[FilipoSVK]

This is a fair take. I'm curious to see what Team Sinner does because if these nagging injuries keep happening, then this suggests some lack of conditioning to some extent. It's not just bad luck (although bad luck happens, of course). I also wonder if he can serve very hard consistently without any shoulder issues, because he might need to do that against Alcaraz, who is the best on tour at returning first serves. The other option is to be a proper and reliable spot server like Djokovic or Federer without needing to rely on that much pace.

He was able to do that in 2024 and at AO as well to some extent. It all went downhill after the suspension I believe. Lack of matches and active playing took its toll on him.

 

[FilipoSVK]

Sinner times

If I'm not mistaken, this guy helped Mensik before Miami, and he eventually won the whole thing. Can't be a coincidence 😀

 

[FilipoSVK]

If let's say both serve at 65% during a match, then it's likely a very close match imo, and ROS/baseline performance/clutchness determines the winner on the day probably. It's only logical that it goes that way due to how close they are in most aspects. I feel Sinner's superiority over Alcaraz from the baseline isn't really as big as people make it out to be. Not anymore, at least if Alcaraz keeps playing better % tennis like in USO and not fooling around too much. Alcaraz is clearly fast enough to defend Sinner's deep bombs and occasionally cause him to overhit. Not every time this works, of course, but enough times to stress Sinner and force him to stay as sharp as possible to win. He can also force errors with his FH and use slices to set up something. Both need to play great to win, usually. There are no gifts. That's the bottom line.

Yeah, I agree with this take. If both serve around 65% like you're saying here, it really comes down to the finer details on the day, and that includes shot selection, mental toughness, and who handles the pressure better. And yes, to be honest, I also felt like Sinner's baseline edge isn't as clear anymore, at least in that final, especially with Alca keeping that higher % level and avoiding drifting into lapses he used to before. What makes it interesting is that both can stress each other out in different ways: Sinner with depth and pace, Alca with variety and quick switches from defence to offence. That's the exact reason why their matches have often felt like a coin flip to me recently.

 

[FilipoSVK]

You mean, will it be like Nadal's USO 2010 serve case? Nadal only stopped serving like that due to pain. Carlos feels no pain when serving, as far as I know. And Nadal fans will tell you that Alcaraz's serve is clearly better even outside USO 2025. He improved the serve this year, but the peak clearly happened in this USO. He needed time to fully master the new motion. It's a fair point still, so we will see what happens. After all, Sinner's serve disappeared strangely too after being reliable in late 2023 and 2024. Luckily for him, he had a good serving day in a big match (Wimbledon final).

Yes, and no. Nadal's case was different in a certain way, which you mentioned correctly: he felt pain while serving like that. With Alca, it doesn't look like a physical limitation to me either (or at least for now), so the question is more about whether he can keep repeating the same serving level mentally and technically. Serving that well over two weeks at the USO is one thing, but sustaining it through different surfaces, conditions, and pressure moments across the season is another challenge.

Moreover, and this is also something I noticed, the USO courts this year seemed to really reward his serve to an extent I haven't seen before in his case: he was getting a lot of free points, which might not translate quite as directly to, say, slower clay or even some grass courts with a lower bounce. At the same time, though, you correctly mentioned another thing: his service has definitely improved compared to 2024, or even to the first 2-3 months of 2025, and the fact that he committed to the serve motion change and worked on its speed and placement suggests it wasn't just a temporary experiment, but more of a long-term strategy.

However, I think the real challenge for him will be whether he can find a 'solid baseline' version of the serve that holds up, even if the USO performance won't be repeated every week. If he can keep that, it should significantly change the entire dynamic of his game. And like you said about Sinner: serve can sometimes fade or look less effective without a clear explanation, so it's something Alca should be aware of as well.

 

[FilipoSVK]

there must be some truth to it judging by his US Open performance basically all tournament. He was the heavy heavy odds on favorite and looked pretty bad honestly

I believe it was just a very bad day at the office. However, if it also continues in Beijing next week, I'll start to be concerned as well.

 

[FilipoSVK]

I thought heard he was already having shoulder issues? Thats not good and could prevent him for ever developing a great serve

I've heard the same thing numerous times, but only Sinner himself and his team know where the truth is.

 

[FilipoSVK]

Sinner has two choices basically. Either get a better return of serve and break more often or get a great serve himself. If not, he may never win another slam (If Alcaraz has actually become consistent now and keeps his serve good). Sinner is already 24. After 24-25, thats when the downhill slide begin and he is a little and lanky to make me think hes gonna have some long tennis career and have success into his 30's

So what if Sinner improves his service like Alca did (supposed USO wasn't just a one-time serving wonder for Alca, of course)?

 

[FilipoSVK]

Before I was wrongly assuming that only Alcaraz has to play perfectly vs Sinner to win, but imo it's also the other way around as well. There is equal pressure on Sinner to play perfectly to beat Alcaraz as well, especially after Alcaraz improved his serve now.

But will it be a thing in the following tournaments as well? Wasn't the USO just a one-time wonder, serving almost perfectly/flawlessly? Only time will tell more.

 

[FilipoSVK]

Med plays atp 250 this week no?

Yes, he plays Hangzhou. He's in QFs now and will play against Wu.

 

[FilipoSVK]

He is already in Beijing

Same as Med. The worst thing, though, is that Bonzi has decided to change tournaments and play there instead of Tokyo due to some unknown reason. F*ck off!

 

[FilipoSVK]

No hidden agenda behind this post. If Sinner decides to push himself hard in the rest of the year, he might get n.1 but at what cost? He will have less time to recover and improve for next season. That's good for Alcaraz. One could easily argue that the ban actually helped Sinner rest and give his best in RG and Wimbledon this season. It's not easy to produce that level all year. But if he improves his fitness more, however, he can play more at that level during the year and serve better more consistently.

I accidentally posted the post with just the emoji, it's edited now 🤣 sorry for the confusion

 

[FilipoSVK]

Just the time-off can be more useless than useful. Nothing can replace active playing in matches and tournaments with occasional week or two off.