doubt Sinner would be serving bombs consistently. Z has diabetes, but still worked hard to gain muscle and elite strength (shame that doesn't translate to his game apart from the serve, however). I still think Sinner can benefit from more strength training and conditioning.

Sascha worked very hard to be this good.

 

[Nole Rules]

He was able to do that in 2024 and at AO as well to some extent. It all went downhill after the suspension I believe. Lack of matches and active playing took its toll on him.

Seems like suspension is the only explanation for the serve issues at this point but even that explanation is kind of strange since his ground game was unaffected. Maybe he does have a new chronic injury he doesn't want to talk about that only affects the serve...

 

[Nole Rules]

I think his problem is being injury-prone, rather than match endurance. He falls and suddenly he has a niggling pain somewhere which affects his tournament-winning prospects.

He's certainly less prone to injury than 2-3 years ago so hopefully he keeps building himself up.

Agreed. He improved a lot for sure and probably can improve further. He clearly had some physical issues in the USO, which probably affected his serve. My argument is that in order to lower the frequency of these nagging injuries, more conditioning is perhaps worth considering. At some point, bad luck becomes a lack of preparation. My suggestion here is obviously too radical, and he probably can't skip Turin for some BS reason just to train more, but it would serve him to invest more in conditioning to reduce injury chances in the future. The issue with the tennis season is that there isn't enough space to focus more on conditioning and recovery time. So they have to work around that to improve fitness-wise.

 

[Nole Rules]

I don't know about this take. Dude had a fine season and even against Alcaraz apart from USO which was seemingly a result of Team Alcaraz doing their homework after Wimbledon. Next time we'll see what Team Sinner have potentially been working on. They are presumably in the lab as we speak, just like Team Alcaraz were after Wimbledon. You don't need any extra breaks but can use these regular breaks. And it would be a weird move particularly now also for the reason that this is traditionally a good part of the season for Sinner. Finished off last year winning Shanghai, Six Kings, Tour Finals and the Davis Cup B2B2B2B. After that you can then continue your development and tweaks also during the normal off-season.

This is a fair take. I'm curious to see what Team Sinner does because if these nagging injuries keep happening, then this suggests some lack of conditioning to some extent. It's not just bad luck (although bad luck happens, of course). I also wonder if he can serve very hard consistently without any shoulder issues, because he might need to do that against Alcaraz, who is the best on tour at returning first serves. The other option is to be a proper and reliable spot server like Djokovic or Federer without needing to rely on that much pace.

 

[Nole Rules]

Your guy was winning slams looking like Trevor Reznik

Djokovic had a much thicker/stronger lower body than Sinner, though. I think he had a stronger core overall. That can help prevent injuries and absorb/handle some of the damage/impact that comes from all that sliding, don't you think? Sinner matches his flexibility but not overall body strength and durability yet I think. Big 4 had very strong bases. But Sinner you see him limp often after very long rallies with Alcaraz. His hip is already having issues at this age. Maybe too much pressure on his joints and lack of muscle doesn't help.

Upper body wise, maybe Sinner has enough muscle, but he needs to be very fit enough to minimize potential elbow and shoulder issues. Can he serve as hard as Alcaraz consistently without any drop in pace? His serving pace dropped in the USO final or SF. It could be due to an ab injury, but doesn't that suggest some lack of conditioning to some level if true?

 

[Nole Rules]

If Sinner wants to be greater, he needs proper strength training and conditioning overall @Muzzafan. There is no other way. Prime Murray would wear him down with no problem (more often than not). Murray just happened to play in a much stronger era against three freaks (also freaks fitness-wise). Alcaraz's fitness is big 4 level. Sinner gotta catch up.

 

[Nole Rules]

You can work on your shots, improve your weapons and your body. In this regard dna and nature play a big role, though. As much as you can train you’ll never change the main structure of your body and certain results are unachievable.

Putting on more mass on some skeletons might increase risk of injuries and worsen posture.

Interesting perspective and valid. There is only so much one can do to improve their fitness. Genetics play a big role. Some players are just stronger and more athletic. But it's also impossible to know for sure that Sinner did everything he could to maximize his strength. Maybe he can add more muscle and strength without compromising something in his game. Wasn't Murray fairly skinny when he was a teen and got his best results after bulking up and improving his fitness overall? I'm not really sure how many expected Murray to be a fitness freak back then. Same with Djokovic before 2010.

 

[Nole Rules]

So what if Sinner improves his service like Alca did (supposed USO wasn't just a one-time serving wonder for Alca, of course)?

If let's say both serve at 65% during a match, then it's likely a very close match imo, and ROS/baseline performance/clutchness determines the winner on the day probably. It's only logical that it goes that way due to how close they are in most aspects. I feel Sinner's superiority over Alcaraz from the baseline isn't really as big as people make it out to be. Not anymore, at least if Alcaraz keeps playing better % tennis like in USO and not fooling around too much. Alcaraz is clearly fast enough to defend Sinner's deep bombs and occasionally cause him to overhit. Not every time this works, of course, but enough times to stress Sinner and force him to stay as sharp as possible to win. He can also force errors with his FH and use slices to set up something. Both need to play great to win, usually. There are no gifts. That's the bottom line.

 

[Nole Rules]

But will it be a thing in the following tournaments as well? Wasn't the USO just a one-time wonder, serving almost perfectly/flawlessly? Only time will tell more.

You mean, will it be like Nadal's USO 2010 serve case? Nadal only stopped serving like that due to pain. Carlos feels no pain when serving, as far as I know. And Nadal fans will tell you that Alcaraz's serve is clearly better even outside USO 2025. He improved the serve this year, but the peak clearly happened in this USO. He needed time to fully master the new motion. It's a fair point still, so we will see what happens. After all, Sinner's serve disappeared strangely too after being reliable in late 2023 and 2024. Luckily for him, he had a good serving day in a big match (Wimbledon final).

 

[Nole Rules]

He looked great at RG overall . Wimbledon I think he would have lost to Dimitrov straight sets. He really looked clueless against variety

Because Dimitrov was serving bombs and using the slice BH perfectly to set up his FH, but he is old and his body couldn't take the consistent big serving eventually. But we still don't know how that match would end up anyway, and it seems Sinner was a bit compromised with the elbow. Still very lucky. But someone as fit as Alcaraz can handle serving that big consistently, I believe. Sinner need to be fit enough to serve big consistently and comfortably.

And yes, he should improve at dealing with variety. But if he can't use variety, then his best option is just to juice up that serve and make his default game plan even harder to beat via better rally tolerance. That can only happen if he upgrades his fitness and strength further imo. Because the longer the rally, the better it is for Carlos, who can wear him down eventually.

I was very impressed by Sinner's fitness in FO final. He looked a bit tired at some points, but caught a 2nd wind to come back in the 5th. But how often can he deliver that level of fitness in a final? We don't know, but he already showed physical fragility. Consistent long battles are not suitable for Sinner. His best chance is beating Alcaraz in a fairly quick 4 sets. That's too much pressure because Alcaraz can easily make it a battle of attrition if Sinner isn't playing perfectly.

Before I was wrongly assuming that only Alcaraz has to play perfectly vs Sinner to win, but imo it's also the other way around as well. There is equal pressure on Sinner to play perfectly to beat Alcaraz as well, especially after Alcaraz improved his serve now.

 

[Nole Rules]

He already had off 3 months this year or whatever and still didn't fix his rotten serve

And that helped him peak for FO and Wimbledon (at least from the baseline). I would say that ban paid off, but his fitness and strength level are still not Big 4 level or Sampras level. He needs more strength training. That chicken wing shoulder of his isn't ideal for consistent big serving anyway. It's too weak. He needs to gain more muscle and strength, not just better technique on serve; otherwise, Alcaraz will be serving bigger than him more consistently.

 

[Nole Rules]

Too much obsession over this, man. It's borderline (and by borderline I mean full-blown) hilarious

I get that but we need a third force badly. It's not my fault. Feels it's only interesting to talk about Alcaraz and Sinner these days, and if not, then talking about past eras/matches. The current field stinks too much to take anyone seriously, unfortunately. I had big hopes for Draper, but he is made of glass.

 

[Nole Rules]

🤨

No hidden agenda behind this post. If Sinner decides to push himself hard in the rest of the year, he might get n.1 but at what cost? He will have less time to recover and improve for next season. That's good for Alcaraz. One could easily argue that the ban actually helped Sinner rest and give his best in RG and Wimbledon this season. It's not easy to produce that level all year. But if he improves his fitness more, however, he can play more at that level during the year and serve better more consistently.

 

[Nole Rules]

If that's too long to read, here is the summary: Alcaraz has big 4 level fitness and strength. Sinner is not quite there yet despite having big 4-type consistency. He needs to put more hours in the gym.